MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
Open MBSonMND Dashboard | ||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Pricing as of 4:01 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
3:33PM :
ALERT:
Moderate Weakness Persists But Holding
Although we're technically in the after hours session as far as the official bond market close, things are still somewhat active. 10yr yields and FNCL 4.5's are both near their worst levels of the day with the former at 3.457 and the later at 101-19. Reprices for the worse are still a risk, and we've seen a few so far. If 10's rise above current levels and MBS fall to 101-18 or lower, reprice risk increases, especially for those who haven't seen them yet.
3:24PM :
Loan Pricing Update: Best Ex Improves After Reprices
C30 loan pricing has improved on average by another 28.3bps today. The largest rebate gains are seen in note rates below 4.75%. After reprices for the better today, the Best Execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate has improved to 4.875%. For anyone who says lenders are "holding out" on rebate, we've noted a tightening of primary/secondary spreads this week which means lenders are actively attempting to attract new locks. Of course this is a high level overview of the five major lenders which means it is possible that lenders who are lower in the supply chain have indeed added extra juice (margin) to their rate sheets to reduce fallout.
2:40PM :
Fed Dissenter Hoenig Plans to Step Down
Marketwatch is reporting that Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, a noted hawk, will step down in October at the mandatory retirement age of 65. "Hoenig is blazing a trail as an outspoken critic of the Fed’s innovative quantitative-easing monetary policy, warning that the Fed’s zero interest rate policy and bond-buying program is a dangerous gamble that is likely to create asset bubbles in future years."
2:32PM :
Obama Pushes Back on Republican Bid to End HAMP
(Reuters) - The Obama administration on Thursday pushed back against Republican moves to kill several of its foreclosure prevention programs, saying they would close the door on struggling homeowners facing the worst U.S. housing crisis in generations. "The administration remains committed to reaching eligible homeowners to give them every opportunity to avoid foreclosure and will continue working to make our programs as effective as possible," an Obama administration spokesperson said on Thursday. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives earlier announced they would consider four bills aimed at killing different administration efforts to keep borrowers in their homes. (corbett.daly@thomsonreuters.com)
2:29PM :
ALERT:
Volatility Picking Back Up As Stock Lever Leads Bonds To Weaker Levels
Bonds were quite content with a sub-1300 S&P, but when the index recently shot from 1294 to 1303, bonds followed with higher yields and lower prices in MBS. 10yr notes haven't taken long in moving from their best levels of the day closer to their worst. FNCL 4.5's have fallen almost straight down to 101-19, near their weakest levels of the day. This is the highest risk of reprices for the worse so far today.
2:23PM :
Ex-TBW Treasurer Pleads Guilty in Fraud Case
The former treasurer of mortgage lender Taylor, Bean & Whitaker pleaded guilty Thursday to conspiring to commit bank, wire and securities fraud in connection with a $1.9 billion scheme that contributed to the failures of Alabama's Colonial Bank and Taylor, Bean & Whitaker.
Florida resident Desiree Brown pleaded guilty in Virginia court and now faces a maximum of 30 years in prison, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. She is scheduled for sentencing June 10.
According to court documents, Brown admitted that from late 2003 to August 2009, she and her co-conspirators were players in a scheme to defraud to get funding for TBW to cover operations-related expenses. They at one point tried to obtain $570 million worth of taxpayer funding through the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Their scheme generated money for TBW through fictitious sales of mortgage loans to Colonial Bank, as Brown and co-conspirators sent the bank mortgage data for loans that didn't exist or that TBW had already committed or sold to other investors, the Justice Department said. They also caused TBW to sell fictitious trades to Colonial Bank that had no pools of loans collateralizing them.
2:14PM :
Post-Auction Trading Still Active and Two-Way, But Favoring MBS
FNCL 4.5's were able to put in a support bounce at 101-22 and make it to their highs of the day at 101-25. They're just off those highs now at 101-23. In a similar move, 10yr notes fell to their lows of the day at 3.415 and have since rebounded, now threatening to break into 3.43. Overall, the environment is more positive than not, and reprices for the better may be seen. Volatility is calming down somewhat, but the market remains active and prone to rapid movement. The only implication for originators is that we remain vigilant and closely in-tune with ongoing changes in MBS price. If 10's cross the mid 3.43's, we could see additional pressure on MBS prices.
1:13PM :
New MBS Commentary Post
1:07PM :
ALERT:
Initial Reaction To Auction Bringing MBS Prices Lower
Still very much too soon to tell if prices will ultimately end up lower when the dust settles, but the first major move following the auction is a downtick in FNCL 4.5's to 101-22 from highs of 101-25.
1:03PM :
DATA: 7 yr Auction Results
U.S. SELLS $29 BLN 7-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 2.854 PCT, AWARDS 75.76 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH *** 7-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.86, NON-COMP BIDS $20.64 MLN *** PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE $13.29 BLN OF 7-YEAR NOTES SALE, INDIRECT $14.39 BLN
12:24PM :
Heavy Resistance At 3.42 Moderates Markets Ahead Of Auction
The bond market collided with it's most important resistance level at a 10yr note level of 3.42. FNCL 4.5's are just a touch off their highs of 101-24, currently at 101-22+. No major pull-back yet, and both markets still strong. Some pre-auction positioning is possible. but not to be feared unless otherwise noted.
11:46AM :
S&P to Withdraw Rating On US Government
*** S&P CONVERTS RATINGS ON U.S. GOVERNMENT TO UNSOLICITED RATINGS *** SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE TO RATE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND CLASSIFY THE RATINGS AS "UNSOLICITED" *** S&P SAYS WILL WITHDRAW ALL ITS RATINGS ON THE U.S. GOVERNMENT ON MAY 24 *** S&P SAYS DECISION DOES NOT CHANGE ITS VIEW OF CREDITWORTHINESS OF U.S, AAA/STABLE/A-1+ RATINGS ON THE U.S. GOV'T REMAIN UNCHANGED
11:43AM :
ALERT:
Best Levels Of The Day For MBS And Treasuries. Reprices Reported
10's have broken lower from their earlier range and have inched into their best territory of the day with a 10yr yield at 3.426. FNCL 4.5's meanwhile have pushed higher to 101-23, 10 ticks higher on the day. Both are at their best levels of the day. We've seen one reprice for the better so far and it's possible other lenders will follow suit even ahead of the 7yr note auction. In breaking news that may be helping give a lift to bonds, S&P just announced they will withdraw all their current ratings of the US government and instead classify the ratings as "unsolicited."
11:18AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
11:12AM :
MBS Staying Stong Near Highs
Benchmark 10yr notes are at 3.438 currently, just below their recent range but not yet testing more significant lows toward 3.42. FNCL 4.5's are up 7 ticks on the day at 101-21 and are maintaining a tight range. No reprice risk yet, so we're continuing to hold out until either the range breaks or auction time provides us an indication of which way things might move.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
Adam Quinones : "and primary/secondary spreads are not as wide as you guys think either. I say that based on the comments ive seen saying lenders are being stingy"
Adam Quinones : "Welp...with today's loan pricing improvements...best ex has improved to 4.875% on C30 paper"
Adam Quinones : "14:37 24Feb11 RTRS-OIL PRODUCTION IN LIBYA EXPECTED TO SHUT DOWN COMPLETELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD-BOFA MERRILL LYNCH
"
Matthew Graham : "note the "MIGHT" because coming to such a conclusion based on a few hours of trading is ill-advised, but if I was deciding lock v float on my own pipeline today, that would be a looming factor"
Matthew Graham : "yeah, pretty likely we'll see reprices for the worse soon, and potentially unfriendly mid term chart that MIGHT force bonds to retrench and reaffirm some support slightly higher in yield. "
George Rodgers : "Locked"
Bert Swyers : "i just locked 2"
George Rodgers : "Steady....."
Victor Burek : "mine too"
Gus Floropoulos : "not yet...but im ready to if we nosedive"
Bert Swyers : "you locking Gus?"
Matthew Graham : "in terms of 10 minute increments, not yet matching post-auction volume. aka: more concentrated"
Matthew Graham : "biggest 5 minute tally so far today"
Matthew Graham : "yes gus"
Gus Floropoulos : "volume spike?"
Matthew Graham : "next support = 3.446"
Adam Quinones : "stocks rebounding."
Matthew Graham : "yeah, FTS is a component of a bigger picture, but we don't think it's the whole picture"
Adam Quinones : "it implies a shift in momentum "
Adam Quinones : "our take is the flatter shape of the yield curve implies more than just a flight to safety"
Andrew Benson : "my take is that it's mostly the old flight to safety, which is still good, but less so."
Dean Gorenflo : "In most states, lenders are willing to waive escrows for a fee—usually 1/4 to 3/8 of a point. However, in Washington, D.C., Illinois, New York, and Oregon lenders are barred from charging a waiver fee, which means that they may be less willing to waive escrows in those states."
Andrew Benson : "so... is all this move from the past week all from the middle east turmoil? or is any of it real."
Matt Hodges : "York - they are a good tool to use if your client is shopping you against a VHDA loan, btw - much better terms for the FHA and the 401k loan"
Dean Gorenflo : "contingent liability, so no"
John Paul Mulchay : "nope. it's their own money and if they don't pay it back, the only consequence is a tax bill"
John Rodgers : "no, not on govy"
Jason York : "aren't they counted against you on all loans?"
Bert Swyers : "we have really never been serious about breaking foreign dependency"
Victor Burek : "old govt out.. new govt in"
Victor Burek : "look at the flip side"
Bert Swyers : "yes"
Victor Burek : "you mean oil going higher?"
Bert Swyers : "because their people are just fed up and they cant be bribed anymore, gonna cost us alot of $$$. "
Victor Burek : "why is that?"
Bert Swyers : "you know turning a blind eye to what these crazy middle east dictators were doing as long as the pumps kept flowing is really gonna come back to bite us in the rear"
Mike Drews : "a confirmed of 3.42 is pretty important"
Gus Floropoulos : "major crossing pt on 10's. great article"
Adam Quinones : "Jason that was for you"
Adam Quinones : "REMINDER, READ THIS POST: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/200085.aspx"
Jason Sheaffer : "i think traders are testing it out kinda like how you dip your toe into a swimming pool before jumping in."
Adam Quinones : "Plain and Simple: A little better than average but not a barnburner. Direct bidders have been shying away from the 7-year sector since late October, just before QEII was announced. Indirects, largely viewed as a barometer of overseas demand, have been pretty stable bidders of longer duration debt, presumably reflecting a continued chase for yield. If interest rates weren't working toward a bullish technical shift, this auction would have been average at best. But when you consider the speed and"
Dustin McAlister : "gmac reporice"
JTB : "I'm going to believe that after the drop in yields an "average" auction is reason for further rallying. Believe what you want, is my general strategy."
Tom Bartlett : "pf improved .125"
Rob Clark : "pf 1/8 better"
Ira Selwin : "FAMC price improvement"
Matthew Graham : "S&P SAYS DECISION DOES NOT CHANGE ITS VIEW OF CREDITWORTHINESS OF U.S, AAA/STABLE/A-1+ RATINGS ON THE U.S. GOV'T REMAIN UNCHANGED "
Matthew Graham : "S&P SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE TO RATE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND CLASSIFY THE RATINGS AS "UNSOLICITED" "
Matthew Graham : " S&P CONVERTS RATINGS ON U.S. GOVERNMENT TO UNSOLICITED RATINGS "