MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
93-26 : -0-12
FNMA 4.0
97-23 : -0-12
FNMA 4.5
101-00 : -0-10
FNMA 5.0
103-26 : -0-09
GNMA 3.5
94-22 : -0-08
GNMA 4.0
99-01 : -0-12
GNMA 4.5
102-06 : -0-10
GNMA 5.0
105-01 : -0-08
FHLMC 3.5
93-21 : -0-11
FHLMC 4.0
97-20 : -0-11
FHLMC 4.5
100-28 : -0-10
FHLMC 5.0
103-21 : -0-08
Pricing as of 11:03 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
11:03AM  :  ALERT: 10's Breaking! More Danger!
The high yields keep getting higher. Now pushing up into 3.64 at times. This continues to put pressure on MBS to give up their 101 handle, and continues to keep reprice risk elevated.
10:50AM  :  Stocks Slide. Bonds Reluctant To Follow
The S&P has moved straight down from 1308 to 1304 in the last few minutes, and although 10yr yields have seen a few bounces at the highs, there is no major movement that mirrors stocks. Current yields are 3.63, while FNCL 4.5's hover around 101-00. Reuters reports of an impending statement on Egyptian State TV.
10:26AM  :  ALERT: FNCL 4.5's Fall To Lows Of The Day As 10's Rise
10yr yields broke higher than their previous highs and moved up to 3.636. FNCL 4.5's just ticked into a 100 handle for the first time since 12/15/10. Reprices for the worse are possible on this weakness. For reference, 12/15's lows were at 100-15.
10:03AM  :  10's Testing Weak Levels As Stocks Rebound
Earlier this morning 10yr yields got supportive bounces at 3.602 and have returned to test that level again. MBS have held up quite well and are currently down only 5 ticks in FNCL 4.5's, but that could change if 10's creep into the 3.6's. All this however, is put into perspective by the fact that volume has already come and gone in support of 3.60. None of the volume we are seeing recently is even remotely close to that which was seen during the first support bounces.
9:20AM  :  Bonds Fighting To Get Back To Pre-NFP Levels
The worst of the selling in bonds thus far took the 10yr note over 3.62. Shortly after getting back below 3.602, yields rose again and tested 3.60 numerous times and held. But they're facing a challenge in the other direction, presented by 3.58 (3.579 to be more specific), and have not been able to confirm a break below there, though it is currently being tested. So far, the dominant post-data trend is one of gradually lower highs in yields, and this trend is set to collide with the pre-NFP highs at 3.569 (it already did once and rapidly bounced back into the trend). Basically, 10's will have to get back under 3.57 soon in order for this trend to continue. If they don't, 3.57 will gain strength as a resistance level. Despite all this, FNCL 4.5 MBS are doing fair, currently down only 5 ticks at 101-05. The reprice scene really depends a lot on where and when a particular lender came out with pricing this morning. But we can tell you there is not a decidedly negative momentum in MBS that we normally see precede reprices for the worse.
8:42AM  :  Despite Weaker Headline Payrolls, "Caveats" Hurting Bonds
If the market were currently trading strictly on the headline NFP number, we'd likely be experiencing a healthy rally, but there are enough "yeah buts" embedded in the release for bonds to be taking a moderate beating at the moment. The most notable caveat is that the huge comparative loss in construction jobs may have been caused by the severe weather. Courier/Messenger Jobs also plummeted, and also, might be chalked up to bad weather. Beyond that, the jobless rate is the lowest since April 2009 and the gain in factory jobs is the largest since August 1998, both factoids that put wind in the sails of the recovery freight train. The 10yr note is at 3.608 and FNCL 4.5's have fallen to 101-02. If you had pricing this morning for some strange reason, it will be getting worse soon.
8:38AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
8:34AM  :  Non-Farm-Payrolls Misses Consensus, But With A Caveat
JAN NONFARM PAYROLLS +36,000 (CONSENSUS +145,000) VS DEC +121,000 (PREV +103,000), NOV +93,000 (PREV +71,000) ---- PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS +50,000 (CONS +155,000), DEC +139,000 (PREV +113,000) ----GOVERNMENT JOBS -14,000 VS DEC -18,000 (PREV -10,000) ---- JOBLESS RATE 9.0 PCT (CONSENSUS 9.5 PCT) VS DEC 9.4 PCT (PREV 9.4 PCT) ---- AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ALL PRIVATE WORKERS +0.4 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT) VS DEC +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1), TO $22.86 VS DEC $22.78; JAN YEAR-ON-YEAR EARNINGS +1.9 PCT ---- AVERAGE WORKWK ALL PRIVATE WORKERS 34.2 HRS (CONS 34.3 PCT) VS DEC 34.3 HRS (PREV 34.3), FACTORY 40.5 VS 40.4, FACTORY OVERTIME 3.1 VS 3.1 ---- FACTORY JOBS +49,000 (CONS. +9,000) VS DEC +14,000 (PREV +10,000) ---- GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS +18,000, CONSTRUCTION -32,000, PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS +32,000, RETAIL +28,000 ---- ANNUAL REVISION CUTS 378,000 JOBS FROM MARCH 2010 NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LEVEL VS. EARLY OCT. ESTIMATE OF -366,000
8:31AM  :  ALERT: JAN NONFARM PAYROLLS +36,000 (CONSENSUS +145,000) VS DEC +121,000 (PREV +103,000), NOV +93,000 (PREV +71,000)
(Source: Reuters) Full Details To Follow
7:11AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Jason York  :  "to all of those that are feeling miserable today because of the market, make sure you leave it at the office and don't take it with you over the weekend, and ruin the time you have with your family"
Adam Quinones  :  "Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey"
Adam Quinones  :  "it will be Wall Street vs. Main Street"
Adam Quinones  :  "just wait. if entitlements are attacked. we're in trouble."
Adam Quinones  :  "ENTITLEMENTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE"
Adam Quinones  :  "all dependent on how vocal the budget deficit battle gets on Capitol Hill"
JTB  :  "you think? Seems like we're further from it than we should be."
Adam Quinones  :  "what scares me is the US is very susceptible to that civil instability right now"
Adam Quinones  :  "this year it seems to be civil instability"
Adam Quinones  :  "last year it was a steady drip of default risk abroad"
Adam Quinones  :  "i wonder the same thing"
JTB  :  "I read you loud and clear AQ, but the question seems to be "What's it gonna take? When is enough enough?" "
Adam Quinones  :  "the ledge you saw in loan pricing between 4.875 and 4.75 reflects the ledge in the MBS/bond market."
Adam Quinones  :  "i agree...an accumulation "
JTB  :  "I'd say it seems that there has been a lot of bond friendly activity, Egypt, EU debt, 3 straight misses on NFP...not one major catalyst, but a cumulative effect seemed large enough."
Adam Quinones  :  "yeh!"
JTB  :  "AQ, with that said...are we going to need a MAJOR catalyst to get things going lower in yield? It seems like there is a VERY strong bias for higher rates at this point. "
Adam Quinones  :  "the market was biased in favor of higher rates. least amount of resistance was to trade prices even lower."
Adam Quinones  :  "pre-data positioning Terry"
Terry Colabrese  :  "I just got done with a client meeting. What the heck is driving this the wrong way?? MG, help!"
Matthew Graham  :  "10's testing 3.602 again"
Terry Colabrese  :  "Wow! WF pricing is off .625 from yesterday!"
Matthew Graham  :  "10's breaking through for a test!"
Matthew Graham  :  "10's retesting pivot!"
Matthew Graham  :  "very nice Frank"
Frank Ceizyk  :  "i get to look psychic this morning"
Frank Ceizyk  :  "I have to say thank you mbs on mnd--explained where we were on the range using mg/aq breakout potential language--locked purchase in--he loves the mbs tech talk and graphs--engineering manager tech firm here--3rd loan for him in 3 months (purchasing investment prop)--15 closed referrals from him since august"
Scott Valins  :  "The unemployment rate among those with less than a high school diploma was 14.2 percent, while the rate among those with a bachelor’s degree or higher was 4.2 percent."
Victor Burek  :  "european stocks have moved lower since nfp"
Chris Kopec  :  "3rd straight miss on NFP.....next month, "the dog ate it"?"
Chris Kopec  :  "I've got my rally cap one.....I simply can't believe that sober minds will look at 36k jobs as a win."
Matthew Graham  :  "but techs just turned bullishly past that 23% mark"
Matthew Graham  :  "plus, a bit of rejection at 3.60+... quite a few support bounces there... looks like 3.60+ vs 3.58 "
Matthew Graham  :  "now testing 23% retracement of post NFP range, have not broken any lower than that since the data"