MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
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Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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3:10PM :
Reprices For The Worse Reported And More Possible As MBS Continue To Fall
Both MBS and Treasuries have weakened a bit more after initially finding some support at 101-23 and 3.46 respectively. FNCL 4.5's are currently at 101-21 and 10yr notes at 3.468. If a lender has not yet released a reprice for the worse, they are more and more likely to do so as this weakness persists.
2:13PM :
ALERT:
Reprices For The Worse Possible As MBS Fall
Increase the risk level one more notch as the highs-of-the-day support for 10yr notes at 3.446 were just broken and the uptick in yields is looking directional. FNCL 4.5's have fallen to their lows of the day, and Bill Gross was just on CNBC saying he'd like to see lower bond prices. It's a 1-2-3 punch that, at this point, is LIKELY to result in reprices for the worse.
2:11PM :
Following Beige Book, First Move Is Higher In Yield, But Support Levels In Play
Immediately following the release of the Beige Book, benchmark yields moved higher, from just below 3.43 to 3.438. The latter is a support level which needs to be watched carefully at the moment as it may currently be breaking. Yields initially bounced there and looked as if they would move lower. But now yields are on the rise again, moving to 3.444. MBS have shown the first signs of making their own move for the worse as FNCL 4.5's ticked down from 101-26+ to 101-25. The last vestiges of benchmark support are very near current levels with the highest yield seen this morning at 3.446. We're basically there now, and if that support breaks, reprices for the worse become more likely as long as MBS adjusts to match the curve. At any rate, the current weakness elevates our risk levels, even if reprices for the worse are not guaranteed, they are now possible.
2:08PM :
Bill Gross: Who Will Buy TSYs???
A successful handoff from public to private credit creation has yet to be accomplished, and it is that handoff that ultimately will determine the outlook for real growth and stability. Because quantitative easing has affected all risk spreads, the withdrawal of nearly $1.5 trillion in annualized check writing may have dramatic consequences. Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t? The question really is at what yield, and what are the price repercussions if the adjustments are significant. To visualize the gaping hole that the Fed’s void might have, PIMCO has produced a set of three pie charts that attempt to point out (1) who owns what percentage of the existing stock of Treasuries, (2) who has been buying the annual supply (which closely parallels the Federal deficit) and (3) who might step up to the plate if and when the Fed and its QE bat are retired. The sequential charts 1, 2 and 3 are illuminating, but not necessarily comforting. See the link below...
2:04PM :
DATA FLASH: Beige Book Highlights
*** FED'S BEIGE BOOK SAYS U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUED GROWING AT MODERATE PACE IN JANUARY, EARLY FEBRUARY
*** FED SAYS RETAIL SALES INCREASED IN ALL 12 REGIONAL BANK DISTRICTS AS 2011 BEGAN
*** FED SAYS MANUFACTURERS REPORT GREATER ABILITY TO PASS THROUGH HIGHER COSTS TO CUSTOMERS
*** FED SAYS SOME RETAILERS HAVE ALREADY RAISED PRICES OR INTEND TO DO SO IN NEXT FEW MONTHS
*** FED SAYS WAGE PRESSURES 'MINIMAL' BUT MANUFACTURERS, RETAILERS SAY OTHER COSTS RISING
*** FED SAYS HOME SALES, CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY LOW, SOME DISTRICTS SEE PICKUP IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SALES
*** FED SAYS LENDING STANDARDS STILL TIGHT, JOB MARKETS IMPROVING MODESTLY
*** FED'S BEIGE BOOK PREPARED BY ATLANTA REGIONAL BANK AND BASED ON DATA COLLECTED ON OR BEFORE FEB 18
2:01PM :
New MBS Commentary Post
1:38PM :
Beige Book Preview: Margin Squeeze & Tighter Credit
The Fed will release the Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal information and data on current economic conditions across the country. The findings are NOT THE VIEWS OF FEDERAL RESERVE OFFICIALS...instead, each Federal Reserve bank interviews key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources in their specific district. When the Beige Book was last released we summed up its message with the following headline, "Housing is Weakest Link. Wage Growth Missing. Margin Squeeze Looms". We don't expect to hear much newness when it comes to the housing market but wouldn't be at all surprised if residential lending standards were reported as "tighter". On the whole, we'd expect the large non-skilled portion of the unemployed labor force to keep wage pressures low. The wage growth story is one of gains in productivity and a large pool of unemployed workers who are willing to work for cheaper. Specialized workers could make a case for wage bumps though. Onto the margin squeeze. The Beige Book will update us on the debate among goods producers. TO PASS ALONG HIGHER PRICES OR NOT? Rising food and energy prices combined with increasingly expensive production input costs do not mix well with anemic wage growth and high unemployment rates. Restaurants are certainly struggling with the idea of changing their menus. See what we mean by hard to pass along higher costs? Practical perspective always helps. We hope to learn that jobs for skilled workers are in demand though....that just won't be enough to energize the economy though. Long, slow, recovery. Gotta get educated to innovate and use technology.
1:36PM :
10yr Yields Rising Ahead Of Beige Book
The previously noted 3.423 pivot point broke recently, giving way to higher yields. The 10yr note is currently at 3.429 after recent highs of 3.435. FNCL 4.5's fell to 101-26 very close to the 101-25 level at which we might first risk reprices for the worse. These match the lowest levels seen in the last hour and a half. The nearness to reprice risk levels increases our level of defensiveness heading into the 2pm release of the Beige Book.
1:12PM :
Loan Pricing Update: Primary/Secondary Spread Tightens
On average among the five major lenders, loan pricing is 9.7bps better than it was yesterday...AFTER reprices for the better were awarded. It's interesting to see rebate improve given sideways to slightly lower movement in production MBS prices. What gives? Tighter primary/secondary loan pricing spreads! Secondary desks have reduced the amount of margin that was baked into rate sheets. Presumably to provide some pricing stability for fence-sitting borrowers. Anything to stimulate activity....phones have been quiet on lock desks lately. Anyway, since lenders have already priced aggressively vs. MBS indications today, it's gonna take a little bit extra rally to see reprices for the better. FNCL 4.5s at 102-05 is where we'd hope to see a few recalls. Of course these observations are based on the behavior of the five majors. It is quite possible that your local or regional funding source is operating under different considerations.
12:59PM :
Equities Trying To Drag Bonds Down. MBS Fighting For Mid-Range
Stocks bounced hard off their lows just after the noon hour. This coincided with 3 distinct bounces for treasury yields at 3.409, their lowest levels of the day. As stocks rally off those lows, bond yields have been dragged higher, and MBS prices dragged lower. The damage isn't severe though, FNCL 4.5's are still in the middle of their range today, currently at 101-27. We're seeing some supportive hints in 10yr notes based on a pivot point separating this morning's trading range and recent high yields. More simply, 3.42's were the low end of the range earlier today, then yields broke lower and are now revisiting. Was a floor, now maybe a ceiling... If 10's hold that pivot point, MBS should be able to hold their mid-range as well.
12:01PM :
Bonds Rallying As Stocks Fall
10yr notes just made their first definitive movement outside the trendline that had been providing resistance so far today. Yields are currently at 3.414 and FNCL 4.5's have risen to 101-28. The stock lever could provide additional benefit to the bond market if stocks continue to fall. The S&P failed to break through a pivot-point near 1314 and have been selling off since. The index is now negative on the day, and although not 100% correlated on the day, bonds have been doing a reasonable job of following the stock market this morning.
11:19AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Oliver S. Orlicki : "pfg -125"
Adam Quinones : "being treated as rumor right now BB"
Brett Boyke : "Market talk that Fed's Beige Book is leaked
"
Frank Ceizyk : "But Steve--even if we had the money, we don't have a cohesive message--a singular voice that is focused on the best interest of consumers based on what we do every day for a living..."
Ira Selwin : "Peter - I'll agree to disagree, we all can agree that the form itself sucks, and the design is not to the benefit of the borrower."
Jason York : "I think that things we have no control over should be able to change, like title stuff, appraisal fees, etc. I have to now pay for an appraisal final inspection fee because I didn't disclose it, how can you know something like that?"
Steve : "by accepting the rules fo the game as fair, its the same as saying CONGRESS IS FOR SALE TO THE RICHEST LOBBIES
Frank Ceizyk : "Peter--that all goes back to defining exactly what we do to earn our compensation--and clearly messaging that to the public and the regulatory powers that be"
Steve : "yes seriously, we shouldnt have to lobby congress for whats fair and just based on our monetary holdings and buying votes"
Peter Gladkin : "Just curious.,.. I believe any and all fees should be able to change... sometimes things cost more... HOA certs, appraisal review fees, property in a trust, want to add another borrower halfway through the transaction, an undisclosed which means more work for you the LO... point in fact, you walk into a dentist and they quote you 100 bucks, then find out they have more work than originally plan because you have a cavity that needs filling, guess what that visit going to cost more because more wo"
Adam Quinones : "mortgage professionals defending consumers"
Adam Quinones : "not purse strings"
Adam Quinones : "best interest of consumers"
Adam Quinones : "yeh what if we created a lobby that was geared to that message"
Frank Ceizyk : "Love 'em or hate em the Realtors do a great job of advertising "why you shouldn't make a move with out them""
Frank Ceizyk : "Exactly Peter--if we define that the benefit of the transaction to the consumer warrants a fee change, why can't we change it, if we clearly define the benefit/reason for the change and the consumer understands that benefit?"
Peter Gladkin : "As is NAMB, CAMB, etc..."
Peter Gladkin : "Yes I consider it a UNion"
Adam Quinones : "is NAR a union?"
Steve : "bad lo's werent the cause of this Jason, there are poor employees in EVERY line of work, every profession, and they arent being regulated tot he point of ruin"
Frank Ceizyk : "Let's start with your idea belowVB:: you say the old GFE was good as it was--just add the guideline that fees cannot change...and then explain how that works better than the 3 page lump sum monstrosity we got from RESPA 2010 to protect consumers"
Peter Gladkin : "Adam one unified voice is the voice of a union..."
Adam Quinones : "otherwise we get no where"
Adam Quinones : "doesnt have to be a union"
Adam Quinones : "step 1: UNIFIED VOICE"
Jason York : "congress has to realize that most of the bad LO's have been weeded out, and that we are no longer steering customers to subprime"
Peter Gladkin : "I write my congressman all the time, and have sat down with his chief of staff on two separate occasions to discuss how they are destroying our industry... "
Frank Ceizyk : "First you have to identify what we can do better as an industry than what Congress has done in the name of consumer protection"
Matt Hodges : "do something about it! i went to Richmond, lobbied and got my bill passed. DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!"
Peter Gladkin : "Frank, I agree with you, how do you suggest we take the power... revolution, or running against an incumbent. I flat out refuse to unionize, and consider unions to be the ass-spackle of Satan."
Adam Quinones : "The Mortgage Action Alliance (MAA) is a voluntary, non-partisan and free nationwide grassroots lobbying network of real estate finance industry professionals, affiliated with the Mortgage Bankers Association. MAA is dedicated to strengthening the industry's voice and lobbying power in Washington, DC and state capitals across America. Get involved with MAA to play an active role in how laws and regulations that affect the industry and consumers are created and carried out by lobbying and building"
Adam Quinones : "key point...need a unified lobby. "
Frank Ceizyk : "i don't think it's that they don't care--I just don't think our message has resonated because it has been so "me me me" oriented"
Steve : "until then our silence is compliance"
Frank Ceizyk : "Exactly--I put the link on here about the Inman article because non-mortgage people are suggesting more collective reform than we are as the industry most affected by the government proposed reform"
Victor Burek : "congress doesnt care about our lobby"
Bob V-G : "when "we" unite"
Frank Ceizyk : "Agreed VB...but when are we going to become a proactive entity..rather than a reactive one?"
Victor Burek : "brokers, bankers, LO's can offer great insight but we have been demonized... thus congress wont listen"
Frank Ceizyk : "I don't think you can exclusively blame the gov for this...why didn't the industry propose what you just very simply stated?"
Victor Burek : "but govt attitude is dont let a good crisis go to waste"
Victor Burek : "just add, once you disclose fees they cant change"
Victor Burek : "i proposed keep the old gfe"
Frank Ceizyk : "agreed VB--so what would/did we propose that works better"
Victor Burek : "took a perfectly good 1 page GFE that itemized the exact costs, and turned it inot a 5 page document that doesnt"
Frank Ceizyk : "yes--but is the "do more, do more" syndrome the result of too many LOs that did the bare minimum (or less) for too long?..the current legislation would seem to indicate that"
Jason Zimmer : "it's on page 4 of the 1003 but we still are required to have them sign it 2 more times"
Victor Burek : "but it is always do more, do more do more, but make less"
Jason Zimmer : "my clients sign 3 different forms that give them the right to receive a copy of the appraisal...ridiculous"
Frank Ceizyk : "the compensation rules IMO are the result of a lack of input by us at the originating level to suggest a "consumer protection" mechanism of our own"