MBSonMND: MBS RECAP
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Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST |
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
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3:51PM :
MBS Heading Out Near Highs Despite Late Stock Surge
The stock lever had been fairly connected today until just recently. The S&P packed on a good 7 points in roughly the last 20 minutes but during that same time Benchmark Treasuries have barely budged and Fannie Mae 4.0 coupons shed a mere 2 ticks. That's not enough of a loss to deter any lenders from repricing for the better if they were planning on it 20 minutes ago. That said, not all lenders will be repricing for the better, although many already have. We'll be talking about this more at the beginning of next week, but current levels paint a disappointingly SIDEWAYS picture for bond markets. That's frustrating when we wear our market watching, analysis hats, but jim-dandy with the mortgage hats on because the sideways is occurring near the best levels of the year. Without yet knowing what will greet us in terms of market levels on Monday morning, for now, it looks like the discussion might center on what it could take to break out of this sideways rut, both on the upside and downside and what that might look like (so as to better identify opportunities or risks of either scenario).
3:40PM :
Treasury Takes Last-Ditch Measure to Stay Solvent
(Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Friday it would take the last step at its disposal to continue borrowing money in capital markets as Congress battles over raising the country's debt ceiling.
The previously announced decision to stop investments into the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a pool of money set aside as a contingency for possible instability in currency markets, will give the Treasury an additional $23 billion of wiggle room in spending.
"Congress must enact a timely increase of the debt ceiling," the Treasury said in a statement.
(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
1:51PM :
ALERT:
Reprices For The Better As MBS Hit Highs of the Day
Despite warnings from Moody's and S&P regarding a US Credit Rating Downgrade if the debt ceiling isn't raised, Treasuries and MBS have been able to gain enough this afternoon to coax reprices for the better out of a few lenders. More could follow if current MBS levels are maintained or improved upon. Those levels are actually the best of the day with Fannie 4.0's up 6/32nds now to 100-29. 10yr notes had just touched their lowest yields of the day before breaking just slightly lower to 2.915, below a key long term trendline.
12:46PM :
Stress Test Results Garner Tepid Market Response
Boring... And somewhat frustrating is how we'd characterize the market's response to the European bank stress tests. Maybe this is because we'd hoped to get a bit more guidance with respect to the previous trading of the day, but rather than help prices or yields break higher or lower than pre-existing ranges, the stress-test reaction has simply injected a bit of volume in favor of heading back to the most central and equivocal parts of those ranges. To wit, 10yr yields could have broken below 2.92 on a favorable reaction, but instead bounced higher. However that bounce higher has already met with support from the 2.95 technical level that has mostly governed the range all week. That's about as equivocal of a response as we could have imagined. Can it really be that after this entire week of auctions, Bernanke testimony, Euro headlines, Stress Tests, and Econ Data that 10yr benchmarks are inching toward the door, bouncing on support at the exact same levels as 8am on Monday morning? Well, don't answer that... Because that's indeed what's happening. It's just boring, and lacking in a certain informative quality. Heck! With Fannie 4.0's up 3 ticks on the day at 100-26, sideways is fine with us in terms the MBS world, but we do wish the market would have done a better job of making up it's mind this week. Seems a bit anticlimactic this Friday.
12:07PM :
European Banks need 2.5 bln Euros as 8 Fail Stress Tests
Reuters) - Eight European banks are not strong enough to withstand a prolonged recession and need to raise 2.5 billion euros in capital, an industry health check aimed at reviving investor confidence showed on Friday.
The "stress test" of 90 banks in 21 countries showed five banks in Spain, two in Greece and one in Austria failed the test. The European Banking Authority (EBA), the regulator running the test, said full details on the banks that failed will be released later.
Between five and 15 smaller lenders had been expected to fail the test. All big banks passed, as expected. The International Monetary Fund has warned Europe it is taking too long to rebuild its banking system and the threat of the Greek debt crisis spreading to bigger countries such as Spain and Italy has further rattled investors.
(Reporting by Huw Jones, editing by Mike Peacock)
11:23AM :
New MBS Commentary Post
11:03AM :
US House Democrats Seek Large Deficit Plan
(Reuters) - U.S. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said on Friday she hopes talks between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders on raising the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt limit will result in a a large deficit reduction plan.
"We support our president for the grand bargain," Pelosi said at a news conference. "We hope that can still happen."
She said Democrats would not support cuts to the Medicare health plan and Social Security retirement benefits to reduce deficits but would consider changes to strengthen those programs.
(Reporting by Donna Smith; Editing by Bill Trott)
11:01AM :
Struggles Improve Slightly. Bonds Now Battling Longer Term Resistance
We'll focus on 10yr notes for a moment in order to benchmark the broader bond market. Earlier, 10's had been battling very short term resistance. After jumping to the highest yields of the week this morning, they knocked on the door to get back into yesterday's yields and were firmly denied for a short time. The logical thing finally happened on the Consumer Sentiment data and 10's finally broke that resistance. But after the last leg of mini-rallying, 10's find themselves bouncing on some LONG term resistance at a trendline that goes back to 2007/2008. In terms of history repeating itself, 10's bounce on this same trendline at the same point in the historical chart that lines up with current trading. If this isn't making sense, just think of "fractals." As history has repeated itself , sections of current trading and past trading could be snipped out of charts and if laid next to or on top of each other would look remarkably similar. Long story short, the big bounce in 2008 that matches up with the big bounce today is on the same trendline. Hope that makes sense. Ask for clarification if it doesn't and we'll dig into it in more detail. Moving on though... the implication is that we have some ongoing challenges this morning. We got through some previous resistance, but the market is telling us it won't be easy to rally down past 2.92 without some more guidance. Maybe that will come from Euro stress test results, or maybe from unscheduled headlines. Unless it happens, 4.0's are probably not heading much higher than 100-29, meaning that pricing isn't going to be improving much, if at all on first rate sheets. We'd need to break 100-29 to see reprices for the better become more than just an outside possibility.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
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Matthew Graham : "market exhaustion that's been getting more and more press does indeed seem more and more palpable"
Matthew Graham : "then I looked at volume, it's not that impressive. really underwhelming actually if you consider 4 economic reports and the stress tests, etc."
Matthew Graham : "yeah, really weird day of market movements."
Andrew Benson : "no kidding. like where it is now tho."
John Rodgers : "10 year was all over the place today."
Brent Borcherding : "Pinnacle better."
Victor Burek : "plaza better"
Ira Selwin : "FAMC price change"
Brent Borcherding : "Wells Beter"
Victor Burek : "nexbank better"
Matthew Graham : ""triangle" is sometimes referenced because such narrowing ranges must inevitably be broken. The implication is that those two lines forming the triangle represent "competing trends," and the one that doesn't get broken is "the winner," thus serving as an informative technical trip wire that can let us know when the trend shifts again"
Christopher Stevens : "so we are consolidating here in the 4 and waiting for further news to move it in one direction or the other...yet again"
Matthew Graham : "9am low s were around 100-19 and highs just after 10am near 100-29. Note how highs and lows since then have been nearer and nearer each other"
Matthew Graham : "if anyone needs the refresher, "triangle" refers to the two lines (not three) that rest along the highs and lows of an increasingly narrow trading range. "
Matthew Graham : "9am-present = triangle in MBS"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS -- The EBA said that on the basis of the results, it has issued its first formal recommendation stating that national watchdogs should require banks with capital below 5 percent to "promptly remedy their capital shortfall" though this won't be enough to "address all potential vulnerabilities at this point". "
Matthew Graham : "If spain was my kid, they'd be in time out right now for talking back"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - SPAIN'S CAM FAILS STRESS TEST "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- SPAIN'S UNNIM FAILS STRESS TEST "
Matthew Graham : "wait... more spain failures coming across"
Matthew Graham : "that's just what we want to see... Officials saying most of your country's banks failed stress tests and need to raise capital, followed by your fast response of "No we don't!""
Victor Burek : "so they failed due to lack of capital and they say no bank needs to raise capital?"
Matthew Graham : "Congratulations Spain. You also win the stubborn mule award"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - BANK OF SPAIN SAYS NO SPANISH BANK NEEDS TO RAISE CAPITAL AFTER STRESS TEST RESULTS "
Matthew Graham : "Congratulations Spain... You've officially been named the successor to Greece for the Eurodrama championship"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EBA SAYS 5 SPANISH BANKS, 2 GREEK, 1 AUSTRIAN BANK FAILED TEST "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EBA SAYS 16 OF 90 BANKS HAD CORE CAPITAL OF 5 TO 6 PERCENT AND WILL HAVE TO TAKE ACTION TO IMPROVE CAPITAL BUFFERS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EBA SAYS FAILED BANKS NEED TO RAISE 2.5 BLN EUROS IN CAPITAL "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- 8 0F 90 EUROPEAN BANKS FAIL STRESS TEST, EUROPEAN BANKING AUTHORITY SAYS "
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) - The four French banks that were subjected to a Europe-wide "stress test" easily passed with an aggregate core Tier 1 ratio of 7.5 percent, well above the 5 percent threshold, the Bank of France said on Friday."
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - SPAIN'S BANCO PASTOR FAILS STRESS TEST "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- SPAIN'S BFA (BANKIA PARENT COMPANY) PASSES STRESS TEST "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - BANK OF ITALY SAYS ALL 5 ITALIAN BANKS TAKING PART IN STRESS TESTS PASSED BY LARGE MARGIN "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- TREASURY OFFICIAL SAYS CONTINUES TO PLAN FOR QUARTERLY REFUNDING AUG. 3 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. TREASURY OFFICIAL SAYS AT THIS POINT NOT PLANNING TO CHANGE AUCTION SCHEDULE "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS IF LAWMAKERS SHOW HIM A SERIOUS PLAN, HE'S "READY TO MOVE" "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS IMPORTANT TO SOLVE UNDERLYING PROBLEM OF DEFICITS IN ADDITION TO RAISING THE DEBT CEILING "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - OBAMA SAYS IF DEBT CEILING NOT RAISED THAT COULD LEAD TO EFFECTIVE TAX INCREASE FOR ALL AMERICANS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- OBAMA SAYS IF US DOES NOT RAISE DEBT CEILING, INTEREST RATES COULD RISE FOR EVERYONE AROUND COUNTRY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- OBAMA SAYS US SHOULD NOT EVEN BE THIS CLOSE TO DEADLINE ON RAISING DEBT CEILING, ENCOURAGED THAT ALL SIDES WANT IT ADDRESSED "