MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
Open MBSonMND Dashboard | ||||||||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
10:13AM :
ECON: Wholesale Inventories up in July
(Reuters) -
U.S. wholesale inventories rose to a record high in July partly due to higher stocks of unsold computer equipment, machinery and apparel, a government report said on Friday.
Total wholesale inventories rose 0.8 percent to $462.4 billion, the Commerce department said, in line with analysts' forecasts and following a 0.6 percent rise in June.
Wholesale inventories in July were supported by a 3.7 percent rise in computer equipment and a 1.3 percent increase in machinery. Apparel stocks rose 2.9 percent.
Sales at wholesalers were unchanged at $396 billion after reaching an all-time high in June.
(Reporting by Rachelle Younglai; Editing by James Dalgleish)
U.S. wholesale inventories rose to a record high in July partly due to higher stocks of unsold computer equipment, machinery and apparel, a government report said on Friday.
Total wholesale inventories rose 0.8 percent to $462.4 billion, the Commerce department said, in line with analysts' forecasts and following a 0.6 percent rise in June.
Wholesale inventories in July were supported by a 3.7 percent rise in computer equipment and a 1.3 percent increase in machinery. Apparel stocks rose 2.9 percent.
Sales at wholesalers were unchanged at $396 billion after reaching an all-time high in June.
(Reporting by Rachelle Younglai; Editing by James Dalgleish)
10:10AM :
ECB's Stark to Retire Early After Bond-Buying Disagreements
(Reuters) - The top German official at the European Central Bank is to quit early in disagreement with the bank's policy of buying euro zone government bonds to combat the currency bloc's debt crisis.
After Reuters exclusively reported that Executive Board Member Juergen Stark, the central bank's chief economist, would quit, the ECB confirmed that he would leave before the end of the year once a replacement had been found. Stark's departure, almost three years before his term is due to expire in May 2014, would deepen a gulf between the ECB, which manages the currency of the 17-nation European currency area, and German guardians of central bank orthodoxy. Former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who had been the frontrunner to succeed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet when he retires at the end of next month, resigned and withdrew from the race in February in protest at the same policy.
"Stark held the same view of the bond-buying as Axel Weber and the current Bundesbank president," said Manfred Neumann, emeritus economics professor at Bonn University and former thesis adviser to Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann. "It is a position that all the Germans have. This is a sign of huge problems within the central bank. The Germans clearly have a problem with the direction of the ECB."
Trichet made an emotional defence of the bank's performance against German criticism at a news conference on Thursday, angrily telling a German questioner that the ECB's record of inflation fighting in Germany over the last 12 years had been better than the Bundesbank's.
Stark was one of four members of the ECB's policymaking governing council who sources said voted against last month's controversial decision to revive the dormant bond-buying programme and start buying Italian and Spanish debt after the two countries' borrowing costs ballooned amid market fever.
After Reuters exclusively reported that Executive Board Member Juergen Stark, the central bank's chief economist, would quit, the ECB confirmed that he would leave before the end of the year once a replacement had been found. Stark's departure, almost three years before his term is due to expire in May 2014, would deepen a gulf between the ECB, which manages the currency of the 17-nation European currency area, and German guardians of central bank orthodoxy. Former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who had been the frontrunner to succeed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet when he retires at the end of next month, resigned and withdrew from the race in February in protest at the same policy.
"Stark held the same view of the bond-buying as Axel Weber and the current Bundesbank president," said Manfred Neumann, emeritus economics professor at Bonn University and former thesis adviser to Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann. "It is a position that all the Germans have. This is a sign of huge problems within the central bank. The Germans clearly have a problem with the direction of the ECB."
Trichet made an emotional defence of the bank's performance against German criticism at a news conference on Thursday, angrily telling a German questioner that the ECB's record of inflation fighting in Germany over the last 12 years had been better than the Bundesbank's.
Stark was one of four members of the ECB's policymaking governing council who sources said voted against last month's controversial decision to revive the dormant bond-buying programme and start buying Italian and Spanish debt after the two countries' borrowing costs ballooned amid market fever.
9:35AM :
ALERT:
Weaker Overnight, MBS and TSYs Recovering on Stock Weakness
Early bond market action was on the weaker side and mostly tracking stock futures, perhaps waiting to see how equities would trade last night's Obama speech. 10's shot up all the way from 1.975 at 5pm last night to 2.018 a few times this morning, each time seemingly waiting for stocks to make a move over yesterday's closing levels. After failing for the 2nd time, stocks sold off fairly quickly and bond markets rallied back past yesterday's 5pm marks. 3.5's are actually 10 ticks better at the moment at 101-30. 4.0's are 6 ticks better at 104-19. 10yr notes are 2.6 bps lower at 1.95, after having just rallied abruptly and continuing on in high volume and fast trading. We'll have to keep an eye on the "ceiling" levels for MBS discussed in the following link. Today is the first day of MBS settlement and next week's trading of newer MBS coupons could be our chance to break those ceilings.
8:35AM :
Geithner Says No Act of Congress Needed For More Refinancings
(Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Friday that the Obama administration's new jobs bill would have a substantial positive impact on the U.S. economy if passed by Congress.
"If Congress were to act on this bill, it would have a substantial powerful effect on strengthening the economy that has slowed quite a bit and that would translate into jobs for hundreds of thousands of American workers at a time when we need that," Geithner told National Public Radio in a telephone interview.
He also said that the administration did not need an act of Congress for new initiatives to boost refinancings of federally supported home mortgages. He said more details on how refinancings would work would be announced in the next three weeks.
(Reporting by David Lawder and Rachelle Younglai, editing by W Simon )
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
Victor Burek : "flagstar is .5 better"
Jason York : "wells is worse from yesterday close"
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) CARSTEN BRZESKI, ING
"So it looks like the last hawk is leaving the sinking ship. The direct impact will be very small and shouldn't change policy. But the loss of Stark, also the ECB's chief economist, could lead to policy changes down the line. Assuming this is true I would assume that they also discussed a rate cut yesterday. Clearly he's unhappy with the bond purchases, but we can't rule out it being a private matter either. It would have to be a severe private issue. Otherwis"
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) MANFRED NEUMANN, EMERITUS ECONOMICS PROFESSOR AT BONN UNIVERSITY, FORMER THESIS ADVISOR TO BUNDESBANK PRESIDENT JENS WEIDMANN
"This is remarkable. Stark held the same view of the bond-buying as Axel Weber and the current Bundesbank president. It is a position that all the Germans have. This is a sign of huge problems within the central bank. The Germans clearly have a problem with the direction of the ECB." "
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) MARCO BARGEL, POSTBANK
"Evidently there are more and more ECB council members against the controversial purchase of bonds. There is certainly a bit of frustration involved. Stark's resignation could be seen as a weakening of hardline monetary policy camp. It can only be hoped that his successor would be someone with similar views." "
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) LOTHAR HESSLER, HSBC TRINKAUS
"It’s a sign that ECB policymaking is controversial even within the board. Clearly the German representatives have a position that differs from other central bankers. That makes ECB policymaking more difficult.” "
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters) MATTHIAS GLOYSTEIN, BREMER LANDESBANK
"Stark was seen as a bearer of capacity and skills. The question is now, who is to follow? This is crucial, if no one else is positioning themselves as a contrarian, above all during a phase where the ECB is discussing the bond buying programme. At the moment the market will interpret this demission as weakening the ECB." "
Brent Borcherding : "I agree, David. I think rates would have been lower without the Fed is my point. Rates here or .25-.5% lower and this things bottoms and starts to right itself. Seems crazy, I know, but cash investors are already feasting and with that cheap a money, you'd see a lot more people educating themselves on buy and hold real estate."
David Z. : "Brent i agree we need to let it sort out, but not that low rates have not helped. How much worse would things be in housing and the economy had we not had these lor rates"
Jason York : "just in time for rates sheets to start rolling out"
Victor Burek : "looks like stocks tanking at open...money flowing to bonds"
Chip Harris : "GM all. Just got here. What just happened to the 10 year?"
Brent Borcherding : "Lastly, I know people chatter that lower rates haven't benefitted the economy, but I also may argue that we haven't been able to search out the real market natural bottom in rates...any time we've gotten near this level, & cheap money does help growth, the Fed has "helped" and rates have gone up...maybe it's time to just let this sort itself out."
Brent Borcherding : "I also think that so much is done by computers that as the Fed sells shorter duration debt, the yields on those will rise, naturally forcing yields on longer duration higher, too."
Victor Burek : "so less inflationary"
Victor Burek : "me too...the one thing that might make this different is they wont print new money..sell existing asset for new asset"
Brent Borcherding : "I'm come only from a place of fear on this, VB... I'm fearful that any time the Fed interferes in free markets they drive real money out of the market."
Victor Burek : "brent...what do you think about twist? good or bad for us?"
Brent Borcherding : "Soooooo, let's talk about the impending Operation Twist."