MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST |
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
11:27AM : Rallying Back to Highs of the Day as Stocks go Red
Perhaps
it was the fact that the internals of the ISM report were weaker than
the headline and the street took some time to realize it. Perhaps it was
the fact that the ISM report being stronger than expected caused the
street to trim expectations of QE3. Or perhaps this is merely a
technical correction from last night's and this morning's lows (recent
lows in S&P's fell along that same line). But whatever the case,
stocks are down to 1218 in the S&P and have been in the red for
about half an hour (currently hovering around unchanged. Bonds like it.
10's are down 4.7 bps on the day now at 2.1864 and Fannie MBS are
improved. 4's are up 7 ticks at 103-30 and 3.5's are up 10 ticks at
100-31+. This morning's action reiterates a common theme though, and
that is that the bond market is paying attention to stocks. If Stocks
manage to stage an afternoon rally, we could lose recent gains. But
until that happens, risks of reprices for the worse are gone and it
would only be a matter of time (or further gains) before reprices for
the better become the more likely event.
10:19AM :
ECON: Construction Spending Falls 1.3 Percent
(Reuters) - U.S. construction spending fell unexpectedly in July as public construction outlays dropped to their lowest level since December 2006 and private spending also sagged, a government report showed on Thursday.
Construction spending fell 1.3 percent to an annual rate of $789.5 billion, the largest drop since January, the Commerce Department said. However, June's construction spending was revised to a 1.6 percent increase rather than the previously reported 0.2 increase.
Economists had expected construction spending to rise 0.2 percent in July.
10:18AM :
ECON: ISM Ticks Down Slightly, but Beats Expectations
(Reuters) - The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector ticked down to a crawl in August but fared better than economists had forecast, an industry report showed on Thursday.
The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity edged down to 50.6 from 50.9 the month before. The reading topped expectations of 48.5, which would have signaled a contraction, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. Analysts had been expecting the data to show the first contraction since July 2009, just after the recession officially ended.
New orders rose to 49.6 from 49.2, while the employment gauge dipped to 51.8 from 53.5.
(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
10:10AM :
ALERT:
Potential Reprices for the Worse on Better-Than-Expected ISM
Markets had been expected a sub-50 reading on the just-released ISM report and they got 50.6. The simple fact that this indicates expansion rather than contraction is causing a knee-jerk reaction in markets (or maybe it's the simple fact that it's still horribly weak and making stocks hope for QE3?). MBS are down to yesterday's lows with 4.0's at 103-16. 3.5's are down to 100-12. Reprices for the worse are quite possible from any lenders who were already out with rates.
9:03AM :
ALERT:
Bond Markets Mildly Improved. Waiting on ISM
The overnight session was mostly kind to Treasuries and to a smaller extent, MBS. The ECB is still buying Italian and Spanish bonds, but the dealer community has to do the heavy lifting at auctions as evidenced by Spain's 1.8 bid-to-cover last night vs 2.54 average. Volume was pretty light and excitement pretty low to kick off the new month. Even after our own 830am econ data, 10's and MBS are flat at opening levels: 3 ticks better in Fannie 3.5's and 4.0's at 100-24 and 103-25 respectively. 10yr notes are about 2bps lower at 2.213. Rate sheets out before the 10am ISM Manufacturing report should be similar to yesterday's latest offerings depending on the specific lender's late day reprice-for-the-worse aggressiveness. Otherwise the moderately anticipated ISM data (expected to turn negative for the first time in a long time) could delay rate sheets, but also removes some uncertainty from the day's trading, perhaps allowing lenders to price more in line with any improvements or declines in MBS.
8:36AM :
ECON: Non-Farm Productivity Falls 0.7 pct in Q2
(Reuters) - U.S. nonfarm productivity was weaker than previously thought in the second quarter and wage growth was a bit stronger, but not enough to ignite inflation pressures.
Productivity fell at a 0.7 percent annual rate, the Labor Department said on Thursday, the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 2008. That was a downward revision to its previous estimate of a 0.3 percent fall.
Productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, fell at a 0.6 percent rate in the first three months of 2011.
Economists had expected the revision to show productivity dropped at a 0.5 percent rate. The weak productivity is in a line with the anemic economic growth pace during the second quarter.
The economy expanded at a 1.0 percent annual rate after a measly 0.4 percent pace in the January-March period.
A slowdown in productivity usually suggests that businesses have to add new workers to meet production, but against the backdrop of an economy growing at a near stall-speed, it implies businesses might have to cut costs to protect profits.
Productivity grew rapidly as the economy emerged from the 2007-09 recession, peaking at an 8.0 percent growth rate in the second quarter of 2009. The gains were driven by companies' cutting costs, particularly labor.
The productivity report showed unit labor costs grew at a more sturdy 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter rather than 2.2 percent. The revised pace is still slower than the 6.2 percent rate in the first quarter, indicating wage pressures remain too well contained to stoke a broader rise in inflation.
Economists had expected the growth in second-quarter unit labor costs to be revised up to a 2.4 percent rate.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
8:35AM :
ECON: Jobless Claims Fell 12k Last Week
(Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell as expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, showing little sign of a pick-up in layoffs in the wake of a slump in business and consumer confidence.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 409,000, the Labor Department said, still pointing to a jobs market struggling to find strength, but well short of a recession signal.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 410,000 last week. The prior week's claims were revised up to 421,000 from the previously reported 417,000.
A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing last week's claims report. The Verizon strike helped to push up claims in the last two weeks.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 1,750 to 410,250 last week.
The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 18,000 to 3.74 million in the week ended Aug. 20.
The number of Americans on emergency unemployment benefits increased 31,261 to 3.12 million in the week ended Aug. 13, the latest week for which data is available.
A total of 7.34 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, up 45,531 from the prior week. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard
.
Adam Quinones : "It’s Time to Bring Our Mortgages Home: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1108/S00346/its-time-to-bring-our-mortgages-home.htm"
Brett Boyke : "equities reaalize an ISM beat not good for QE"
John Roberts - TN Consumer : "short lived win though(aka knee jerk) - look at the S&P spike at the anouncement and now look like it's falling off a cliff - inverse of 4.0"
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters)SEAN INCREMONA, ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD, NEW YORK: "The headline was resilient and we are pleased to see that but if you look at the breakdown it is much less positive. New orders remain below 50 so that is not a good forward-looking indicator. Production was cut pretty sharply and employment continued to moderate. It does look like the only point of support here was inventories, which may turn out to be temporary.""
Matthew Graham : "(Reuters)COMMENTS:
TOM PORCELLI, U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK
"The real risk from a market perspective was if it stayed above breakeven and that's what we got. But the real result is mixed. The key underlying detail was a little bit on the weak side, highlighting weakness in new orders.""
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2009 "
Andrew Horowitz : "again perspective.. a slightly stronger number and we sell off to a whopping 2.23 yield in the 10 year"
Victor Burek : "maybe the better than expected ism data lessens talk about qe3"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US JULY STATE AND LOCAL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING $246.9 BLN, LOWEST SINCE NOV 2006; FEDERAL SPENDING $28.1 BLN, LOWEST SINCE JAN 2010"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US JULY PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION SPENDING $275.0 BLN, LOWEST SINCE $270.2 BLN IN DEC 2006"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JULY PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING -0.9 PCT, PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION SPENDING -2.1 PCT"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US JULY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING -1.3 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.2 PCT) TO $789.5 BLN VS JUNE +1.6 PCT (PREV +0.2 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "but this is still a weak reading"
Matthew Graham : "some symbolic value that it's "over 50""
Victor Burek : "construction spending down big"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING PRICES PAID INDEX 55.5 IN AUGUST (CONSENSUS 55.0) VS 59.0 IN JULY "
Oliver S. Orlicki : "better than expected"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS INDEX 49.6 IN AUGUST VS 49.2 IN JULY "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ISM REPORT ON U.S. MANUFACTURING SHOWS PMI AT 50.6 IN AUGUST (CONSENSUS 48.5) VS 50.9 IN JULY "
Chris Kopec : "Just another reason why the appraisal process needs to be completely reformed. Customers in today's market should be able to accurately determine their home's value independently."
Jason York : "band news this morning, Va customer was doing a streamline, and needed a 2055, but it came in about $30k low, and he was coming home on 9/22 Haiti to surprise his kids and hopefully close, I hate this part about VA Streamlines now, "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. Q2 NON-FARM UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED TO +3.3 PCT (CONS +2.4 PCT), PREV +2.2 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. Q2 NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO -0.7 PCT, STEEPEST DROP SINCE Q4 2008 (CONS -0.5 PCT), PREV -0.3 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.0 PCT AUG 20 WEEK FROM 3.0 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.9 PCT) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.735 MLN (CON. 3.670 MLN) AUG 20 WEEK FROM 3.753 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.641 MLN) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 410,250 AUG 27 WEEK FROM 408,500 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 407,500) "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 409,000 AUG 27 WEEK (CONSENSUS 410,000) FROM 421,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 417,000)"
Gaius Rossini : "the topic is "Rebalancing the Housing Market""
Gaius Rossini : "elizabeth duke is speaking at noon in case anyone cares. she's a voting governor at the fed and is in charge of the task force to investigate the housing refinance"