Here's this morning's alert from MBS Live:
Overnight Treasury Rally Abates, Resulting in Flat Open for MBS 8:20AM
Things are still settling in to their respective grooves this morning, but MBS and Treasuries are generally flat compared to yesterday afternoon's trading levels. This after a somewhat interesting night that saw a good mix of high and low volume. 10yr yields were in the high 1.8's during the lower volume Asian hours as a Japan was out and "risk-off" was the theme of the session. Stocks fell sharply as well.
Those low yields led to massive amounts of selling as the EU session increased volume, but a weak German Bund auction helped domestic 10yr yields cap the selling in the 1.93/1.94 area.
There's plenty of domestic economic data coming up this morning:
*830am Durable Goods - new orders are expected to have fallen from -0.6% previously to -1.0%. Last month's strong +1.8% that excluded transportation is seen falling to 0.0% this month, while the numbers exclusing defense and aircraft are seen falling from +2.9% last month to -0.6%
*830am Personal Income/Outlays - Income seen rising to 0.3% from 0.1% last month. Consumption (outlays) seen falling to 0.4% from 0.6% last month. PCE price index seen rising 0.1% month-over-month
*830am Jobless Claims - After last week's 388k, Jobless Claims are expected to have risen slightly to 390k with continued claims at 3.605 mln vs 3.608 mln.
*955am Consumer Sentiment (Final) - Seen roughly unchanged at 64.5 versus last month's 64.2.
* 1pm 7yr Treasury Note Auction
With MBS at 101-31 at the moment, 101-26 seems like an excellent lower level at which to set your automatic alerts today (adjust up slightly if you have a traditionally fast-acting lender in mind). Also, remember that this is essentially the last day of the week so it might not take as much weakness or volatility to prompt a pullback in pricing.
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and a shot of the action so far:
Stocks are currently down appreciably from yesterday's close with the S&P off about 10 points already (futures at 1172.75)