European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's press conference (which follows the scheduled ECB policy announcement) could set the tone for bond markets this morning.  And that tone could spill over to Treasuries more than normal due to a lack of domestic data.  Spillover aside, US bond markets would be hard pressed to make a major move into stronger territory with tomorrow's NFP data looming.

As the chart shows, European bond yields (Germany is the benchmark) have been calmer relative to Treasuries this year, and arguably led the way for the late February shift.  In the past week, European yields began to rise--perhaps due to anxiety over today's ECB message.  As of this morning, German Bund yields are right on the edge of an important technical level at 0.70%.  Simply put, if they can hold that line, it could help US Treasuries maintain their recent trend.

The afternoon brings risks surrounding the roll-out of Trump's tariff plan.  Yesterday, the White House said Trump would be officially signing the tariff proclamation this afternoon, but now says it may be pushed to tomorrow.  While this process drags on, Trump's stance has softened somewhat.  The most notable softening came in the form of exceptions being made for Canada and Mexico.  The latest word is that the two countries will start out with 30-day exemptions from the tariffs, but that those exemptions could be extended after NAFTA negotiations.