Bond markets continue making a case for re-entry into the core of the range that has been intact since December 2016.  The December Fed meeting helped set the highs of that range, and the March Fed meeting has helped to reinforce them (roughly 2.62%).   The other side of the range has come in at 2.30% on average, and definitely lacks the sort of clearly-delineated cause and effect enjoyed by the ceiling levels.

In other words, when we approach the ceiling and bounce, we can clearly see the reasons behind those movements.  In contrast, when yields have approached 2.30% and bounced, we don't have nearly as many convenient scapegoats.  Only the most recent bounce fits that bill (where Fed comments about March rate hike potential pulled rates quickly higher at the end of February.

Given that yields are already back to the mid-point of the 4-month range, we're left to wonder what sort of roadblock will emerge on this trip toward lower yields.  

Today begins with bond markets in weaker territory after losing some ground overnight, but we can keep an eye on several technical levels to track the health of the short-term rally.  The first line of defense is 2.48% in 10yr yields, but the more serious technical ceiling would be 2.515% this week.  Unless we break above 2.515 today, any weakness will be more about consolidating the recent gains.