The order of the day and week for domestic bond markets has been and will continue to be the break out from the recently friendly trend toward lower rates that began in mid-March. We've been eyeing this breakout since last Friday when a combination of French election polls and Trumps tax plan pre-announcement caused an intraday break above the yellow lines in the following chart.
Deceptively, Friday saw yields move back inside the trend by the close, giving the impression that the breakout was not a done deal. After the election results came out, it became clear that we'd be looking at another challenge of the trend. Monday and Tuesday add up to a definitive break as well as a definitive shift in short-term momentum.
Today's big to-do is the tax reform announcement that Trump referenced last Friday as the "biggest tax cut in history." Considering that tax reform is one of the primary reasons for the post-election stock rally and bond sell-off, it's no surprise that markets are incredibly interested to get this info. Quite a few pundits have already pointed out that the administration is not expected to go into great detail on the plan, and instead offer bullet points on key provisions.
There is no set time for the announcement, but it's more likely to be later in the day vs earlier. As such, we don't know how much of a market mover it might be for today's trading session. Either way, it is the focal point for bonds and the broader decision to enter (or not reenter) the narrow, flat trading range that dominated the past 5 months (before the breakout in mid-April).