For all the sturm and drang seen in the middle of the week, trading levels somehow managed to hit today's 3pm close almost perfectly in line with Monday morning's levels. As expected, Monday and Friday were relative non-events, given that neither contained any interesting data or events on the calendar.
This week's drama was primarily reserved for Tuesday and Wednesday. The biggest event of the week for bonds was arguably the release of Yellen's prepared congressional testimony at 10am on Tuesday morning. Markets were looking for some read--ANY read--on the Fed's most timely thoughts on rate hikes. When the first few newswires specifically mentioned the need to hike sooner vs later, it was off to the races for bond yields.
Wednesday saw the weakness continue. At issue were two pieces of strong economic data in the form of Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index. By their powers combined, market participants quickly increased the odds of a March rate hike from the Fed. 10yr yields and MBS followed the weakness at first, but the move ended up fizzling out in short order. It looked like the bond market was ready to put it's foot down after 5 straight days of weakness.
While Wednesday ended with rates in weaker territory than Tuesday, an intraday push back had already begun. The positive momentum remained through today, leaving us very much in the middle of the post-election consolidation range--about as far away from momentum signals as we can be.
Note: bond markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day.