Today's main event was the release of the Trump administration's new tax plan. Markets didn't go overboard in their expectations of major revelations and excruciating details. That turned out to be an ideal approach as there weren't any major revelations or excruciating details to be had! Several of the key bullet points (15% corporate tax and reduction in number of brackets, for instance) had already been foreshadowed by previous administration comments.
Still, bond markets were holding out for something a bit more terrifying. When the announcement turned out to be mostly anticlimactic, bonds were quickly able to retrace some of their weaker steps from the early afternoon.
It's worth noting that the early afternoon weakness was a clear consequence of European bond markets closing. Before that, 10yr yields had recovered to 2.313 from highs of 2.35--not an insignificant move. Credit a German bond market rally for the resilience. Today was the first day that European bond markets pushed back on the recent selling trend. US bond market weakness arrived precisely when EU bond markets closed.
The volume totals from the AM hours (when EU and US sessions overlap) were just as high (in some cases higher) as the post-tax-plan hours. The takeaway is that we're still dealing with multiple market movers competing for bonds' attention. I'd like to see just a bit more strength before getting too excited about holding below the big-picture pivot point around 2.31%.