Wed, Mar 22 2017, 5:30 PM
Bond markets began the day in slightly stronger territory and quickly embarked on the same sort of rally that characterized yesterday morning. Today'...
Wed, Mar 22 2017, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates were lower for the 7th day in a row today, further extending their push into the lowest levels of the month. At first, that positive mo...
Tue, Mar 21 2017, 9:13 AM
Bond markets continue making a case for re-entry into the core of the range that has been intact since December 2016. The December Fed meeting helped...
Tue, Mar 21 2017, 5:21 PM
If there was one catalyst for the overall surge toward higher stocks and rates at the end of 2016, it was the expectation that the new administration'...
Tue, Mar 21 2017, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today as political uncertainty sparked the biggest day of stock market losses since the election. In general, short ter...
Mon, Mar 20 2017, 9:15 AM
This week will be fairly light in terms of scheduled economic data . The first relatively significant report won't be out until Wednesday (Existing ...
Mon, Mar 20 2017, 7:14 PM
Much like Friday, today was uneventful and moderately positive for bond markets. At some point, we have to consider the combined effects of these sor...
Mon, Mar 20 2017, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates were steady-to-slightly lower today, keeping them in line with the lowest levels in 2 weeks and very close to the lowest levels of the ...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 8:53 AM
Happy St. Patrick's Day.
Now that you're thinking about a country in Europe, let's talk about European bonds for a moment. US and European bonds...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 5:28 PM
If wearing some green is all it takes, bonds would have escaped today pinch-free. Treasuries and MBS began the day with just a token amount of green ...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 2:56 PM
Mortgage rates managed to maintain the improvement seen since Wednesday's Fed announcement. While the Fed did indeed hike its policy rate, the hike wa...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 8:29 AM
After the overnight session led bonds to open in modestly weaker territory, we're left with the sense that further gains aren't necessarily a given. ...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 5:47 PM
The big takeaway from yesterday's Fed reaction was that the rally was finite--not motivated by a new development, but rather by a correction to an o...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 1:12 PM
Mortgage rates are right in line with yesterday's levels, and yesterday saw rates fall at the fastest pace of the year, ultimately reaching the lowest...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 8:27 AM
If you've caught essentially any post in the last few weeks, there's nothing left to say about today. If, however, this is your first time reading ...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 6:42 PM
Yesterday's recap said that bonds were dreaming about the Fed's dot plot (the economic projections released with today's Fed announcement). In spite ...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates fell at their fastest pace of the year following today's rate hike announcement from the Fed. If you're wondering why mortgage rates fe...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 2:05 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December February indicates ...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 8:32 AM
The entire week is clearly focused on Wednesday afternoon's Fed events (chiefly, the Fed' economic projections, which will give us an idea of how th...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 5:51 PM
We know the Fed will hike tomorrow and we know the "dots" (a reference to the dot-plot the Fed uses to convey it's rate hike expectations) will be the...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, on average, despite moderate improvements in underlying bond markets. Typically, bond market improvement results in ...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 9:17 AM
In 2011-2012, the notion that the Fed would " never " be able to extricate itself from an endless cycle of quantitative easing was not entirely uncomm...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 5:37 PM
Bonds got back to their weaker ways after a very brief, shallow correction last Friday. We had increasingly expected that "green day," and were und...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates rose for the 10th time in the past 11 days today, bringing them very close to highest levels in 3 years. You'd have to go back to April...
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 8:15 AM
Bonds are right on the edge of the relative abyss. If 10yr yields break much higher today, we'll be operating in territory not seen since early 2014....
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 4:43 PM
ADP provided a cruel gift on Wednesday. It isn't the most trusted advance indicator of the infinitely more important NFP data, but when it beats th...
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, despite a key report from the Labor Department showing stronger-than-expected job creation in February. Typically, a...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 8:33 AM
After confirming a breakout from the "consolidation range" (the converging lines tracing the lower highs and higher lows over the past 3 months) yes...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 6:34 PM
The title sums it up. Bonds are having a bad time . Fed rate hike expectations started this unpleasant party last week and economic data added to t...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 5:38 PM
Mortgage rates rose again today, bringing them further into the highest levels of the year. If there's anything redeeming about the move it's that it ...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 8:18 AM
Not that we didn't already know this, but bond markets have been on the back foot ever since last week's rapid shift in Fed rate hike expectations. T...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 5:42 PM
Over the past 3 days (the white circled area in the chart below), rates have broken out of their post-election consolidation range (the outermost ye...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates spiked, big-time, today. Underlying bond markets had already moved higher in rate overnight, but the trend was taken to a new level by ...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 9:06 AM
We've been tracking several iterations of a sideways or consolidative range since the initial post-election sell-off bounced back in mid January. We...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 5:29 PM
It's not incredibly common for bonds to improve in the week leading up to an almost certain Fed hike. That said, we only have 2 recent examples in th...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately today, keeping them in line with recent highs. The run to those highs took place largely over the past week as markets ...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 8:58 AM
Last week saw economic data take a definitive back seat to Fed speeches --particularly Tuesday's comments from NY Fed President Dudley. It wasn't th...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 5:47 PM
Monday's without significant economic data or overseas geopolitical developments tend to be quite lifeless for bond markets. Today was no exception...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 5:19 PM
After moving higher for 5 days in a row, mortgage rates finally moved a bit lower today. The improvement was fairly small, however, merely undoing Fri...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 8:43 AM
As you're likely aware, rates have been in a very well-behaved consolidation range since mid-November. The trendlines connecting the "lower highs" an...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 4:34 PM
Economic data was stronger this morning with the best ISM Manufacturing "business activity" reading since 2011. Along with comments from Fed's Powell...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates rose by the smallest amount of the week today, but they rose nonetheless. That caps a streak of 5 straight days spent moving in an unfr...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 8:55 AM
In addition to ISM Non-Manufacturing, tomorrow brings multiple Fed speeches, including Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer in the early afternoon. It's exc...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 5:25 PM
You couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting a news story about the Snapchat IPO or a friend/colleague asking if you were going to buy some. While i...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher today, extending the recent losing streak to its 4th straight day. This keeps the average conventional 30yr f...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 8:21 AM
There was a lot of build-up for last night's Trump speech. I won't tell you that it didn't turn out to be a market mover, but it wasn't nearly as p...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 4:39 PM
The past 2 days have been almost exclusively about a rapid adjustment in Fed rate hike expectations (see the chart in the Day Ahead for a visual). ...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates moved sharply higher today, bringing the average top tier 30yr fixed quote back to 4.25% from 4.125% previously. That doesn't exactly m...
Tue, Feb 28 2017, 8:30 AM
Today is the last day of February. 'Month-end' is different than other days for bond markets because it serves as a deadline for money managers to ...
Tue, Feb 28 2017, 6:38 PM
Treasuries and MBS made it almost all the way through the day with very little drama. There were some ups and downs, but by 4pm, trading levels wer...
