Tue, Jun 27 2017, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates saw their biggest bounce higher in more than a week today as domestic bond markets (which dictate rates) followed a much bigger move in...
Tue, Jun 27 2017, 9:26 AM
Members of the FOMC are constantly giving speeches and making appearances at various events. The only exception would be the "blackout period" where ...
Mon, Jun 26 2017, 5:35 PM
Despite a super narrow range throughout the day, last Friday saw 10yr yields close at the 2nd best levels of the year. With that in mind, it wouldn'...
Mon, Jun 26 2017, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. Underlying financial markets continue moving in a narrow range--something...
Mon, Jun 26 2017, 9:37 AM
Whereas the previous week was generally devoid of significant economic data or market moving events, the current week is more of a contender. On the ...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 5:32 PM
We've been watching the intraday trading ranges in bond markets to keep an eye on just how flat things have been in the wake of last Wednesday's big t...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 4:59 PM
Weeks like this are the reason that some mortgage rate analysis is only done once a week. There haven't been any significant developments in financial...
Fri, Jun 23 2017, 8:59 AM
You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile." For many, i...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 4:43 PM
Yesterday's recap went into some detail about the market phenomenon that can result in intense periods of sideways momentum (and trader apathy) duri...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates have been so little-changed in recent days that yesterday's coverage wouldn't need to be changed in order to apply perfectly today. Ind...
Thu, Jun 22 2017, 8:53 AM
With the trading activity seen in the wake of last Wednesday's high-volume/high-movement day, it's clear that bond markets have been in a holding patt...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 4:50 PM
With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historica...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates have been locked in an exceptionally narrow range for most of the month of June, but especially over the past 5 days. Given that mortga...
Wed, Jun 21 2017, 9:17 AM
Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 4:54 PM
Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers g...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither here ...
Tue, Jun 20 2017, 9:08 AM
The week continues to offer little by way of scheduled economic data/events to stir the pot, thus leaving us to observe the underlying biases among tr...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 5:06 PM
Right out of the gate this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley set a rather negative tone for bond markets with several comments that essentially...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly flat again today, despite bond market weakness (lower bond prices generally mean higher rates). Between MBS (the mortgage-b...
Mon, Jun 19 2017, 9:40 AM
The past 3 trading sessions marked 3 of the 5 lowest closes for 10yr yields in 2017. Friday's strength did a nice job of pushing back against a poten...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 5:04 PM
Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place sin...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates were flat today, after weaker-than-expected construction data prompted a positive bounce for bond markets. In general, bonds (which dic...
Fri, Jun 16 2017, 9:09 AM
Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally. Conversely, they're not likely to rise e...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 4:26 PM
To be fair to the Fed, they didn't really cause most of today's weakness. Bond markets already showed their hand with respect to yesterday's Fed ev...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately today, as bond markets generally bounced back from the best levels in 8 months yesterday. Despite the bounce, rates are...
Thu, Jun 15 2017, 9:34 AM
Yesterday's rally was a potential game changer for the "great push back" of 2017 . That's not the official term for the past several months of gener...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 5:34 PM
In a weird way, today's Fed announcement came out right at 8:30am when Core CPI dropped to 1.7%, falling well short of the 1.9% median forecast (year-...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates fell convincingly today, though not all lenders adjusted rates sheets in proportion to the gains seen in bond markets (which underlie r...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 2:03 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the...
Wed, Jun 14 2017, 8:32 AM
If you follow bond market movement for long enough, one thing becomes clear above all others: the Fed is the most reliable explanation for shifts in m...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 4:55 PM
The past 3 trading sessions have largely represented a consolidation in prices and yields, just off the best levels of the year. There has certainl...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher today, for most lenders. This had more to do with yesterday's market movement than today's. Bond markets were wea...
Tue, Jun 13 2017, 8:47 AM
While we do have some economic data to get through today (Producer Prices, which are already out stronger than expected, and the afternoon's 30yr bond...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 5:16 PM
Today's bond trading was largely a story of the 3yr Treasury auction vs the 10yr Treasury auction. Both of these are used to encountering each other ...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates were either flat or slightly higher , depending on the lender today. Movement in underlying bond markets suggested a modest increase in...
Mon, Jun 12 2017, 9:10 AM
It would be miraculous to see bond markets escape this week without experiencing some sort of reaction to the plethora of data and scheduled events. ...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 5:20 PM
Yesterday's recap was titled "Surprising (or Not?) Absence of Volatility." Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... won't be fooled again.
The ...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the second straight day amid a general lack of actionable information. Some investors noted that the results of the el...
Fri, Jun 9 2017, 9:02 AM
All of our high-risk events for this week have come and gone, and bond markets aren't able to justify the stronger "lead-off" levels that marked the p...
Thu, Jun 8 2017, 4:55 PM
Perhaps it had to do with yesterday's 1st round of Senate testimony or Comey's prepared remarks giving bond markets an unfriendly bump, but bonds ende...
Thu, Jun 8 2017, 3:09 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly today after spending 2 days at the best levels in nearly 8 months. Financial markets were tuned in to several key events ...
Thu, Jun 8 2017, 9:02 AM
A few days ago, I laid out a bullish long-term case for bond markets. I could probably do something similar for a bearish case, but when it comes to ...
Wed, Jun 7 2017, 4:57 PM
Bond markets were only modestly weaker in the overnight session (unlike yesterday where a majority of the day's weakness was seen overnight), but bega...
Wed, Jun 7 2017, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold in line with 2017's lowest levels for a 2nd day, even though underlying bond markets suggested a move higher . That mea...
Wed, Jun 7 2017, 9:19 AM
One never knows what to expect on the relatively data-free day ahead of a minefield of potential market movers 24 hours later. To be clear, we're tal...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 7:05 PM
After yesterday's modest bond market weakness, we may well have assumed that traders were in their preferred positions ahead of Thursday's big-ticket ...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates unexpectedly fell to new 7-month lows today, following bond market gains in the overnight hours (Asian and European trading sessions). ...
Tue, Jun 6 2017, 9:28 AM
There are no significant data or events on the calendar today and the Fed remains in its "blackout period" (where Fed speakers abstain from commenting...
Mon, Jun 5 2017, 6:03 PM
ISM Non-Manufacturing was this morning's biggest potential market mover, but it came in very close to consensus. Moreover, its internal components ...
Mon, Jun 5 2017, 5:01 PM
Mortgage rates were modestly higher today after hitting the lowest levels since early November at the end of last week. Along with mid-April, this is ...
