Wed, May 10 2017, 6:26 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher again today, making it the 13th out of the past 16 business days without an improvement. The situation w...
Tue, May 9 2017, 9:46 AM
Let me take you back--but not necessarily "way back"--to March 2017. Geopolitical risks weren't on the radar yet (no Syria air strike, North Korea th...
Tue, May 9 2017, 6:23 PM
Let's get the caveats out of the way. Bond markets ended the day in slightly weaker territory, and the broader trend remains toward higher yields. M...
Tue, May 9 2017, 2:29 PM
Mortgage rates haven't necessarily moved higher every day recently. For instance, yesterday's rates were unchanged versus last Friday's. But the gener...
Mon, May 8 2017, 9:23 AM
The economic and event calendar is fairly light this week, especially on the first few days. The importance and pace of potential market movers incre...
Mon, May 8 2017, 6:54 PM
We've been tracking an uptrend in yields since they bottomed out in mid April. There was some hope that we would see a firmer ceiling take shape head...
Mon, May 8 2017, 6:12 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today. This is actually quite an accomplishment if you ask the average bond market participant. Mortgage rates...
Fri, May 5 2017, 8:24 AM
Today's chart is essentially the same chart we examined yesterday, but this time the only trendlines are those surrounding the most recent trend. The...
Fri, May 5 2017, 7:12 PM
Today's NFP report certainly could have been damaging for bond markets if it contained a significant revision to last month's low 98k headline. It ...
Fri, May 5 2017, 5:47 PM
Mortgage rates recovered today, moving sideways to slightly lower after losing ground over the past few days. Today's focal point was the Employment S...
Thu, May 4 2017, 9:11 AM
I frequently use the lead-off analogy to characterize financial markets' propensity to start drifting in the direction of their next most-desired di...
Thu, May 4 2017, 7:37 PM
This morning's Day Ahead laid out a case for bonds taking a "lead-off" ahead of tomorrow's NFP data. It's not necessarily about NFP (the nonfarm pa...
Thu, May 4 2017, 7:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, bringing them back in line with the highest levels in nearly a month. That sounds a bit worse than it actually is, ...
Wed, May 3 2017, 8:57 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day in slightly weaker territory after as-expected ADP Employment data and the Treasury Department commented on the p...
Wed, May 3 2017, 5:12 PM
Today's Fed announcement turned out to be a dud . It's getting headline treatment here based solely on street cred. In and of itself, it could scar...
Wed, May 3 2017, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates ended the day relatively close to ' unchanged ,' depending on the lender. That's somewhat surprising considering the presence of severa...
Wed, May 3 2017, 2:02 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February March indicates tha...
Tue, May 2 2017, 9:28 AM
The relationship between stocks and bonds is difficult to speak about intelligently, unless you're prepared to define it in different ways depending o...
Tue, May 2 2017, 4:17 PM
The trading week has been relatively inconsequential so far. That's the best explanation for today's bond market gains. Sure, there are a few anec...
Tue, May 2 2017, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, but remained well inside the narrow range that's been intact for more than a week. For most lenders, that means co...
Mon, May 1 2017, 9:27 AM
It's an action-packed week for global financial markets, with several major motivations to consider. First and foremost, this is the first day of a n...
Mon, May 1 2017, 5:53 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, keeping them in line with the previous 4 business days. This 5-day block stands out from the p...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 10:31 AM
Bond markets are very much on a fence at the moment with respect to short and intermediate trends. There are a few ways we can measure this fence-sit...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 7:18 PM
Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory, with Treasuries following European yields higher in the overnight session. Domestic hours br...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 2:41 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today, holding onto modest improvements seen yesterday. In many ways, the past 2 days have confirmed that rates are in l...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 9:06 AM
Another day, another chance for bond markets to assess whether they should re-enter the previous 2017 range (or "post-election" range). This is marke...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 6:20 PM
Bond markets have a question. Will we or won't we be heading back into the sideways, post-election rate range? for top tier mortgage rates, the ra...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, following a policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). Some investors were concerned the ECB might be...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 9:48 AM
The order of the day and week for domestic bond markets has been and will continue to be the break out from the recently friendly trend toward lower r...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 5:14 PM
Today's main event was the release of the Trump administration's new tax plan. Markets didn't go overboard in their expectations of major revelatio...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates were relatively unchanged today, but only after averaging the disparate changes from various lenders. That means some lenders are in mu...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 9:14 AM
For the past 5+ months, any discussion of "the gap" among bond traders could have only referred to the 2.15-2.17 gap created on Veterans Day weekend...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 4:56 PM
With a 2nd day of fairly strong selling pressure in bond markets, the recent trend toward lower rates has been forcefully called into question. ...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher again higher today, as global financial markets continued reacting to recent geopolitical flashpoints (like the...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 9:09 AM
For bond markets, most of 2017 has been dominated by the "post-election range" (or "the 2017 range," if you prefer) consisting of 10yr yields betwee...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 5:33 PM
Heading into the French election at the end of last week, we knew that Le Pen (the candidate who likely would have helped the bond rally continue) pro...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today, and most of the blame goes to the presidential election in France. If you're wondering what European pol...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 9:11 AM
It remains to be seen whether all the hype is justified, but for whatever reason, markets are transfixed by this weekend's French election. Several r...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 5:23 PM
Today was shaping up to be very slow and boring, with bond markets making some inconsequential gains as traders shed risk ahead of this weekend's Fren...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher this week as global financial markets braced for volatility surrounding this weekend's French election...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 9:11 AM
"Consolidation" has a bit of a different connotation when it comes to financial markets (as opposed to the dictionary definition of "the process of ma...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 5:30 PM
Europe has been the driving force for US bond markets over the past 2 days. Perhaps this will continue to be the case or perhaps it's simply due to...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as global financial markets shifted ahead of this weekend's election in France. One of the candidates--Le Pen--is a ...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 8:49 AM
When your career is directly impacted by bond market trends, and when you watch those trends on a nitty gritty, intraday level, one of the most insidi...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 4:47 PM
There are a lot of pieces on the board at the moment for the bond market rally that's been intact since mid-March. That rally began with a friendli...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher today, depending on the lender, despite bond market weakness. Typically, bond market weakness results in...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 9:25 AM
While there is more economic data on the calendar today, bond markets continue to look elsewhere for inspiration. Geopolitical risks, fiscal policy, ...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 5:18 PM
One of these days we may be forced to conclude that bonds simply WANT to be rallying , regardless of the justification. One day it's Syria. The nex...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 3:50 PM
After stumbling just slightly yesterday, mortgage rates returned to their recent habit of setting new 2017 lows today. At this point, we're getting cl...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 9:09 AM
On Good Friday (when markets were closed), both Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index came out weaker than expected. Of particular interest i...
