Fri, Nov 18 2016, 9:02 AM
Treasuries technically hit overnight highs late in yesterday's session, but it was the overnight hours that saw the more substantial weakness. Long-t...
Fri, Nov 18 2016, 5:41 PM
If you were wondering why I was hesitant to get on board with the modest improvements and sideways ground-holding of the past few days, today brings t...
Fri, Nov 18 2016, 4:49 PM
It was all pain , all the time for mortgage rates today. Since the election, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate has risen roughly 0.5%, putting ...
Thu, Nov 17 2016, 10:02 AM
This morning's commentary will be a bit heavy in terms of the focus on technical analysis, but as always, this isn't exactly old school, textbook tech...
Thu, Nov 17 2016, 5:46 PM
Google up the 5-timer club if you're not familiar. We have a new inductee today, although it's not exactly the same club as seen on Saturday Night ...
Thu, Nov 17 2016, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates may have caught a break yesterday , but today is a different story. Or perhaps it's a different kind of break... a bad one... more of a...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 10:09 AM
We started to talk about "the gap" in yesterday's closing commentary and unless bond market momentum manages to stay far weaker than anyone expects,...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 5:40 PM
Bond markets managed to scrape together a day-over-day improvement by a very small margin. 10yr yields closed 1.6bps lower and Fannie 3.5s gained a p...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates finally caught a break today, moving somewhat lower after hitting the highest levels of the year yesterday afternoon. In fact, several ...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 10:03 AM
Big moves in bond markets always result in big conclusions from all manner of market participants. Whether it's Chief Strategist at some big bank, ...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 7:22 PM
If you've ever had the misfortune of experiencing a sharp stick in your eye, then you have a great reference point for today's bond market movement. ...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Those who raised rates yesterday afternoon were more likely to show small day-over-day impro...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 9:27 AM
"Taper tantrum" refers to the market's reaction to the revelation that the Fed would begin reducing the pace of its asset purchases in mid-2013. For ...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 7:53 PM
With Thursday marking a slightly less robust day of selling compared to Wednesday, it was all too tempting to hope that the bond market was just get...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 5:18 PM
It's been a long time since anyone could say that top tier conventional conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rates were at 4% . Indeed, even last Monday, th...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 10:30 AM
We talk about " momentum " a lot when it comes to bond market movement. I like reducing financial market concepts and reducing them to easy-to-unders...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 6:26 PM
Mortgage Rates continued a relentless move higher today, as financial markets continue rapidly adjusting the price of new realities (more on that in a...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 6:19 PM
In the Day Ahead, we discussed the concept of ' momentum ' in bond markets. I likened the current momentum situation to an unexpected running of the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 5:37 PM
These are the sorts of things I think about sometimes when I'm coming up with a title for the recap. If you have enough of a stake in bond market mov...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 4:38 PM
Mortgage Rates skyrocketed today, relative to their average range of movement. It was the single biggest move higher since the days of the taper tantr...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 2:30 AM
This will be a brutally simple piece of analysis. If you'd like to see the same conclusions expressed in vastly more words, read almost anything I'...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 9:22 AM
This week's absence of relevant economic data seems to be by design. Markets may have chosen to focus on the election even if there had been importan...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 5:14 PM
Market participants are HUNGRY for information on election day! While that comes as no surprise (indeed, traders always want to know what's going o...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 3:46 PM
Mortgage Rates rose today as early presidential polls showed Clinton leading in several battleground states. At least when it comes to the most immedi...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 10:02 AM
In terms of scheduled economic data and events, this week is almost completely barren. In addition, Friday is Veteran's Day , and no matter what any...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 5:28 PM
Today was perhaps the simplest trading session for bond markets in recent memory. There was one relevant piece of information and one meaningful mo...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 4:55 PM
Mortgage Rates were unchanged today despite a fair amount of weakness in the bond market. Rates typically rise when bonds weaken. The absence of volat...
Fri, Nov 4 2016, 9:52 AM
Europe.
Above all else, the evolution of the European recovery-- especially as it relates to the various fiscal and monetary policy responses in t...
Fri, Nov 4 2016, 5:00 PM
I've seen today's jobs report referred to as both stronger and weaker in several ways. At worst, it was "mixed," and generally erred on the stronge...
Fri, Nov 4 2016, 4:28 PM
Mortgage Rates were slightly lower today--a counterintuitive move considering the big jobs report was slightly stronger that expected. To be clear, th...
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 9:53 AM
There can be no doubt that bond markets are responding to recent political headlines. But there's even less of a doubt that stock markets are far mor...
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 4:57 PM
Thank the overnight trading session for an anticlimactic day. It set a healthy range of highs and lows that daytime trading never managed to break....
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 4:03 PM
Mortgage Rates were slightly higher today, keeping them in line with the weakest levels in just over 5 months. "Weakness" is relative, however. Apart ...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 9:26 AM
Let's not get too excited, but bonds have begun an attempt to bounce at the higher side of their multi-month trend channel (the "uptrend" leading to...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 5:25 PM
Taken in and of itself, today's Fed statement was "net-hawkish." That means, relative to the last announcement, the verbiage took small but noticea...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 4:37 PM
Mortgage Rates eased just a bit more today, marking the 4th day of relative stability after a sharp rise last Thursday. Although there was a Fed annou...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 9:54 AM
The Summer months sure were great for bond markets, weren't they? Massive rally in June, all-time low yields in July, and reasonable stability just o...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 5:40 PM
The political theater is ramping up quickly, with unexpected afternoon twitter headlines stealing the show from longstanding market movers like ISM ...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 4:44 PM
Mortgage Rates continue to operate near 5-month highs , after putting in a mixed performance today. The morning was especially bad as stronger global ...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 10:15 AM
It's no mystery that the prevailing trend in bond markets has been negative for several months. At first , this was no big deal, as Treasury yields ...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 5:09 PM
The last trading day of any given month is more volatile and more actively traded than the average trading day. That wasn't the case today, which i...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 3:58 PM
Mortgage Rates moved sideways to slightly lower for the 2nd day in a row, after hitting the highest levels in 5 months on Thursday. While the positive...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 10:26 AM
It's going to be a while until we can truly sort out whether the current bout of bond market weakness is the same sort of correction seen in early 201...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 4:48 PM
After 2 days of heavy selling in global bond markets, today was a relative paradise of inactivity. Volume remained rather high by historical standard...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 3:40 PM
Mortgage Rates recovered slightly today, after hitting the highest levels in nearly 5 months yesterday. Unfortunately, that leaves today's rates with ...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 9:52 AM
Paul McCartney will only be signing about "bonds on the run" if he's in the market for a mortgage, because bonds are running in the wrong direction. ...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 6:50 PM
Traders who reported seeing buying signals as 10yr yields approached 1.80 earlier this week would surely like to borrow a time machine . In retrospe...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 2:23 PM
Mortgage Rates are much higher today, regardless of anything else you may have seen. Why am I alluding to other things you may have seen? Because it's...
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 9:37 AM
Last week provided some hope for bond markets due to a relatively strong move off the recent highs. 10yr yields recovered from the previous week's 1....
