Mon, Aug 15 2016, 3:50 PM
Sure, we've 'endured' the rigors of a day-to-day ups and downs in bond markets over the past month, but if we step back from the charts by more than a...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 3:01 PM
In addition to writing about mortgage rates , I also follow and analyze the underlying bond markets. Early on in that endeavor, one of my favorite phr...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 9:08 AM
By Wednesday of this week, we were assessing the possibility of a positive break of the range in bonds. Yesterday, those hopes were dashed by a fai...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 4:23 PM
Today was another nice, simple day for bond markets. Yields entered the domestic session slightly lower, thanks to weak data overseas. Even then, ...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 3:37 PM
Just a day after bouncing firmly higher from the lowest levels in a month, mortgage rates are right back down to the bottom of the recent range. For s...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 9:41 AM
In July 2012 and July 2016, 10yr yields visit to all time lows was cordoned-off fairly neatly by yields in the 1.50-1.52 neighborhood. We've been t...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:59 PM
Coming into today, bond markets were amped up. UK 10yr yields hit new all-time lows yesterday. German 10yr yields were close to hitting all-time l...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates bounced higher today , after 2 solid days of improvement. In the bigger picture, rates are still closer to the lowest levels of the pas...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 9:04 AM
First off, let's cover the huge drop in MBS prices overnight. Fannie 3.0s, for instance, closed at 103-29 and then began today at 103-23--all this de...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 5:12 PM
Bonds strong overnight with more help from Europe
10yr Auction strong this afternoon with massive foreign support
1.52-1.62 range in 10yr yields...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates improved again today , bringing them back in line with the lowest levels of the month. Considering that today is only the 10th day of t...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 9:11 AM
Today's chart has a piece of technical analysis I haven't posted in quite a while, but it's fairly easy to understand and fairly useful. The tech in ...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds were facing headwinds as the week began. Friday had just seen an exceptionally strong NFP. Yields were quickly pushing toward the higher end o...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:07 PM
It was a good day for mortgage rates . After moving higher at a somewhat disconcerting pace last Friday, rates were quickly approaching the upper boun...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 9:12 AM
Bond markets sold-off fairly aggressively following Friday's strong jobs report with 10yr yields moving up nearly 10bps and Fannie 3.0s falling roughl...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 5:30 PM
Today could have been better, but it could have been much worse. After the big spike that followed Friday's jobs report, bonds were on the weaker edg...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, extending a sharp move that began on Friday following stronger-than-expected employment data. There are two dis...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 8:29 AM
Granted, by the time most of you read this, NFP will already be out, but I'm not as interested in the initial reaction as I am in how things play out ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 6:39 PM
In the constantly-evolving modern era of market-watching, it's rare to see simply, old-school "cause and effect" relationship between data and market ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 5:36 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher at the fastest pace in more than 3 weeks today, following a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Employment Situat...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 8:44 AM
Bond markets are stronger out of the gate this morning as the Bank of England (BOE) followed through on expectations to cut its key policy rate from...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 5:45 PM
This recap won't be too terribly different from the morning update on MBS Live. In fact, that's about all the more complicated today ended up being. ...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately lower today, keeping them well-within the dominant range of the past 2-3 weeks. Compared to yesterday, lenders would be...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 9:13 AM
Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today. Bonds can "survive...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:50 PM
Here is the primer on Corporate Bond Issuance for those who need it. I realize it's been linked in almost every post this week, but that's the kind o...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates were nominally higher today, though you'd be hard-pressed to find any evidence of that on lender rate sheets. For all practical pu...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 8:52 AM
The 2 weeks leading up to last week's FOMC Announcement (and Bank of Japan too) saw an exceptionally narrow trading range. The 2 weeks before that sa...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 5:24 PM
Bond markets capped a rather unpleasant 2-day move today. While 10yr yields only rose 3.4bps by the close, the losses put us right back in the 1.52-1...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today, after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks last Friday. Like yesterday, today's increase was fai...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 8:59 AM
Back in 2015--almost exactly a year ago, actually--the order of the day was determining the timing of the Fed's first rate hike since the financial cr...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 7:01 PM
We were already defensive, to some extent, about the possibility that last Friday's gains were driven by month-end trading needs. Indeed, there was a...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 5:51 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks last Friday. Today's increase was fairly minimal in the big ...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 8:39 AM
With 10yr yields up only 2.2bps to begin the day and MBS down only 2 ticks, it's interesting to note that initial reaction to the overnight policy ann...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:46 PM
Heading into the close at much stronger levels this afternoon, it would be easy to overlook the fact that bond markets were weaker overnight (followin...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed another strong day, falling to the best levels in exactly 2 weeks. Rates were actually set to move higher early this morni...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 9:06 AM
One tricky thing about technical analysis (things like moving averages and other mathematical formulas applied to charts in order to get them to cough...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 4:57 PM
In the bigger picture, today was all about confirming and consolidating yesterday's gains. Trading levels held inside narrow ranges for both MBS an...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates fell at the quickest pace in more than a month today as lenders priced-in the market improvements seen after yesterday's Fed Announ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 8:21 AM
First thing's first: "consolidation" refers to a pronounced narrowing of a trading range after an uptrend or downtrend. Consolidations can occur with...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 4:49 PM
Dovish vs Hawkish: This refers to how accommodative the Fed's policy stance might be. Have you ever seen a hawk stare down its prey? That's how a ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, although that's only true for lenders who issued mid-day improvements following the Fed's policy announ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Apri...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 9:03 AM
Smart stakeholders in financial markets tend to avoid assuming or asserting that particular trading levels WILL behave in a particular way. There are...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 6:26 PM
Last week saw the yields increasingly hold inside the "new narrow" range between 1.54 and 1.59. Frankly, I felt like it was a long shot for that ra...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, and are now effectively at the highest levels in month. That sounds a bit more dire than it is, thoug...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets begin another week in the same sideways range, still waiting for the same events to suggest the next concerted effort to take yields hi...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:30 PM
Bond markets did nothing wrong today. There was a bit of red on trade screens (indicating modestly higher yields in Treasuries and lower MBS prices...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, making three out of the past 4 days where rates haven't budged and 6 out of the past 7 days where rates...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 9:05 AM
If bond-trading aliens scanned the universe for signs of life and happened upon planet earth this week, they probably wouldn't even send an imperial p...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 5:32 PM
Bond markets had yet another uneventful day with yet another close inside the same old range that's dominated the entire week (with one brief exceptio...
