Mon, Dec 18 2023, 4:06 PM
Uneventful!
Through the 3pm CME close, today's trading volume in longer term Treasuries was the lowest in mo...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 11:26 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the holiday-shortened week (early close on Friday) and the losses happened to coincide with comments from Fed's Goo...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 3:38 PM
Survey-based rate indices haven't yet had time to account for the massive drop in mortgage rates this week, but rest assured, it was special. That's ...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 3:37 PM
Solid Conclusion to Superlative Week
Friday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond market, as long as...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 11:50 AM
Any time bonds improve as much as they have over the past 2 days (and indeed over the past 2 months), there's a risk of a corrective bounce. In fact,...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 3:57 PM
Today's headline speaks for itself: one of the biggest 2-day drops in rates in decades. Simply put, over the past 48 hours, mortgage rates have moved...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 3:55 PM
Big Rally Just Getting Started or at Risk of a Correction?
Overseas markets added on to the rate rally inspi...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 11:47 AM
"Pivot" is the word of the day as the Fed's dot plot and Powell's press conference are being viewed as confirmation that the Fed has pivoted away from...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 5:03 PM
Today brought the scheduled Fed policy announcement that we've been waiting for and mortgage rates plummeted as a result. So does that mean the Fed c...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 5:02 PM
Huge Rally as Dots Deliver and Powell Stays Out of The Way
It may have seemed that we were paying too much a...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity expanded at a has slowed from its strong pace in the in the third quarter. Job gain...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 10:55 AM
The Fed has a way to convey where it sees the Fed Funds Rate in the coming years via the dot plot. The bond market has a way to make its own bets via...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 4:27 PM
When it comes to interest rates reacting to scheduled economic reports, the magnitude of the reaction is generally correlated with the extent to which...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 4:26 PM
Dots, Dots, Dots, Dots
What's the most important ingredient in tomorrow's Fed announcement and related event...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 9:45 AM
The relationship between data and market movement is both brutally simple and frustratingly nuanced depending on the circumstances. More often than n...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is coming off an important and largely successful week. It was important because it was the fir...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 3:40 PM
Bonds Breathe Sigh of Relief After Auctions. CPI Up Next
It's been quite a while since we've dusted off the ...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 9:59 AM
Little has changed since last Friday other than yields being a few bps higher. The bond market still has to digest a condensed auction calendar over ...
Fri, Dec 8 2023, 5:07 PM
Surprisingly Resilient Despite Stronger NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)--the headline component of the big jobs r...
Fri, Dec 8 2023, 4:35 PM
Heading into this week (and even throughout the entirety of last week) we were mostly focused on seeing today's jobs report for the next big dose of i...
Fri, Dec 8 2023, 11:39 AM
Bond bulls have been on parade since November 1st and especially since November 14th (CPI). Since then, we haven't seen any real threats to the linea...
Thu, Dec 7 2023, 4:59 PM
If you're reading this on Thursday, December 7th, it is the day before the big jobs report--the one that has all the potential in the world to cause h...
Thu, Dec 7 2023, 4:56 PM
How Big Could Friday's Jobs Report Be?
Thursday ended up being a very calm day relative to most of the recen...
Thu, Dec 7 2023, 11:59 AM
Thursday didn't exactly have any high risk events from a data standpoint with weekly Jobless Claims being the most notable report. Claims came in very...
Wed, Dec 6 2023, 4:47 PM
Mortgage rates are hitting lower milestones like it's their nine to five recently and today was just another day at the office. The average lender wa...
Wed, Dec 6 2023, 4:44 PM
More Gains. Are Bonds Overbought?
The combination of friendly economic data, dovish comments from the Bank o...
Wed, Dec 6 2023, 12:11 PM
Another day, another set of economic reports that offer no objections to the steady bond market rally of the past few weeks. Yesterday's heavy liftin...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:26 PM
Right from the start and with only a few days that didn't fit the narrative, November was a stellar month for mortgage rates, and December is picking ...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:12 PM
Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows
We knew that today's JOLTS and ISM repor...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 12:43 PM
JOLTS, the job openings and labor turnover survey, used to be a very forgettable report. On a scale of potential market movers, we've always assigned...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
Apart from this past Friday, you'd have to go back to September 1st to see lower mortgage rates than today. It probably makes the best sense to view ...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
A Bit of Meaningless Weakness. More Important Stuff On Deck
Bonds lost ground to start the new week, but not...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 11:45 AM
Bond rallies = lower rates. We like bond rallies. But when rates fall too quickly or consistently, it can be too much of a good thing. That's a phe...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:05 PM
Just yesterday, we were nodding in agreement and acceptance of the fact that rates were better served by cooling off a bit (read: "rising") after impr...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Another Surprisingly Eager Bond Rally Suggests Caution and Opportunity
Two days ago, the focus of the analys...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 12:28 PM
With it being the first trading day of a new month and a Friday, it's hard to determine the extent to which traders planned to buy bonds today providi...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 3:08 PM
If you count the Friday after Thanksgiving as a business day, mortgage rates had fallen for 6 straight days as of yesterday afternoon. Moreover, they...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 11:45 AM
It would have been a lot to ask for bonds to continue rallying without any major justification after hitting 4.25% yesterday and after 50bp rally over...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 5:03 PM
There were no major economic reports or news headlines in play today. Movement in the bond market (which underlies mortgage rate changes) was orderly...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 3:14 PM
Shifting Trends, Shifting Strategies?
Another day of modest to moderate gains, but this time without the sam...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 12:00 PM
The "base case" of a narrower, more sideways range between CPI and NFP is increasingly being disproven by a more bullish reality. Especially after th...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:52 PM
The trend in rates has been very linear in the 2nd half of the month and the day-to-day changes have been getting smaller and smaller. On 5 of the las...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:38 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Willing to Rally on Fed Comments
The only notable market mover for bonds was a rather bas...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:24 PM
The tedium that is the 2nd half of November continues to underwhelm. Specifically, we're in a lull between CPI 2 weeks ago and Nonfarm Payrolls next w...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:23 PM
Thanksgiving week is always an interesting (and frequently frustrating) time for the bond market that underlies day to day interest rate changes. Mar...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:20 PM
Back Near Best Levels After Solid Auction Results
For those who'd been watching bond markets on Friday's hal...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 9:35 AM
The end of November has been true to form with several examples of directional movement despite an absence of motivation. Last Friday was perhaps the...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:45 PM
"Lower volatility and more sideways momentum" have been the themes as we've moved away from last week's more consequential economic data. The underly...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:35 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We'll Be Back on Monday
While Friday will technically be a half day for...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 12:06 PM
Up until yesterday, we would have placed the lower boundary of the prevailing range somewhere between the 4.40% lows from last Friday and the 4.43% pi...
