Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:53 PM
Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge
10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:21 PM
Since hitting 2 month highs last Tuesday, mortgage rates have mostly moved lower. The past 3 days have all seen solid improvements in response to eco...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 12:29 PM
Apart from Monday, which had no meaningful econ data, today was the best candidate for an uneventful day on what is otherwise an important data week. ...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Gains Despite Apparent Market Movers
It was an interesting day for the bond market. Yields drop...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:37 PM
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates in the high 6 percent range have been available months now, and that didn't change in the past few weeks when r...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 9:18 AM
It's understandably nerve-wracking for fans of low rates to see a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell on the calendar. Granted, some of tho...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 4:32 PM
Gains Before and After Data
Today's big to-do was the ISM Non-Manufacturing data at 10am ET. Of the two ISM...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market. Bonds can move for several reasons at any given moment, but a key consideration these days ...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:39 AM
Yields spiked in the first half of February as the jobs report and CPI both suggested a stubbornly resilient economy and inflation outlook. That was ...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were at the best levels in 2 weeks as of last Friday and today's offerings are only modestly higher. One counterpoint is that it didn'...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:27 PM
Sleepy Start to What May Be an Exciting Week
Every now and then the bond market makes a case for a 4 day wor...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 11:09 AM
We've been looking forward to the first week of March since the Feb 13th CPI report because this is the first time since then that we'll see a top tie...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 4:56 PM
Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction
With ISM Manufacturing, Friday brought the only other reasonably i...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 3:24 PM
The average lender was offering slightly higher rates this morning when compared to yesterdays latest levels, but things began to change after 10am ET...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 12:46 PM
We haven't talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday's PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered. Thus,...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:50 PM
It Took a Village (Of Econ Data)
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ d...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:05 PM
In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as "trending gently higher," but in the shorter term, today was a victory. The av...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 10:44 AM
Today's most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January. In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and a...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 4:05 PM
Small Scale Volatility But Very Sideways Overall
There were a few instances of volatility in the bond market...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 3:50 PM
Despite the release of economic data that sounds like it should matter to markets (mainly "GDP"), the bonds that drive interest rates had a remarkably...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 12:05 PM
The bond market may be data dependent (it totally is!), but not just any data will do. You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like "GDP" and "Cor...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 4:03 PM
Weird Reaction to Durable Goods, But Generally Slow and Sideways
The economic data drought finally began to ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 2:50 PM
One of the downsides of rates being very close to the highest levels in months is that it doesn't take much of nudge to hit new highs. That was ALMOS...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 12:28 PM
With apologies to those who follow closely enough to know how frequently this notion has been recycled recently, bonds continue grinding sideways as i...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher to begin the new week, but they remained just under the highest recent levels seen last Thursday. Many lenders...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:55 PM
Auctions Caused Modest Weakness, But Mostly in Advance
As the bond market looks at the 5yr Treasury auction ...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 10:07 AM
While it may not prove to be the most relevant market mover of the week, the upcoming Treasury auction cycle is at least in the running. This particu...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:31 PM
One of the upsides of these weeks with boring, sideways movement in the rate market is that it doesn't take much of an improvement to undo several day...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:28 PM
Strong Friday For Bonds Helps Keep Sideways Vibes Intact
Friday ended up being surprisingly strong for the b...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 11:44 AM
It was destined to be a mostly boring, sideways week (to whatever extent "destiny" actually has any predictive value). Perhaps it's more fair to say ...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 3:23 PM
The Drift Continues
Bonds only had a small reaction to the stronger Jobless Claims data, despite the referen...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 2:44 PM
Mortgage rates continue making nearly microscopic movements in day-over-day terms, but they continue adding up. Today's increase over yesterday was n...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 12:14 PM
Rates are "data dependent" and the two biggest pieces of economic data are CPI and the big jobs report. Neither are on today's calendar, but there wa...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 4:57 PM
Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness
Bonds managed to start the day in modestly s...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 4:20 PM
In the short term, mortgage rates haven't experienced any extreme movement since earlier in the month, but a slow trickle of weakness is starting to a...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 12:29 PM
Bonds had a generally constructive day to start the holiday-shortened week yesterday, with yields rallying in the morning and ultimately holding modes...
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 4:27 PM
Slow Start as Markets Wait For Inspiration
Bonds got off to a slow start despite the holiday-shortened week....
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 4:18 PM
Most mortgage lenders set rates for the first time this week on Tuesday (today) due to yesterday's holiday. Federal holidays mean banks are closed wh...
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds were moving with a clear purpose at the end of 2023 before embarking on a small, logical correction at the beginning of 2024. In terms of 10yr ...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 5:17 PM
At present, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the jobs report are the two most important considerations for interest rate momentum as far as economic...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 5:02 PM
Inflation Surprises Delay The Decision
In the short term, it's nice to see that today's massively higher PP...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 11:56 AM
If CPI is a 10 out of 10 on a scale of economic data that causes bond market volatility, PPI is never more than a 5. It's a good thing too. All it t...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:43 PM
Reasons For Hope And Caution Heading Into 3-Day Weekend
First off, "hope" and "caution" have different meani...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:21 PM
While weekly mortgage rate indices are pointing out the sharp jump from last Wednesday's levels, daily rates have fallen twice in a row. The peak was...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 9:57 AM
Apart from CPI and NFP there are only a handful of other reports that truly deserve to be considered supporting actors in the current bond market dram...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:23 PM
As is often the case, there are a few ways to look at rates at the moment. In the medium term, we can still take heart in the fact that rates are abo...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:22 PM
Refreshing Resilience, But Not Guaranteed
On a positive note, it was refreshing to see the bond market make ...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 12:20 PM
Wednesday is shaping up to be a victory based on early trading, with bonds pushing back tentatively on yesterday's big sell-off. The emphasis is on t...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:55 PM
If it feels like there's been an inordinate amount of focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently, today proved it was justified. It's not hard ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:16 PM
Unfortunately, Bonds Did Exactly What They Were Supposed to Do Today
Over the course of the past two weeks, ...
