Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:12 AM
Bonds came into the domestic trading day with additional losses. This wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it was a distinct possibility based on past e...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sidew...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:27 PM
March ended with a streak of some of the flattest day-over-day changes in mortgage rates on record. It was all but certain that the new week/month wo...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 9:00 AM
There are two times of morning that could be considered "the open" for the bond market. As far as the futures market is concerned, it's 8:20am as tha...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:22 PM
Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day
Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of th...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:01 PM
Unfortunately, we don't have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it's safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:44 PM
There are probably only a few 4-day streaks with effectively no movement in mortgage rates, and this is one of them. After falling to 6.91% last Frid...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 3:44 PM
After moving back under 7% last week (conventional, 30yr fixed, top tier scenario), mortgage rates have been increasingly unlikely to move. Today was...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed a decently strong week last week, with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate moving down to 6.91% by Friday from 7....
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:19 PM
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market
While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might a...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:15 PM
As the broader market continued rubbing its eyes in disbelief over the Fed's exceptionally calm attitude on inflation, bonds continued to improve toda...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 12:11 PM
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:50 PM
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:33 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again to check in with Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey versus reality. To be fair, it's not that Freddie i...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 12:40 PM
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight. Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:25 PM
The rate market was intently focused on today's announcement from the Federal Reserve. While many news headlines emphasize the Fed "holding rates ste...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged on Tuesday, capping a short but meaningful losing streak over the past 6 business days. During that time, the av...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and ...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon. In the slightly...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 9:43 AM
Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc. Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends. In some cases, they can ser...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:49 PM
Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM
Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and ...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 9:47 AM
This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM
Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:18 PM
Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation ...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:46 AM
Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data. The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, ...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:23 PM
Calmer Day of Losses. Data Resumes on Thursday
Without any notable econ data on tap, bonds were left to thei...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates are nowhere near their highs from a few short weeks ago, let alone the much higher highs from late 2023, but they are at the highest le...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:27 AM
Bonds are off to a weaker start today, but not in a major way and not due to any interesting developments. In general, there was some optimism headin...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 4:03 PM
Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness
Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) ...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 3:50 PM
Today brought the release of one of the most consequential economic reports that comes out on any given month: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI me...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 9:51 AM
It's been a weird morning so far with core CPI coming in at 0.4 vs 0.3 forecast--something that should have certainly sent bonds scrambling into weake...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday's Data
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder tr...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates hit their best levels in more than a month by the end of last week after moving lower for 4 straight days. If you could only know one ...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:06 AM
February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation. On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analys...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
All in All a Pretty Logical Week
It seems weird to consider, but Friday's trading--and indeed, the week's tr...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:08 PM
It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that c...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 1:34 PM
Today's jobs report has proven to be one of the most extreme examples of competing narratives in the past year or so. The headline number wasn't too ...
