Fri, Nov 7 2014, 5:14 PM
Mortgage rates made a strong move lower
today, erasing the entire week's losses and regaining levels last seen
on October 30th and 31st. In ...
Fri, Nov 7 2014, 5:13 PM
S&P futures--the best and most liquid snapshot of the broader US stock market--closed yesterday about 2 points higher than they are heading into the c...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 12:21 PM
This morning's main event was the post-announcement press conference with ECB (European Central Bank) President Mario Draghi. It made for some volati...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 7:22 AM
The actual geometric shape that would be required to account for all the different considerations affecting bond markets would be one of those long do...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 5:19 PM
With this morning's ECB events merely causing volatility that resulted in essentially no change in trading levels, the most interesting aspect of th...
Thu, Nov 6 2014, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates didn't budge today . Most lenders didn't adjust rate sheets enough to affect yesterday's loan quotes. This is a fairly rare occur...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 12:50 PM
While today had a chance to kick off the bigger potential volatility expected during the second half of the week, an uneventful reaction to election...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 7:32 AM
( NOTE : BLS and NFP are used somewhat interchangeably below, but the numbers in the charts are actually BLS's PRIVATE payrolls as NFP includes too mu...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates continued their now incessant trend of exceptionally small day-to-day movement, rising only marginally today and remaining in the ...
Wed, Nov 5 2014, 4:43 PM
Tomorrow morning brings the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference with ECB Pres. Mario Draghi. While nothing new is expected ...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 12:18 PM
Treasuries were stronger overnight as substantially downgraded Eurozone growth forecasts pulled yields lower. Interestingly (or 'suspiciously') eno...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 7:43 AM
I haven't mentioned mid-term elections until today, which is a pretty fair deal considering their potential market impact. It may even be giving them...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 5:00 PM
Bond markets traded an "inside day" today, meaning that the entirety of today's trading ranges in MBS and Treasuries fell "inside" the highs and lows ...
Tue, Nov 4 2014, 3:26 PM
Mortgage rates recovered somewhat
after moving to the highest levels in nearly a month yesterday. That
sounds more dramatic than it is consi...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 12:12 PM
The overnight session got off to a slow start for US bond markets as Japan was out on holiday. This is important not only because overnight Treasury ...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 7:26 AM
After last week's anticlimactic reaction to the end of QE3, the current week offers up several places to look for the inspiration owed to bond markets...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 5:13 PM
In the context of a fairly narrow trading range by historical standards, bond markets had a volatile day. The start of the overnight session saw the ...
Mon, Nov 3 2014, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, edging up to their worst levels in nearly a month. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 12:46 PM
This will largely be a reprint of an update that appeared on MBS Live this morning. Reason being: that update covered the impact of big, surprising n...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 7:32 AM
No single method of market analysis is always better than another, which is why it's always better to consider as many as possible and look for agreem...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 5:01 PM
10yr yields are heading out the door at 2.335--a very significant level considering it had been the lowest closing yield of the year until October 8...
Fri, Oct 31 2014, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates drifted inconsequentially higher to end the month, remaining well-within the recent range, albeit closer to the higher end. The mo...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 12:02 PM
"Jobless Claims remained in the 280's and GDP came in at 3.5 vs a 3.0 forecast. So naturally, bond markets are adding to yesterday's weakness."
Th...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 7:29 AM
GDP reports come in three flavors: advance, preliminary, and final. Today is the 'advance' reading for the 3rd quarter and hence the first look at Q3...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 4:59 PM
If the official end of QE is to be an inspirational moment for bond markets in the bigger picture, you wouldn't know it based on how trading has gone ...
Thu, Oct 30 2014, 3:48 PM
Mortgage rates pulled back
to hold near 4 percent after rising to the highest levels in 3 weeks.
After yesterday's Fed announcement, the mos...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 12:11 PM
MBS and Treasuries are at their weakest levels in 3 weeks ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Announcement. That's really all there is to it. We haven't ...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 7:32 AM
I worked really hard just now on avoiding the use of the cliche headline opener "all eyes." You see that a lot (no pun intended) when it comes to thi...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 5:03 PM
Nine times out of ten, any conversation about trading volume in bond markets is pointless and dangerous when it comes to considering potential mor...
Wed, Oct 29 2014, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the highest level in 3 weeks
after today's Fed Announcement. The move was a two-part process with
initial rate shee...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 12:13 PM
Treasuries and MBS have seen modest volatility within a modest range this morning. The stage was set with overnight weakness resulting in weaker op...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 7:35 AM
Beginning last Thursday, Treasuries and MBS have increasingly gone through the motions of consolidation ahead of tomorrow's FOMC Announcement. Intere...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 5:43 PM
Despite one solid attempt to bounce back to unchanged levels this morning, bond markets spent the day in weaker territory. For most of the day this ...
Tue, Oct 28 2014, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were almost universally sideways today with very few lenders changing rate sheets noticeably from yesterday. As such, the most ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 12:15 PM
On Friday, European considerations pulled bond markets into weaker territory after a draft of the bank stress test results showed numerous banks with ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 7:32 AM
This week's headliner will be Wednesday afternoon's FOMC Announcement. While this isn't one of the Fed Announcements that includes the economic proje...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 4:34 PM
The week got off to a woefully uneventful start. Like many Mondays in terms of trading activity, this one may as well not have happened. The only ...
Mon, Oct 27 2014, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged
over the weekend. Most lenders are still right in line with Friday's
most prevalently-quote...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 7:22 AM
We approached Thursday's session with a mainstream viewpoint and alternative, more bullish possibilities to consider. The mainstream viewpoint (amo...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 5:19 PM
Mortgage rates caught a break today and were able to ease just slightly lower heading into the weekend. This is somewhat refreshing because yest...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 4:37 PM
Earlier today, competing short term trends and considerations made for several salient swings between gains and losses. While MBS and Treasuries nev...
Fri, Oct 24 2014, 1:18 PM
If today's bond market movements were a ball game, it would be the kind you like to see, with numerous lead changes , no runaway victory, and the hom...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 7:32 AM
Yesterday morning's notes presented a mostly bullish case for bond markets with today as the first potential break from the corrective/consolidative...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 5:38 PM
Mortgage rates did as expected and departed their recently more stable range today. Unfortunately, we got the less enjoyable of the two potential ...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 5:33 PM
Today was decidedly negative for bond markets. 10yr yields found no solace in "the gap" from 2.26 to 2.28 and instead moved right through to 2.30. ...
Thu, Oct 23 2014, 1:20 PM
Treasury yields moved steadily into the important gap between 2.26 and 2.28 this morning and had been holding their ground just under 2.28 for nearly ...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 7:36 AM
It's been a pretty boring and consolidative week for bond markets so far, so let's have some fun. What follows is essentially a bullish case for bond...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 4:47 PM
When you see the word " consolidation " in market analysis--especially with respect to movement in securities prices/yields--it might as well read "co...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates had their single flattest
day since October 2nd today. This is the polar opposite of last week's
exceptional volatility. The...
Wed, Oct 22 2014, 1:32 PM
Here's a two-part chart that does a nice job of framing today's activity in both a longer and shorter term perspective.
As you can see, we ...
