Wed, Jan 7 2015, 5:03 PM
It actually turned out to be a rather boring day for the parts of the bond market with which we normally concern ourselves. Treasuries and conformi...
Wed, Jan 7 2015, 4:49 AM
Think of all those times that we began discussing FOMC events days, weeks, and even months in advance. Indeed there may be no other greater market mo...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 7:33 AM
From an old-school, conventional market-watching point of view, there is significant data on tap today in the form of ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am. ...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 5:35 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit their best closing levels since May 2013 today as the global flight-to-safety continues. Make no mistake that this move h...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 3:33 PM
Mortgage rates are on an absolute tear. In the past 2 days, they've rocketed a full eighth of a point lower. They're a full quarter point lower t...
Tue, Jan 6 2015, 1:33 PM
Overnight Treasury trading was positive, largely due to spillover from a much more forceful move in European bond markets. Multiple asset classes a...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 12:55 PM
Heading into Christmas, US bond markets began pulling away from European markets in a mostly unfavorable way. In other words, Treasuries and MBS were...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 7:33 AM
This week promises to be nothing like the last 2. Market participation already began ramping back up on Friday and that should be exponentially tru...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen substantially in the first week of 2015. While a few of the most aggressive lenders have been able to offer top tier bo...
Mon, Jan 5 2015, 5:03 PM
2014 was a decisively flatter year for the Treasury yield curve. That means that longer-term (7, 10, 30yr) rates were constantly moving lower relat...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 12:43 PM
Mortgage rates improved significantly to kick off the new year. The gains are a combination of actual improvement in bond markets and lenders lowe...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 11:29 AM
Surprisingly and refreshingly, today's ISM Manufacturing data has been a clear source of motivation for trading activity today. After it came out a...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 7:33 AM
I like to periodically offer a reminder on something I wish I'd understood sooner when it comes to financial markets. While we do indeed live in a hi...
Fri, Jan 2 2015, 3:35 PM
It's been an 'up and down' trading session, but the 'ups' have been the clear winners and that looks increasingly solidified as trading winds down f...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 12:46 PM
Mortgage rates drifted just slightly higher today
amid extra quiet trading conditions. Bond markets (which include the
mortgage-backed-secu...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 12:38 PM
In the same vein as December 26th, this Mid-Day report might end up standing as the Recap due to the stability of the day's range and the mere 90 mi...
Wed, Dec 31 2014, 7:33 AM
The only thing more tedious than of my technical explanations are those journalistic elements that you just KNOW are coming. Let me explain. Imagi...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 12:26 PM
Trading conditions continue to be slow during these holiday weeks. This greases the skids for bigger movements regardless of motivation. Last Wednes...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 7:33 AM
'Grexit' was an overused term--mostly in 2012--that referred (shockingly) to a "Greek exit" from the Eurozone. I hate overused fad jargon just as muc...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates fell today . The move wasn't big, but it was enough to claim the 5th best spot of 2014 . The 4 other days were consecutive and beg...
Tue, Dec 30 2014, 4:53 PM
Unlike most Tuesday's, today actually saw a decreased level of participation in bond markets. Presumably this is due to yesterday offering more rele...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 7:27 AM
The end of the month, quarter, or year brings additional trading considerations and we have all three this week. Some measure of "year-end" trading ...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates continued chipping away at the moderately abrupt increases seen last week. Today's gains were indirectly a result of political inst...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 4:37 PM
Nothing happened this afternoon to add any information or market momentum already in place this morning. The morning events were covered in greater ...
Mon, Dec 29 2014, 2:03 PM
It's been a pretty simple trading session. Overall, participation remains much lower than normal, but has picked up from Friday's levels (which were ...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 11:12 AM
Mortgage rates bounced back moderately
today, erasing Wednesday's losses. Unfortunately, Wednesday's losses
weren't very big compared to Tuesd...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 8:23 AM
The day after Christmas falls on a Friday this year. Incidentally, that's today, and that fact puts us in a position to even more firmly declare it a...
Fri, Dec 26 2014, 7:36 PM
As foreseen, foretold, and prophesied, today's trading session was the slowest of the year for bond markets. It wasn't even close either. 10yr Futur...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 11:20 AM
The last potentially notable event on today's calendar is the 7yr Treasury Auction coming up at 11:30am. 7yr auctions aren't typically something mark...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 7:16 AM
The thing about the big holiday weeks (Thanksgiving and Christmas) is that even though we can discount most of what's happening in terms of volatility...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 1:58 PM
NOTE: Bond markets close at 2pm Eastern today and normal trading hours resume on Friday.
There was not much to write home about in today's session,...
Wed, Dec 24 2014, 1:11 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as lenders opted for typically conservative holiday pricing strategies. The bond markets that most directly ...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 7:32 AM
On just about any other day of the year, today's schedule of economic events would be well worth a few moments of consideration, and certainly capable...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates moved decisively higher today, fueled primarily by the lack of market participation common to this holiday week. Light staffing lev...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 4:56 PM
Measures of bond market volatility spiked this morning WELL before the 8:30am GDP reading. Of course a +5.0 GDP vs a 4.3% forecast will get all kinds...
Tue, Dec 23 2014, 1:00 PM
Despite an abundance of seemingly relevant economic data, volumes are merely on pace with yesterday, which was the slowest session in more than 3 mo...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 11:58 AM
It's a real snooze-fest out there, folks. Volumes were already dropping to nearly half of their recent average by Friday, and will be lucky to brea...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 7:33 AM
The last two weeks of December are not a time where most market participants are thinking about trading opportunistically. Rather, there tends to b...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 3:47 PM
It's rare that the day's MBS RECAP will be published this early in the day (and of course, I'll put out an update if things change significantly), but...
Mon, Dec 22 2014, 2:59 PM
Mortgage rates are fairly hilarious today, though they're not hilariously higher or lower than they were on Friday. Rather, the entertainment come...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 12:42 PM
The past two days saw a decisive bounce in Treasuries precipitated by what might have been a decisive bounce in European bond markets. As of this the...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 7:43 AM
Congratulations! You've reached the end of 2014 in bond markets. Everything from here on out is simply the epilogue to an already-concluded story....
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 4:28 PM
Whether today had ended up positive or negative, the assessment would be the same. It strains credulity to consider, but when human beings that are n...
Fri, Dec 19 2014, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates found their footing today, moving slightly lower after spending the past two days rising at the quickest pace in months. Most lend...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 12:14 PM
From time to time, the best way to recap market events through mid-day will be to revisit things that have already been written. Here's the first: M...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 7:49 AM
Where does yesterday's FOMC Announcement leave us in terms of the rate outlook? The same place we were before the FOMC Announcement!
The only thi...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 4:09 PM
Depending on where you want to draw the line between the overnight and domestic sessions, nothing really happened today. Bond markets were basically...
Thu, Dec 18 2014, 3:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher at a much quicker pace today. This runs counter to the most widely-circulated weekly rate report from Freddie Mac, whi...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 12:46 PM
Treasuries once again broke away from the pack in the overnight session and moved higher in yield. Cues from related markets didn't suggest that wea...
Wed, Dec 17 2014, 7:33 AM
Today's FOMC Announcement at 2pm is a bit of a puzzler, because it has the capability to be one of the more important recent announcements. One reaso...
