Wed, May 5 2010, 5:33 PM
We have seen several days in a row of improving lender pricing thanks to the sovereign debt concerns with Greece and other European countries. At som...
Wed, May 5 2010, 3:09 PM
MBS up 7 ticks at 101-04. 10yr yields at 3.56, having traded from 3.61 to 3.49 today. Stocks rallied and fell again, not quite as bad as the open, bu...
Tue, May 4 2010, 9:58 AM
The stock lever's influence on interest rates is obvious...stocks down, interest rate prices up. A confluence of logic. The Euro is at a one year low....
Tue, May 4 2010, 6:12 PM
I'm just as hopeful as the next guy that stocks DO break lower and the 10yr DOES re-test 3.5 and the 4.5 DOES spend some more time in the 101's. All ...
Tue, May 4 2010, 6:05 PM
The market's nervous sentiment surrounding Greece carried over into today's trading session which has once again led to a flight to safety into the bo...
Tue, May 4 2010, 2:12 PM
We have to remember WHERE the volume is coming from.. In this case, some potential reconcilable sovereign debt concerns. There was plenty of the sam...
Mon, May 3 2010, 10:18 AM
Japan and London are out on holiday so trading flows may be tempered by a lack of broad based conviction. This implies chopatility is highly likely. ...
Mon, May 3 2010, 6:36 PM
"The increase in borrowing and the higher cash balance were due to a combination of the increase in the SFP balance, higher receipts, lower outlays, a...
Mon, May 3 2010, 4:16 PM
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be similar to Friday’s repriced sheets. The par 30 year conventional rate m...
Mon, May 3 2010, 3:06 PM
The lack of conviction discussed in the AM post is obvious in both stocks and bonds today. The S&P is +1.47% at 1204.12. Essentially erasing the losse...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 10:45 AM
This is exactly why we have been preaching the fundamentals of GUTFLOP so much lately. PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL THE RANGE PLAYS YOU and LOCK AT THE PRICE ...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 6:52 PM
Month long rallies in and of themselves are sometimes sufficient cause for the momentum to take a break, either to merely "catch it's breath" or worse...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 2:22 PM
Take a careful look at the charts and how good your pricing is, and consider the trend channel in treasuries is now closer to indicating a move higher...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 10:43 AM
There is a ton of noise surrounding the marketplace at the moment, and it's coming mostly out of the EU. I don't see the trading environment acting a...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 6:36 PM
While a sell off may be in the cards, the recent movements, trends, and volume would put the onus for that more on the the strength or weakness of the...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 6:23 PM
Lender loan pricing is ever so slightly improved today. An afternoon MBS rally allowed a few lenders to reprice for the better as well, but overall mo...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 3:33 PM
Fannie 4.5's up 7 ticks at 100-21. 10's down a few bps from 7yr auction time at 1pm from 3.75 to 3.73. Stocks pausing at resistance, while bonds catch...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 2:17 PM
Same story as yesterday, just more pronounced. Strong demand from the right investors at the right yield. Dealers didn't have to do much heavy liftin...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 12:59 PM
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 10:25 AM
So does this stock selloff stick or is it viewed simply as an opportunity to buy the S&P below 1200? I say rip and run traders! Unless you think the w...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 5:19 PM
If you believe in the continuation of the existing trends/ranges, you understand we might be dealing with a probe to slightly higher yields, but conti...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates are improved from yesterday morning but higher than they were after lenders repriced for the better yesterday afternoon. It appears the...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 2:03 PM
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $42 billion 5 year notes. This was the 6th consecutive offering at this size and likely one of the last times ...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 12:23 PM
Looks like the market is favoring the flight to safety side of the "conflicting view" story I described in the OPEN. The stock lever has engaged in a...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 10:14 AM
In order for the 10 yr note to see much more positive progress, we need 2s to fall below 1.00% again. I doubt that will happen before the FOMC release...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 5:42 PM
It's hard to know how all this will play out in coming days, but I do think it's significant that we saw the highest volume in over a month a day BEFO...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 5:23 PM
S&P, the ratings agency, downgraded Greece's government debt to junk status earlier in the day. This was an unexpected event and resulted in stocks se...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 2:25 PM
Direct bidders offset a continued reduction in indirect demand while primary dealers mopped up the remaining mess. It always makes me nervous when dea...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 12:44 PM
As far as either breaking higher (in yield) over 3.84 or lower past 3.75 (resistance not shown on chart), a couple key events will be informative thi...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 9:02 AM
Main focus today will be on 10yr treasury futures charts for a couple reasons. First of all, treasuries (and especially futures) lend themselves exce...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 5:10 PM
When we say "looking for opportunities to lock," it's to suggest that we keep our eyes open for competitive rate sheets that benefit from the relative...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back and forth in a relatively tight range before going out at their highest levels of the week last Friday. Although prices of...
Fri, Apr 23 2010, 9:21 AM
After touching our long standing 3.71% recovery rally target yesterday, long-term bullish trading technicals are being outweighed by short-term tactic...
Fri, Apr 23 2010, 6:31 PM
Mortgage rates bounced around a tight range for most of the week. There wasn't much in the way of news to motivate movement in the first three days of...
Fri, Apr 23 2010, 2:55 PM
CNBC "broke news" this morning that 6 of 10 FOMC members allegedly believe it would be wise to begin selling their mortgage holdings....in the "near t...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 10:20 AM
I show BoA better, Chase better, Citi worse, GMAC better, and Wells worse. REPRICES FOR THE BETTER AROUND 100-23. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE AROUND 100-10...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 6:22 PM
The answer to the question I posed in the title of this blog: YES. Longer term bullish technicals still outweigh short term bearish arguments. If you ...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 5:57 PM
The Department of Treasury announced the terms of next week’s debt offering. They will sell $44 billion 2 year notes, $42 billion 5 year notes, $32...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 1:32 PM
f you already locked, you're good. If you haven't, and HAVE seen a reprice for the worse today, you can afford to wait and hope for a not-as-likely t...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 9:18 AM
* MBS opened up as high as 100-10 before 9am, trends still developing
* The 10yr took a nice "baby bounce" off yesterday's low yield as a MAJOR p...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 6:03 PM
Not sure and we really don't want to look too much into this market's "feelings" at the moment. The empty economics calendar, constant babble about Go...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates did improve today, but the Treasury Department will announce the terms of next week's government debt auctions at 11am tomorrow. The Tr...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 3:38 PM
The "rate sheet influential" FN 4.5 MBS coupon is just off its highest prices/lowest yields of the day and one major lender just repriced for the bett...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 1:48 PM
Best possibility remains reprices for the better. Take note of how aggressive the pricing is (or isn't). And if you're looking at something that's a...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 10:38 AM
Activity seems subdued. If I were looking for a reason to believe that chopatility might trigger the above offered reprice targets, I might say a lack...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 5:41 PM
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 4:02 PM
Despite mortgage rates bumping a few basis points higher, I continue to favor locking. Stocks seem like an unstoppable force moving higher plus we hav...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 3:14 PM
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 10:13 AM
The obvious leading candidate for the market's strategic motivation will be CDO contagion and continued stories of misrepresentation and market manipu...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 7:11 PM
The moral of the story is that we've been feeling the liklihood for slightly higher rates at some point this week and the mild movement today from 3.7...
