Fri, Apr 2 2010, 11:23 AM
Fri, Apr 2 2010, 9:22 AM
There's ammo for both bulls and bears in this data. Revisions to previous data add 40,000 more jobs than previously reported. Census workers spend mo...
Fri, Apr 2 2010, 5:42 PM
Mortgage rates had a terrible week! (like pulling a band-aid). The par 30 year fixed mortgage rate rose anywhere from .125 to .375% over the course of...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 12:36 PM
The Treasury Department has announced the terms of next week's auction cycle. In total, $82 billion in notes and bonds will be sold. This will raise a...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 10:05 AM
While the benchmark TSY market is apathetically "so so" today, the scene is not pretty in "rate sheet influential" mortgage-land. The FN 4.5 is -0-10...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 6:19 PM
With the charts relatively boring, here's a quasi-op-ed, quasi-"perspective amidst the chaos" from us to you. If you'd rather skip that, there are s...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 4:30 PM
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be considerably worse than yesterday. The par 30 year conventional rate mor...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 3:10 PM
Fannie 4.5's at 99-29. 10yr Tsy yield at 3.865. Couple bouts of volatility earlier have given way to a narrow range for MBS. 4.5's are well off the lo...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 11:16 AM
The Fannie 4.5 MBS coupon has lost all positive progress that was picked up following a much weaker than forecast ADP print at 815am. The FN 4.5 is cu...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 9:39 AM
Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Goods producing businesses are still the weakest ...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 4:43 PM
I discussed a few technical levels last night. Specifically, that 100-16, 100-10, and 100-07 were good levels to keep an eye on. That call turned ou...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 4:14 PM
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals did indicate lender rate sheets to be improved this morning, however several lenders repriced for the worse...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 1:38 PM
Mortgage market participants must now face the reality of a life without the supportive, flow balancing, volatility calming bid of the Federal Reserve...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 10:36 AM
With Consumer Confidence out, the bleeding in bonds seems to have stopped for the moment. A bit of a paradox at first glance since the data beat expe...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 9:33 AM
Using your microscope, you might be able to see the hint of a top forming on the treasury yield chart. hopefully, that materializes, which would help...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 6:36 PM
Major lock decisions deal more with Friday than anything. From there, anything you know you're going to lock before NFP, the closer MBS are to 100-16...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 6:27 PM
I favor locking over floating at this point. There are just too many unknowns to deal with in the near term. The Fed stops buying MBS tomorrow, more ...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 3:03 PM
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 12:28 PM
Plain and Simple: the long end of the yield curve is the biggest loser today. This is most likely a function of low trading volume and a thinly att...
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 11:20 AM
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be improved from Friday. If you can lock at 4.75%, there is no question, yo...
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 10:07 AM
10s must break 3.85% and re-enter the 3.57 to 3.85% range for us to see further positive rebound rally progress. Still watching and waiting...
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 6:49 PM
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 3:37 PM
We're hearing quite a few questions about census jobs distorting Friday's NFP number. Here's the thing though... If we already know that temporary c...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 12:40 PM
I have nothing but good news for mortgages. "Rate sheet influential" MBS prices are higher, current coupon yield spreads are tighter, and REPRICES FOR...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 9:56 AM
It was encouraging to see overnight bargain buying again, especially after three terrible turnouts from indirect bidders at this week's round of Treas...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 4:32 PM
Bonds are still more likely to move over 3.85 in the longer term, but there is enough room for the possibility that we could catch a break in the shor...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 4:20 PM
If you can lock in today at 4.875% with acceptable fees, you should strongly consider locking. If your lender is offering 5.00% or higher, I feel it ...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 2:19 PM
Strength in treasuries and consequently MBS today has led to widespread reprices for the better. But if we get a 3pm mark around 3.85, it could lead ...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 12:31 PM
he bond market is losing steam ahead of the 1pm bid cut off for $32 billion 7 year notes. The 10 year Treasury note is trading at 3.89%. This pushed t...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 10:19 AM
Yesterday was brutal. The long end of the rates market got caught with its pants down. Short swap positions in the long end of the curve capitulated,...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 7:09 PM
If we forget that MBS lost about a point yesterday and that treasuries rose more than 10bps in yield, today is mild by comparison. MBS were unchanged...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 7:04 PM
Yesterday was either the beginning of rates moving higher or just a temporary correction. If your lender is still offering the same rate they were off...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 2:47 PM
It's been one heck of a roller coaster watching the various levels of 10yr yields on a tick by tick view. Things looked quite bad for a time when the...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 1:23 PM
The auction did not go well. Not a huge surprise given the events that unfolded yesterday. Rates are higher after the auction. Between then and now, n...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 12:39 PM
Ahead of the 5 year note auction...the 2 year and 5 year TSY note yield are both trading at two month highs.The 10 year TSY note is at a one month yie...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 11:12 AM
Reuters polled primary dealers on their outlook for interest rates over the next three, six, and twelve months. 6 of 30 dealers think the 10 year note...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 10:50 AM
After two days of a boring, low volume driven sideways tight range trading, rates volume has skyrocketed into this sell off with the majority of sell ...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 8:54 AM
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 5:53 PM
Benchmark interest rates started rising early in the trading session, before MBS trading officially opened at 8am. Positive Durable Goods Orders data ...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 4:22 PM
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 2:43 PM
MBS have trounced treasuries all day, and especially into the sell-off. That "ledge-ish" sort of section around 100-18 corresponds with a major pivot...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 1:14 PM
REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE IMMINENT after a weak 5 year Treasury note auction.
Tue, Mar 23 2010, 12:59 PM
Tue, Mar 23 2010, 8:38 AM
No need to go too deep into this outlook. Markets have been "coiling" energy, waiting for an influential event that provided direction and justified b...
Tue, Mar 23 2010, 7:25 PM
The moral of today's story is that MBS were wanting to stay under 101-02 yesterday and over it today. Whether prices open higher or lower tomorrow, w...
Tue, Mar 23 2010, 4:55 PM
The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has once again declined to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers .Over the past two days be...
Tue, Mar 23 2010, 4:21 PM
FN 4.5's currently unchanged on the day at 101-02. (4 ticks off highs). Treasuries much worse off with 10yr down 7 ticks, pushing yield up to 3.69. C...
Tue, Mar 23 2010, 2:33 PM
Mon, Mar 22 2010, 12:00 PM
Coiling represents "waiting for guidance" in the marketplace. This fits in well with the financial atmosphere today. There is a lack of meaningful dat...
Mon, Mar 22 2010, 8:59 AM
The econ calendar is essentially empty today, this allows bond traders to price in auction supply concessions to the yield curve whenever the stock le...
