Thu, May 9 2019, 4:44 PM
It's been an interesting week so far with trade war developments taking bonds in an unexpected direction unexpectedly quickly and MBS underperforming ...
Thu, May 9 2019, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower on average today with some lenders flat and others distinctly lower. The discrepancy is due to the timing of y...
Thu, May 9 2019, 9:13 AM
In the day just past, bond markets put in their first losing session after 3 straight business days moving in a friendlier direction. Chalk that up t...
Wed, May 8 2019, 5:24 PM
First thing in the morning, it looked like we had a chance to see another trade-war-driven bond rally. A Reuters story that detailed the US/China com...
Wed, May 8 2019, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in decent shape after more trade war drama courtesy of a Reuters story overnight. In general, trade war drama pushes stoc...
Wed, May 8 2019, 9:07 AM
In the day just passed, bonds continued to rally as more details about recent trade war drama unfolded. Actually, those details unfolded late Monday ...
Tue, May 7 2019, 6:15 PM
For the second straight day, US/China trade relation uncertainty dominated financial markets. Volume was up across the board with Treasury yields and...
Tue, May 7 2019, 5:53 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, if at all. This is confounding to all those who have watched rates against the backdrop of 10yr Treasury yields...
Tue, May 7 2019, 8:53 AM
In the day just past, a weekend Trump tweet announcing increased tariffs on China sent bond yields and stock prices much lower. Both bounced back thr...
Mon, May 6 2019, 5:13 PM
Today represented a classic example of the old market adage "buy the rumor, sell the news." It also offered two different takes on that strategy fr...
Mon, May 6 2019, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably this morning as financial markets opened sharply changed from Friday's latest levels thanks to Trump trade tweets ov...
Mon, May 6 2019, 8:59 AM
The week begins with bonds trading in much stronger territory thanks to a surprise US/China trade announcement from Trump over the weekend. This cha...
Fri, May 3 2019, 5:28 PM
Bond traders can book profits on bond purchases by selling, or on bond sales by buying. Today was characterized by the latter.
Logically, traders...
Fri, May 3 2019, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates were flat today, which is a victory considering the big jobs report was stronger than expected. Typically, labor market strength--espec...
Fri, May 3 2019, 8:22 AM
In the day just past, bonds sold off due to what appears to be market dissatisfaction with a hawkish message from the Fed. This largely came courtesy...
Thu, May 2 2019, 5:38 PM
Treasuries weakened today as traders continued to price out a friendly Fed. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case after yesterday's Fed Ann...
Thu, May 2 2019, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, but the average lender is quoting microscopically higher rates, if anything. Week-over-week, it wouldn't be unf...
Thu, May 2 2019, 10:31 AM
2.50% has been more than just a reasonably round number marking the midpoint between 2.0% and 3.0% as far as 10yr Treasury yields are concerned. Actu...
Wed, May 1 2019, 5:02 PM
The overnight session was very quiet for bonds with most major markets closed for various holidays. The first meaningful movement followed the ISM Ma...
Wed, May 1 2019, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates finally moved in a direction that wasn't "up" today. That said, it's debatable whether the direction would be best described as "lower"...
Wed, May 1 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market remains strong but and that g...
Wed, May 1 2019, 9:04 AM
Although the 10am ISM Manufacturing Report can definitely have an impact on bonds today, The 2pm FED Announcement at 2:30pm press conference is th...
Tue, Apr 30 2019, 5:49 PM
Open up MBS Live today and you'll be greeted with plenty of reassuring green numbers and positive reprice notifications. Unfortunately, those repri...
Tue, Apr 30 2019, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates moved up again today, despite modest improvement in the bond market (which typically coincides with lower rates). Part of the reason fo...
Tue, Apr 30 2019, 11:03 AM
The yield curve--technically a reference to the full spectrum of Treasury yields versus duration/maturities (i.e. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 30 years), but often...
Mon, Apr 29 2019, 5:58 PM
Friday was pretty great for bond markets. It was a solid day of gains at the end of a week where we'd already had two other solid days of gains. A...
Mon, Apr 29 2019, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates moved up today, but at a fairly tame pace in the bigger picture. The rest of the week, however, may not be as tame. There are multiple ...
Mon, Apr 29 2019, 9:55 AM
This is a very big weak in terms of economic data and its relationship with bond market trading levels. In a nutshell, yields dropped sharply into a ...
Fri, Apr 26 2019, 7:09 PM
Mortgage rates improved again today, keeping the week-over-week move decidedly friendly. For more on the weekly move, see the in-depth discussion in y...
Fri, Apr 26 2019, 11:44 AM
GDP was hotly anticipated this week and rightfully so. The trading reaction has been the week's most volatile and has carried the most volume. Parad...
Thu, Apr 25 2019, 5:05 PM
The bond market took a pass today as traders generally let supply considerations and positioning rule the day. Supply considerations came courtesy of...
Thu, Apr 25 2019, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady today with the average lender unchanged to just slightly higher on the day. That's fairly good news considering yest...
Thu, Apr 25 2019, 10:35 AM
Here's a quick recap of the past year or so. Bond yields were near long-term highs in the first part of 2018 following the passage of the tax bill ...
Wed, Apr 24 2019, 5:15 PM
Here come those "global growth concerns" again! It's nothing too huge or scandalous, but today's scorecard offered several anecdotes that fueled a do...
Wed, Apr 24 2019, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower at their best pace in several weeks today, with the average lender making it back to levels not seen since April 12th. The ...
Wed, Apr 24 2019, 9:19 AM
We can go years at a time without so much as a mention of Australia--at least not as it relates to the global economy. But now for the 2nd time in as...
Tue, Apr 23 2019, 4:13 PM
With each passing day this week, we're reminded that the most important events are yet to come. In fact, we may well be looking at only one significa...
Tue, Apr 23 2019, 3:42 PM
When bonds make "gains," it means that bond prices are moving up. The price of a bond is like the amount that a lender is willing to pay for the right...
Tue, Apr 23 2019, 9:41 AM
Oil is one of the most fundamental economic inputs when it comes to determining costs and thus inflation. Inflation is one of the most fundamental in...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 5:43 PM
There's age old market wisdom that loosely suggests any given move should be taken more seriously if there's a lot of volume behind it. Deductively, ...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates were higher again on Monday, but just barely. The average lender was still in worse shape on Tuesday or Wednesday of last week when rat...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 9:48 AM
Are we or are we not headed toward a global economic contraction in mid-to-late 2019? Or are such things on hold for another year or two? Inquiring ...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 2:31 PM
Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days. With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'ca...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 2:06 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been moving higher since March 28th after they bottomed out at the lowest levels in well over a year. At the time, inves...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 10:10 AM
Despite the presence of a big economic report like Retail Sales (which came out much higher than expected) or the unique event risk presented by the B...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 5:06 PM
As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expec...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher for the 5th day in a row today. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly one month. At issue: a...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 9:06 AM
Over the years, there have been more times than I can count where the financial media has mistakenly assigned some significance to news or events in C...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 5:11 PM
Rates were flat to start the overnight session and didn't bat an eyelash at initial strength in equities markets during Asia-only trading hours. Thin...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates rose again today, albeit at a slightly slower clip compared to yesterday. Still, that's little consolidation considering this is the 4t...
