Thu, Mar 21 2019, 6:23 PM
Apparently it took the 9:30am NYSE opening bell ringer for stocks to truly realize what just happened. The Fed announcement on Wednesday was their wa...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 5:13 PM
Granted, we're not back to the sub-4% mortgage rates that dominated much of the past 8 years, but breaking into the high 3% range is a valid considera...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 10:27 AM
In case you missed yesterday, it was a doozy. Here are a few links that would help you get caught up:
Here's Why Bonds Loved The Fed (And It's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 6:00 PM
You may see news stories about the Fed shifting its rate hike outlook (conveyed in a dot plot often referred to as "the dots") to "zero hikes in 2019,...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates broke a week-long streak of silence today following a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. Even before today's Fed announcemen...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 2:09 PM
Below are the differences in the first paragraph of the current Fed statement as compared to the previous version from January 30th, 2019. There were...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 8:45 AM
Today's only key event will be the Fed Announcement , which is actually 3 events in 1. At 2pm, we'll get the policy announcement itself as well as t...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 4:17 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit d...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 3:48 PM
Mortgage rates were flat for the 4th day in a row today in a sign that investors have largely taken their seats for tomorrow's big show. The Fed will ...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 9:36 AM
Rates staged an impressive rally in November and December before bottoming out on the first trading day of 2019. The bounce was fairly abrupt at th...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 5:02 PM
For the bond market St Paddy's day was a 2 week celebration of "green" (as in the color of price gains or falling yields on trading terminals) beginni...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates didn't budge today--a logical result with no signs of life in underlying bond markets. In the current case, this is just fine with us c...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 9:18 AM
This week's economic calendar is exceptionally light, with no true top-tier reports. Even the 2nd-tier data is limited with Philly Fed on Thursday an...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 7:39 PM
Uncertainty has reigned supreme for much of 2019 as traders weigh shifting economic data, potential data inconsistencies (due the shutdown), trade pol...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates remained at recent lows today, as underlying bond markets strengthened. For US Treasuries, this brought rates to new multi-month lows. ...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 9:22 AM
People who write articles every day love holidays and other dates that offer some reprieve from the need to be creative when it comes to writing headl...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 5:14 PM
In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st quarter...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, despite moderate weakness in underlying bond markets. This occurred for two reasons. First, yesterday saw bond marke...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 9:56 AM
Top line, bottom line: Brexit is a big deal. Without the Brexit referendum in mid-2016, US bond yields never would have revisited all-time lows. It'...
Wed, Mar 13 2019, 5:05 PM
For the most part, today was marked by the same sort of resilience seen on several recent occasions where bond yields have either held steady or fall...
Wed, Mar 13 2019, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates were officially lower today, despite some weakness in the bond market. In general, bond market weakness coincides with rates moving hig...
Wed, Mar 13 2019, 9:52 AM
Yesterday saw bonds tag their best levels since early January (Jan 3rd was the only day in over a year where yields closed any lower) on a combination...
Tue, Mar 12 2019, 4:18 PM
There were three salient market movers for the bond market today with one of them being a 2-parter.
First up was Brexit news in the overnight sess...
Tue, Mar 12 2019, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates dropped convincingly today, bringing them to new long-term lows. The average lender hasn't offered anything lower for more than a year ...
Tue, Mar 12 2019, 9:48 AM
Just as yesterday's domestic trading hours ended, British Prime Minister Theresa May met with EU leaders to try to tweak the Brexit proposal enough to...
Mon, Mar 11 2019, 4:38 PM
Today brought the Retail Sales report, which was responsible for a fairly big reaction the last time it came out. This time around, the reaction was ...
Mon, Mar 11 2019, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged to begin the week. That means they are staying in line with the lowest levels in more than a year. Only 2 or 3 d...
Mon, Mar 11 2019, 9:48 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this range in early 2019... It was consolidating. Then it broke. Now it's sideways.
Unless you'...
Fri, Mar 8 2019, 4:14 PM
From bumpy ride to smooth sailing: bonds gained more ground this week than they lost during last week's range-breaking sell-off. I firmly believe tha...
Fri, Mar 8 2019, 3:50 PM
Yesterday, we talked about how mortgage rates were actually lower this week, despite some news coverage to the contrary, and how that discrepancy was ...
Fri, Mar 8 2019, 9:35 AM
Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes. In today's case, the fiction is the fairly logical story most traders would write in their minds. That sto...
Thu, Mar 7 2019, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably today, as the underlying bond market benefited from overseas developments. The European Central Bank (ECB) is Europe...
Thu, Mar 7 2019, 4:47 PM
Today was all about the European Central Bank's surprisingly bond-friendly announcement and press conference. Considering markets already expected ...
Thu, Mar 7 2019, 9:25 AM
Bonds have had a good thing going so far in 2019. Various geopolitical uncertainties combined with the prospect of downbeat economic growth in Q1 and...
Wed, Mar 6 2019, 5:01 PM
At first glance, this morning's ADP Employment data may have been cause for bond market concern. It wasn't that the headline was much higher than exp...
Wed, Mar 6 2019, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates improved again today, bringing them back to the lowest levels seen since last Thursday morning. Starting last Wednesday, we saw a fairl...
Wed, Mar 6 2019, 10:31 AM
If you're a frequent reader, you're likely tired of hearing about "the range." Such is life when bonds are range-bound, but that doesn't mean we can'...
Tue, Mar 5 2019, 7:27 PM
The bond market was already in the process of holding ground in the overnight session and domestic trading hours only added to the resilience. It may...
Tue, Mar 5 2019, 4:55 PM
After a pretty rough conclusion last week, yesterday's stability was a welcome change for mortgage rates at the start of the new week. Today made thin...
Tue, Mar 5 2019, 9:10 AM
It may seem a bit counter-intuitive to be talking up economic data in light of last week's bond sell-off. Friday saw weaker-than-expected consumer sp...
Mon, Mar 4 2019, 4:14 PM
As we watched bond markets sell-off abruptly last week, the best case scenario would have been that the selling was overdone and that we would soon be...
Mon, Mar 4 2019, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates finally caught their breath today after rising quickly in the second half of last week. Specifically, the average lender managed to avo...
Mon, Mar 4 2019, 9:22 AM
2019 had been (and perhaps continues to be) dominated by an increasingly narrow range. To appreciate just how narrow things have been, consider the m...
Fri, Mar 1 2019, 5:04 PM
Heading into today, if you were hoping to see rates move lower, it would have made sense to hope for economic data to come in weaker than expected. T...
Fri, Mar 1 2019, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates surged again today as the underlying bond market continued to capitulate to selling pressure. Let's talk about what that means in plain...
Fri, Mar 1 2019, 9:26 AM
The long-standing consolidation range in 10yr Treasury yields finally came under serious attack yesterday, with a big breakout to the upside. Any tim...
Thu, Feb 28 2019, 7:14 PM
GDP doesn't usually move markets as clearly as it did today, but today was a bit of an anomaly. First off, we'd been waiting for this revision longer...
Thu, Feb 28 2019, 6:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved quickly higher today following stronger-than-expected economic data. Rates are driven by the bond market. Bonds are safe-haven as...
Thu, Feb 28 2019, 9:53 AM
As many of you are likely tired of hearing, bonds have been locked in an increasingly narrow trading range for weeks. The bounces at the boundaries h...
Wed, Feb 27 2019, 5:54 PM
At one point today, there were three apparently important events dominating the newswires simultaneously. These included the Fed Chair's congressional...
