Thu, Aug 22 2019, 8:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that ...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 5:33 PM
Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fe...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, and it had nothing to do with any of the day's events or news headlines. Quite simply put, the bond market (which d...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" ...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:41 PM
Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory....
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, for the most part. If there was a leaning, it was toward slightly lower rates, but not by a wide enough margin to be...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 8:59 AM
In the day just passed, we considered a rather melodramatic question ("is it over?"), which refers to the general strength in the bond market seen in ...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 5:59 PM
There haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stim...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates mostly held steady today , despite a move higher in broader interest rate indicators like the 10yr Treasury yield. Treasuries and mortg...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off o...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 4:54 PM
Perhaps more than any other day in the past few weeks, today stood as an example of the mortgage market's ability to put up a fight when the time is...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 3:22 PM
Things have been weird enough for mortgage rates recently that we were forced to add a " Temporary Note on Mortgage Rate Inconsistency " to our daily ...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 11:28 AM
10yr yields rallied aggressively yesterday, and for no reason more compelling than a proverbial "snowball rally compounded by technicals and algorithm...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:35 PM
Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today. But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic n...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as the underlying market for mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) actually did a better job of keeping pace with broader bond ma...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 8:37 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets primarily reacted to overseas economic data with many of the reports in Europe coming in flat to weaker. Combine...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 7:00 PM
Living under a rock has a lot of advantages: generally low housing cost, durability, no roof maintenance, and if you're strong enough, you have someth...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 6:31 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged for many lenders today which is utterly and completely shocking given the other market developments that tend to coincid...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 10:50 AM
In the day just passed, bonds sold off by a completely average amount in the context of recent volatility and new trading range. Motivations were abo...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 6:07 PM
Bonds began the day in relatively unchanged territory versus yesterday's close and soon encountered the slightly stronger CPI data (2.2 vs 2.1% for CO...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates were still unchanged for many lenders as of this morning. There were even a few offering slightly lower rates compared to yesterday mor...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 8:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in their second biggest rally day of the past 3 weeks (the crazy ones) and their biggest rally day since yields bott...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 6:00 PM
There were no significant scheduled events in the offing today. Volumes were down sharply in the bond complex as well (less than 50% of recent highs)...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today--a claim that utterly boggles the mind of anyone who thought they understood the relationship b...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 9:30 AM
In the week just passed, bonds began to settle into a range after the sharp move lower in the previous week (driven by flaring trade tensions). This ...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 4:53 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say this week of bond market movement went "out like a lamb," but at the very least, it wasn't nearly as brutal as the firs...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today even though the broader bond market suggested they should have remained flat or higher. In several of this week's pre...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 12:48 PM
It's too late in the morning at this point to refer to this post as a "Day Ahead," so let's change course a bit and simply address the biggest burning...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 5:12 PM
For some reason, yesterday's recap didn't go out. You didn't miss much. I wrote a bit about how I roll out of my high tech cryo-stasis chamber each ...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates were sharply higher today, with the average 30yr fixed rate quote rising by almost an eighth of a percentage point in some cases. A mov...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 10:33 AM
In the day just passed, bonds endured whipsaw volatility of the highest and most frustrating order. Overnight gains were swift and largely defied any...
Wed, Aug 7 2019, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates have had a great week. Although rates are slightly higher today versus yesterday, they're still exceptionally close to the lowest level...
Wed, Aug 7 2019, 10:13 AM
In the day just passed, bonds held their ground after overnight weakness and eventually moved back into positive territory. That happened in spite of...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 6:55 PM
MBS lost 10 ticks today while 10yr Notes gained 1 tick. Times like this are uncommon, but they do happen. The perfect storm required for such things...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 6:03 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since November 2016 late last week and they've proceeded to set a new long-term low each day since then. Today ...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 9:50 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market spent a 3rd straight day collecting treasure. For our purposes, "treasure" refers to the newfound, unexpected...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 4:52 PM
From 2010 on, the point about the interconnectedness of global financial markets has increasingly been driven home. It was a fun time for me, analyt...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates were already in great shape on Friday after having fallen to the lowest levels since November 2016. Rather than draw inspiration from t...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 10:01 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set out to react to the Fed announcement and a slew of important domestic economic data. While all of the above exerte...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:00 PM
To be fair, after rates fall as much as they fell yesterday (let's specify: the rates implied by bond markets, not necessarily actual mortgage rates),...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 7:02 PM
Mortgage rates fell again on Friday as lenders finally saw recent bond market gains stabilize enough to act on. In other words, lenders don't always k...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:31 AM
In the day just passed, bonds successfully stormed the castle, assuming the castle refers to 10yr yields with a "1" in front. At first inspiration ca...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 4:07 PM
The world may never know if today's Trump tweets have anything at all to do with his stance on the Fed's fund rate, but one things for sure: they were...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates fell today, but by how much depends on the lender! This runs contrary to the average news story which contains some reference to rates ...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 9:26 AM
In the day just passed, bonds didn't move a ton in the bigger picture but endured an hour of whipsaw volatility surrounding the Fed announcement and p...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 7:58 PM
The Fed Announcement and press conference may not have left bonds in hugely different territory today, but the 2pm-3pm hour was one of the wildest 60 ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 6:27 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged today, which will come as a surprise to scores of consumers who mistakenly believe the Fed's 0.25% rate cut equat...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 8:54 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in one more day of slow, illiquid summertime trading. Granted, volumes were slightly better than the previous sessi...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 5:09 PM
Today had all the trappings of a return to some semblance of volume and volatility for what has otherwise been sleepy summertime bond trading patterns...
