Fri, Oct 4 2024, 4:45 PM
Who Lied About Jobs Numbers?
Unpleasant day for the bond market with jobs crushing forecasts and being revis...
Fri, Oct 4 2024, 12:04 PM
Today's much-anticipated jobs report ended up coming out much stronger than expected. A stronger result was all but guaranteed to cause carnage (rela...
Fri, Oct 4 2024, 11:32 AM
It is a very simple day for the bond market. There was a ton of anticipation for today's jobs report after the past two iterations raised concerns ab...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 5:14 PM
ISM Makes For Negative NFP Lead-Off
If the bond market has to digest an ISM Services report that is much str...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 4:59 PM
Depending on how tuned in you've been to changes in our daily rate tracking, the news may be getting old at this point. Rates have done almost nothin...
Thu, Oct 3 2024, 9:46 AM
There are some labor market reports that cause some concern about a weaker job market. And while Jobless Claims is often thought to be a leading indi...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Wednesday's Market Movement Raises Stakes for Friday
There are times when the bond market seems not to care ...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after an employment report suggested that Friday's forthcoming Employment Situation (the BIG jobs report) might come...
Wed, Oct 2 2024, 12:00 PM
The Fed's been saying it for several months and the market has been trading it accordingly for just as long: the focus has clearly shifted away from i...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 4:26 PM
Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data
Just 30 minutes before the month's most important ...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 4:04 PM
While the past 5 months have been well-stocked with victories for mortgage rates, the past week and a half brought a bit of a pull back. Most of that...
Tue, Oct 1 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's slate of economic data is certainly higher-profile compared to yesterday with JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing always capable of moving the ...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been moving higher since the Fed cut rates 2 weeks ago. We've discussed and explained that paradox exhaustively and can...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 5:26 PM
Moderate Losses For Bonds as Powell Stays "Hawkish"
In the lexicon of market watching, the Fed is considered...
Mon, Sep 30 2024, 12:21 PM
Momentum has been building and focus has been shifting. After a few years of inflation reports giving the jobs report a run for its money in terms re...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 5:22 PM
Finally Cooling Off Just in Time to Heat Up Again
Much of the past week has been spent monitoring the "post-...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 5:10 PM
'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't ...
Fri, Sep 27 2024, 12:05 PM
Just a few months ago, the big ticket inflation reports were just as relevant as the jobs report in terms of their ability to cause movement in the bo...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 5:14 PM
More Resilient Today, But It's Still All About Data
The bond market is still searching for its identity in t...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 3:25 PM
Because we created the industry's first daily mortgage rate index based on actual lender rate sheets without any subjective distortions, and because t...
Thu, Sep 26 2024, 11:41 AM
At the risk of tempting fate by discussing a leveling-off of the post-Fed correction again, the overnight session saw the most compelling case yet for...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 4:49 PM
Is it Time to Worry About Bond Market Losses?
Ever since Fed day, it seems the bond market only really knows...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in more than a year and a half last Tuesday as the bond market put the finishing touches on its preparation for...
Wed, Sep 25 2024, 11:35 AM
The bond market is in a bit of a lull with any excess buying demand flowing to the shorter end of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the long end has been d...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 4:46 PM
Early Weakness Erased After Labor Market Warning Signs
The first few hours of domestic trading caused some c...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 4:32 PM
The Federal Reserve is far from the only game in town when it comes to exerting influence on interest rates. That's a loaded statement, of course, co...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 10:50 AM
Monday's trading session offered some hope that the post-Fed correction was losing steam, but purely from a technical standpoint. All we really know ...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:57 PM
Post Fed Correction Leveling Off?
Based on the weakness in the bond market this morning, it looked as if the...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly last week after hitting long term lows before the Fed announced its 0.50% rate cut. In not so many words, mortgage rates...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 10:42 AM
We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the ...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 4:20 PM
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatili...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 3:42 PM
Credit where credit is due: the rate market did an outstanding job of getting out in front of the Fed rate cut as well as the changes to the Fed's rat...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 10:32 AM
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week lea...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 4:02 PM
MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries
Few market watchers would have guessed that MBS would have held...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:47 PM
Today's release of Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey took at bad problem and made it worse. Freddie's survey methodology means that today'...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:37 PM
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut
The Fed was either going to cut 0.50% or 0.25% today. It o...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 4:59 PM
We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends a...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 9:31 AM
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it wi...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:39 PM
What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement?
The ongoing disagreement in the market regarding the size of W...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen nearly 2% from last year's peak. Much of that decrease can be viewed as the normal phenomenon of longer term rates getting...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline C...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 4:04 PM
Just Another Day of Waiting
Bonds started stronger, retraced back to 'unchanged' following the manufacturing...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 3:18 PM
The new week began on a relatively quiet note in terms of mortgage rate movement and the underlying bond market. There was modest volatility earlier...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 12:06 PM
So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. ...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 4:16 PM
Fed Week Uncertainty Makes For Logical Consolidation
Bonds rallied sharply just over a month ago following a...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 3:55 PM
We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week. Everything the market can already ...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 10:39 AM
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:34 PM
Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction
Unless Friday's Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in ...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:19 PM
While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates h...
