Wed, Aug 14 2024, 5:06 PM
Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction
Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily b...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 4:35 PM
Today brought the release of important economic data with the power to cause a sharp increase or decrease in mortgage rates. There are a wide variety...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:40 PM
PPI Drives Decent Rally; But CPI Packs a Bigger Punch
This morning's core m/m Producer Price Index hit 0.0% ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:27 PM
If you're just here to keep an eye on daily changes in mortgage rates, today was solid. There was a modest improvement versus yesterday and the avera...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 8:41 AM
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter compone...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:48 PM
Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains
From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light. This i...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Today was completely different than the previous Monday in that it was a normal, boring day with essentially no change in mortgage rates over the week...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 4:44 PM
After starting out at the lowest levels in more than a year on Monday morning, mortgage rates had done nothing but increase through Thursday afternoon...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 3:06 PM
Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal
Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, bu...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 2:50 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for a side-by-side glimpse at our actual daily average 30yr fixed mortgage rate and the weekly survey-based rat...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 10:58 AM
"Crushed" is likely too harsh a term for what we're seeing this morning, but were it not for Monday morning's paradigm stretching reversal, this morni...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:33 PM
Bonds Selling Off Like it Was Always The Plan
Very little transpired during Wednesday's trading session to c...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:18 PM
Yesterday saw one of the largest single day mortgage rate increases in years, although there were more than a few caveats. We discussed those in grea...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 10:33 AM
Coming into this week, the most logical base case was for a moderate correction in the bond market owing to the strong rally last week and the absence...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 4:39 PM
MBS Outperform as Bonds Aggressively Unwind Weekend Rally
There's been no shortage of directional movement o...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 3:40 PM
In and of itself, today was quite awful for mortgage rates with conventional 30yr fixed rates moving up faster than on almost any other day in the pas...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 11:23 AM
Global markets are still recovering from yesterday's wild ride. In general, that has involved gains for stocks and losses in bonds. It's also probabl...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:18 PM
As of Friday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was merely at the lowest levels of 2024. A modest additional drop this morning brought th...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:17 PM
Wild Ride Leaves MBS Weaker After Super Strong Start
Bonds surged to stronger levels overnight amid a global...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 11:33 AM
In the overnight session, the rest of the world decided it was just as concerned about the Fed potentially having waited too long to cut rates as some...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 5:45 PM
The events of this past week serve as an exclamation point in one of the many sentences that tells the story of the big shift away from the generation...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Bonds Rapidly Repricing Reality After Jobs Report
Yes, today was "just one" jobs report. And yes, there are...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 11:16 AM
This is one of those weeks that stands a good chance of being looked back up as the moment where the clouds of indecision parted and true trends were ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 5:02 PM
Rates Taking an Assumptive Lead-Off Ahead of Jobs Report?
Suddenly, something has changed in the bond market...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 4:45 PM
It's official! At this point, you'd need to go all the way back to the end of December 2023 to see a lower average rate for a top tier, conventional ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds were exceptionally sideways in the overnight session with 10yr yields holding between 4.05 and 4.06 for almost the entirety. It wasn't until the...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 5:28 PM
Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell
Opinions certainly vary as to whether today's communication...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 5:11 PM
The Fed didn't cut rates today and rates then moved quickly lower. Naturally, there's more to the story than that, but the paradox is a good reminder...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, moderated, and the unempl...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 8:50 AM
While there is still one market moving economic report left this morning, the first two have been bond friendly with both ADP and the Employment Cost ...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 4:06 PM
Data and Headlines Drive Modest Volatility Ahead of The Fed
There were two different bouts of modest volatil...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates began the day with the average lender quoting just slightly higher rates compared to yesterday's latest levels. By the end of the day,...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 12:28 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) became an occasionally major market mover over the past few years as traders looked for any availab...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 4:14 PM
No Bad News in Today's Treasury Announcement
There have been a few occasions in the past few years where Tre...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 4:00 PM
Although the range has been very narrow for the past few weeks, average mortgage rates nonetheless fell to the lowest levels in more than 6 months. T...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 11:41 AM
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight with some of the improvement seen right at the start of the session and a majority following the start of Eur...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 6:04 PM
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
While today's monthly core PCE headline may have techni...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 5:37 PM
This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to ...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 11:58 AM
After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 3:29 PM
Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range
Today marked an uptick in the importance ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 2:52 PM
Mortgage rates continue moving in very small steps from day to day--something that's been the case since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) more than 2 we...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 11:44 AM
It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful econom...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates technically moved up to the highest levels in 2 weeks today, but that sounds a bit more dramatic than it actually is. Rates have large...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 4:30 PM
Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent?
Bonds began the day in stronger territory and remained stro...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 12:07 PM
While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volati...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 4:23 PM
Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category?
It's easy to throw around general catego...
