Thu, Jan 16 2025, 11:48 AM
While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some
For every 14 or 15 times we approach a potential big-t...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 4:08 PM
We knew that today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a hotly anticipated economic report that at least had the potential to give rates a big push, and ...
Wed, Jan 15 2025, 10:37 AM
On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market t...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:45 PM
Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers
Tuesday featured a much weaker PPI report that fail...
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit the highest levels since May 2024 yesterday, even though the average was almost imperceptibly higher than last Friday's....
Tue, Jan 14 2025, 12:02 PM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing l...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:39 PM
Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness
This week's relevant economic data is concentrated over the Tue-Thu t...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels since May 2024 by the end of last week following a stronger reading on the jobs report. Technically, the sam...
Mon, Jan 13 2025, 10:36 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shi...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn't take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today. The push ...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:48 PM
Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree
Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected and there were n...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 10:16 AM
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate ...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 2:04 PM
No Data, No Volatility
Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy C...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 1:47 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds were on a shortened schedule today due to the federal day of mourning for Jimmy Car...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 11:03 AM
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due ...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 3:29 PM
Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways
Markets seemingly had a lot to get through today between economic data,...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 2:54 PM
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates have moved higher at a modest to moderate pace. Unfortunately, that's been a trend so far in 2025 and it's...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 9:58 AM
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (m...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 4:21 PM
Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months
Bonds reacted logically to this morning's econ data at 10am. ISM...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 3:36 PM
We came into the current week knowing that rates would take cues from any clear cues in this week's economic data. In general, that means higher rate...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 11:54 AM
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's cas...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 4:12 PM
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 3:25 PM
The bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where they left off before the X-mas/New Year ho...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 10:31 AM
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this m...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 5:29 PM
Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
2 weeks ago today, we assumed the bond market would l...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 4:33 PM
The official holiday dates may be in the rearview, but as far as interest rates and underlying bond markets are concerned, this was the last day of th...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 12:24 PM
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak ei...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 4:40 PM
The last time mortgage rates were moving with any sense of urgency was in the days surround the Fed's rate cut on December 18th. Incidentally, that mo...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 4:38 PM
Uneventful Start to 2025
Bonds began the day in moderately stronger territory before losing ground after the...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 10:11 AM
Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minut...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 2:20 PM
Year-End Trading. No Big Deal
Bonds started stronger but lost ground quickly and inexplicably starting aroun...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 1:39 PM
Major holidays typically involve a full day market closure along with an "early close" on an adjacent day. This matters to rates because mortgage len...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 10:01 AM
The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urg...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:56 PM
Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It
Bonds improved somewhat significantly in overn...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:31 PM
Because mortgage rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market, when the market is closed, lenders don't update their rate offerings. As ...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 10:49 AM
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous r...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:57 PM
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Bonds began the day in decent shape by pushing back against weakness ...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, and markets have been very quiet due to the holiday week. So we'll take a quick moment for a retrospective. I...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 9:31 AM
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 4:32 PM
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
The day began as so many days over the past few months with...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading levels in the bond market and bond market activity has been extremely slow, as is normally the case during the Chr...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 9:15 AM
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting rig...
Tue, Dec 24 2024, 10:11 AM
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 4:01 PM
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and continued to sell off ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 3:36 PM
Holidays have inconsistent impacts on mortgage rates because holiday's have inconsistent impacts on the bond market (and rates are dictated by the bon...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 12:30 PM
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:44 PM
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible th...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:11 PM
The week's big story is still the big jump in rates that took place after Wednesday's Fed announcement. And while rates remain noticeably elevated on...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 9:54 AM
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its pri...
