Thu, Dec 13 2018, 9:26 AM
The first 3 days of this week have offered a clear correction/consolidation to the strong rally of the previous month. This had as much to do with ti...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 7:02 PM
Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury ...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 6:24 PM
Mortgage rates rose more noticeably today as a part of a 3 day bounce after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 3 months at the end of last week. Whe...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 10:16 AM
As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we exp...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 5:37 PM
Government shutdowns make good news. When risks of a shutdown flare up (especially with today's sort of political theater) it tends to dominate the...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates rose almost imperceptibly today, with a few lenders not showing any detectable changes from yesterday. Still, it was the first time sin...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 9:19 AM
Consolidation... That's that word we use to refer to sideways and frequently narrower trading ranges that follow a period of more directional movement...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds struggled to find inspiration for the first few hours of the domestic session, but it was soon in ample supply thanks to Brexit-related headline...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 4:57 PM
First things first: the average mortgage lender improved modestly today, compared to last Friday's levels. This leaves mortgage rates at their lowest ...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 8:01 AM
We've had an impressive winning streak recently and have acquired gains worthy of a watchful, protective eye. Will this be a durable rally or a fleet...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 4:23 PM
This morning's trading--both before and after NFP came out--basically acted as additional time for debate . Both MBS and Treasuries bounced quickly,...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates held on to their recent improvements today after the important Employment Situation (the big "jobs report") showed November job creatio...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 8:33 AM
Powell's speech last week at the Economic Club of New York marked the beginning of an official shift. Until then, while the Fed had its dovish dissen...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 5:29 PM
Without discussing what tomorrow may bring for bond markets, we can safely say that today was big. Both in terms volumes and outright trading level...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates dropped significantly yet again today, adding to an already impressive week of improvement and bringing most lenders into their best te...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 9:09 AM
Good times are rolling in the bond market, even if they're rolling much more for Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Nonetheless, MBS will continue to bene...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 5:53 PM
Bonds rallied in a big way today with intraday lows of 2.885% in 10yr yields. There was also a prominent sell-off in stocks, begging the conclusion...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 5:16 PM
Mortgage rates technically hit their lowest levels in exactly 2 months yesterday. Today merely takes them deeper into that territory. The size of the ...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 9:13 AM
The day begins with the December rally gathering steam, or at least maintaining the surprisingly strong levels achieved yesterday afternoon. Yields c...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 5:21 PM
I don't think candlestick patterns can predict the future, but a few of them offer quick and easy ways to convey a certain theme in the market. One o...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates didn't really improve today for the average lender, but they did manage to hit the lowest rates in 2 months on a technicality. The reas...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 8:57 AM
Much like the person on a journey of self-improvement might hear a trite pep talk about today being the first day of the rest of their life, bond mark...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 4:06 PM
In and of itself, today's trading session wasn't anything special. There wasn't much by way of economic data (just Chicago PMI, which fell on deaf ...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 3:02 PM
Mortgage rates may have ebbed slightly higher today, but that only erased a fraction of the improvement seen over the past 2 days. Combined with the e...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 10:05 AM
Relative to the last 2 years of pain for bond markets, a sense of hope has emerged, seemingly overnight. That has to do with the fact that bonds (as ...
Thu, Nov 29 2018, 5:01 PM
There have been two distinct phases to the bond market rally that followed yesterday's speech by Fed Chair Powell. The first was fairly logical in ...
Thu, Nov 29 2018, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates surged lower today, falling at the fastest single-day pace in more than a year. In order to see the average lender offer lower rates, y...
Thu, Nov 29 2018, 9:42 AM
I use the baseball/lead-off analogy quite a bit to refer to a range breakout that occurs before the important event that is most likely to cause a bre...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 4:31 PM
Today was interesting for bond markets in the sense that it certainly FELT like a nice day with solid gains. This has to do with the noticeable ral...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 2:27 PM
Mortgage rates began the day just like they've begun each of the past 5 business days: perfectly unchanged! As we discussed yesterday, the recent abse...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 9:27 AM
This morning's chart looks complicated at first glance, but it's actually very simple. It doesn't even matter if you're familiar with candlestick cha...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 5:54 PM
Volume may be picking up for the bond market following the typically quiet Thanksgiving trading week, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the move...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 4:47 PM
Mortgage rates avoided returning to reality yet again today. In other words, rates were almost perfectly unchanged for the 4th straight business day. ...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 9:33 AM
Oil prices are always interesting to consider when it comes to bond markets. After all, oil is a major cost input for the economy. Even the "core" i...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 4:39 PM
Most of today's bond market movement followed a single trade in the morning hours. Someone with deep pockets bought a lot of 2yr Treasury debt and ...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates began the post-holiday week by holding the same sideways posture seen last week during the slow market days surrounding Thanksgiving. G...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 9:14 AM
Markets will be getting back into the swing of things (probably slowly) today after the Thanksgiving holiday. As we discussed excessively last week, ...
Fri, Nov 23 2018, 2:59 PM
Mortgage rates were every bit as flat as expected today. That's a good thing at the moment, considering we're holding in line with the lowest levels i...
Fri, Nov 23 2018, 9:11 AM
I could go on and on about why it makes so very little sense for today to be a business day and for Thursday to be the official Thanksgiving holiday...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 5:46 PM
Bond markets have a habit of getting progressively more quiet heading into Thanksgiving. It's not the kind of thing you should bank on from a strat...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 4:55 PM
Mortgage rates were almost perfectly flat today, and have been largely unchanged since last Friday. If you were forced to predict such a thing at the ...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 9:22 AM
I used to be annoyed by the word "consolidation." It was on a short-list of market jargon words that were overused and possibly nebulous. But over t...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 6:24 PM
We've had a pretty good run recently where bond yields have been willing to at least move in the same direction at the same time during sharper stock ...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 5:21 PM
Mortgage rates managed to maintain their lowest levels in more than a month yet again today. All this despite modest losses in underlying bond markets...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 9:36 AM
Despite a fairly perfect bounce yesterday, the trend-lines acting as floors in stocks and bonds have given way overnight, even if only in somewhat u...
Mon, Nov 19 2018, 6:04 PM
Builder Confidence doesn't typically move markets, but today it did. For the past several month's, the NAHB's Housing Market Index (generally consider...
Mon, Nov 19 2018, 4:55 PM
Mortgage rates unexpectedly dropped to their lowest levels in more than a month as of last Friday. That assertion is at odds with quite a few media re...
Mon, Nov 19 2018, 9:12 AM
Happy Thanksgiving week. These can go a few different ways for bond markets with 2 main varieties standing out. Both varieties are the product of il...
Fri, Nov 16 2018, 7:24 PM
We haven't heard much out of new Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida since he accepted the position, but what we heard today was good. Well, at least the ...
Fri, Nov 16 2018, 6:19 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels of THE month yesterday, and the lowest levels in A month today. It's a bit of a technicality, really. As of yes...
