Wed, Mar 21 2018, 9:28 AM
This is a quick guide designed to help you approach this afternoon's Fed events in a logical and useful way.
What's Happening Today and When?
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Tue, Mar 20 2018, 5:04 PM
Imagine you manage a baseball team. Let's say it's little league , because what follows probably wouldn't happen in the bigs. You're working with y...
Tue, Mar 20 2018, 3:30 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels in more than a week today, but that's the most dramatic way to put it. In terms of outright movement, today ...
Tue, Mar 20 2018, 9:50 AM
While there have been a few pockets of decent gains in the past week (Thursday afternoon and yesterday morning), the general trend has been toward wea...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 4:44 PM
Bonds entered the domestic session feeling a bit down on their luck. There was some general weakness early in the overnight session, but just before ...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates have been on a tear recently , moving sideways with reckless abandon. Since the middle of February, the "effective rate" (based on actu...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 9:15 AM
If it weren't for the Fed Announcement on Wednesday, this would look like a prime vacation week for market participants as there is a distinct lack ...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 5:36 PM
There were quite a few economic reports on tap today, and that made for some entertaining market watching! Reason being, every time a report came out...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 5:12 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly today, but many lenders were essentially unchanged compared to yesterday's latest offerings. Moreover, rates ended the we...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 9:45 AM
I was pretty happy to have made it through yesterday without seeing or writing any "Ides of March" headlines. I can't ever quite remember what the wo...
Thu, Mar 15 2018, 4:42 PM
Today is most easily discussed based on what it wasn't.
Today wasn't a big selling day. That's nice to see-- especially in 2018, and especi...
Thu, Mar 15 2018, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today as political headlines helped to offset some initial weakness in bond markets. When bonds weaken, rates tend to move ...
Thu, Mar 15 2018, 9:41 AM
You may have noticed that, as of February 22nd, bonds haven't been experiencing the same sort of pain that characterized the first month and a half of...
Wed, Mar 14 2018, 4:41 PM
We've seen plenty of instances of bond markets shrugging off clear suggestions in the economic data, but today wasn't one of them! Retail Sales and...
Wed, Mar 14 2018, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today as several economic updates painted a slightly gloomier picture. In general, weaker economic data coincides with lower...
Wed, Mar 14 2018, 9:52 AM
The first month and a half of 2018 was fairly brutal for bond markets. Metaphorically speaking, it was like retreating from their home across a field...
Tue, Mar 13 2018, 4:56 PM
Bond markets moved to their best levels in more than a week on a combination of tame inflation data and Trump's unexpected announcement of Rex Till...
Tue, Mar 13 2018, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates fell today following a tame read on inflation as well as the announcement of Rex Tillerson's departure from the White House. The Consum...
Tue, Mar 13 2018, 8:30 AM
Since at least the middle of 2017, the Consumer Price Index has been in the driver's seat as far as economic data that matters to bonds. This likely ...
Mon, Mar 12 2018, 5:23 PM
Bond markets were slightly weaker to start the session, but soon found some support from a European bond market rally. Even after the European close...
Mon, Mar 12 2018, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates spent the entirety of last week at the same levels based on end-of-day rates sheets from the average lender. That was a tremendously un...
Mon, Mar 12 2018, 9:34 AM
Thanks to February's lower day count throwing off the normal cadence of Treasury auctions, bond markets will have to take down 3 auctions in the first...
Fri, Mar 9 2018, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates must really like being where they are right now, because they've been at roughly the same levels for the past 5 days! Not only is this ...
Fri, Mar 9 2018, 8:29 AM
Beliefs, expectations, and assertions can be tricky business if they're not backed up by hard data. No other economic report brings as many armchair ...
Thu, Mar 8 2018, 6:35 PM
The ECB released a policy announcement this morning. They weren't expected to make any significant changes and indeed they made none. Well, to be ...
Thu, Mar 8 2018, 5:46 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged for the 3rd day in a row today despite a fair amount of movement in underlying bond markets. Rates reacted to ...
Thu, Mar 8 2018, 9:11 AM
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's press conference (which follows the scheduled ECB policy announcement) could set the tone for bon...
Wed, Mar 7 2018, 4:41 PM
The resignation of White House Economic Advisor Gary Cohn thew markets a curveball when it was announced after the close of business yesterday. Cur...
Wed, Mar 7 2018, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates stayed fairly close to yesterday's levels as underlying bond markets experienced some volatility throughout the course of the day. If m...
Wed, Mar 7 2018, 9:48 AM
At the close of business yesterday, the bond market outlook was decidedly negative. We're not talking about a colossal shift in sentiment, mind you, ...
Tue, Mar 6 2018, 6:59 PM
It may or may not actually be shocking to learn that White House economic advisor Cohn has resigned , but it certainly wasn't a given. Cohn had prev...
Tue, Mar 6 2018, 5:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today, but not because of anything that happened today. Rather, it was yesterday's bond market weakness that did the...
Tue, Mar 6 2018, 9:19 AM
If you've ever invested or even thought about investing, you likely have a magic number when it comes to the rate of return that would motivate you to...
Mon, Mar 5 2018, 5:48 PM
Bonds were moderately stronger in the overnight session thanks to European political uncertainty, among other things. One of those "other things" c...
Mon, Mar 5 2018, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates ended higher today, after financial markets reacted to developments in last week's tariff-related news. Last Thursday, stock prices and...
Mon, Mar 5 2018, 9:22 AM
The good news is that bond markets improved--albeit microscopically--during each of the past 3 weeks. That's significant because before that 3-week...
Fri, Mar 2 2018, 7:43 PM
If only it were October! The costume contest at the annual bond trader Halloween bash would be easy to win with that "2.79%" costume in the back of...
Fri, Mar 2 2018, 7:07 PM
Mortgage rates snapped back toward recent highs today. Part of this has to do with how well rates have done over the past 3 weeks. Granted, rates have...
Fri, Mar 2 2018, 9:25 AM
If 2018 is a football game for bond markets, this week's trading through yesterday afternoon represented our first touchdown (let's not talk about how...
Thu, Mar 1 2018, 6:14 PM
The title is a play on words, you see? It utilizes the word "tariff," which was the subject of much discussion and market movement today, in designat...
Thu, Mar 1 2018, 5:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today--somewhat significantly relative to recent examples--ultimately hitting the best levels in more than a week for most ...
Thu, Mar 1 2018, 9:26 AM
This is currently the best week of the year for bond markets. The same was true of last week in the sense that it was the first time in 2018 that yie...
Wed, Feb 28 2018, 4:15 PM
2.90% or something close to it continues to look like the center of a range of yields that might like to... think about... maybe... potentially... try...
Wed, Feb 28 2018, 3:55 PM
After moving back up to the highest levels in more than 4 years yesterday, mortgage rates fell slightly today. Pessimists/realists would rightfully po...
Wed, Feb 28 2018, 8:43 AM
You may have noticed that things have been a bit different recently for rates/bonds. Whereas almost any given day saw a move higher/weaker so far in ...
Tue, Feb 27 2018, 5:09 PM
Way back in 2014, Yellen gave her inaugural semi-annual congressional testimony on March 19th. When asked what the Fed meant by "considerable time" w...
Tue, Feb 27 2018, 4:38 PM
It was a good run for mortgage rates , relative to the rest of 2018, but after spending 3 days in a row with mild-to-moderate improvements, rates quic...
Tue, Feb 27 2018, 10:02 AM
Today's key event will be the fielding of questions by Fed Chair Powell at the semi-annual congressional testimony. Sometimes known as the Humphrey H...
Mon, Feb 26 2018, 6:52 PM
Mortgage rates fell for the third day in a row--the first time that's happened so far in 2018! Much like last week was slightly less spectacular than ...
Mon, Feb 26 2018, 6:52 PM
In this morning's Day Ahead, we discussed an hour-by-hour chart of several technical overlays for rates. The thesis was that this most recent rally (...
