Mon, May 7 2018, 4:36 PM
This happens from time to time on Mondays. Either due to a holiday overseas or some other distraction, a data-free Monday ends up being a complete du...
Mon, May 7 2018, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates have been exceptionally sideways for nearly 2 weeks now--this after hitting the highest levels in more than 4 years on April 25th. As a...
Mon, May 7 2018, 9:33 AM
Longer-term rates have been in a bit of a holding pattern after deciding not to smash through the highest levels in more than 4 years at the end of Ap...
Fri, May 4 2018, 7:02 PM
After the week's biggest dose of intraday volatility this morning, rates ended up almost perfectly unchanged. Charts suggest an uncommonly high amo...
Fri, May 4 2018, 6:38 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways today, on average, but only after the dust settled on some morning volatility. The big jobs report was released at 8:30am...
Fri, May 4 2018, 9:46 AM
With modest gains intact this morning (even after NFP), we're finally in a position to say that all hope may not officially be lost for bonds. That w...
Thu, May 3 2018, 4:38 PM
With the 2.95% level in 10yr yields being the most important pivot point for bonds at the moment, drifting sideways to close out the day around 2.94...
Thu, May 3 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back today--that is, they bounced back DOWN after rising slightly yesterday. The improvement came courtesy of strength in Europ...
Thu, May 3 2018, 8:54 AM
There has been at least some amount of correlation between stocks and bond yields in 2018 inasmuch as the major lows for stocks in Feb and April coi...
Wed, May 2 2018, 4:27 PM
We'll give Friday a pass because it was technically still part of the 2-day correction leading back from the 4-year highs in the 10yr Treasury yield s...
Wed, May 2 2018, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. The average lender was quoting the same rates as yesterday, but with sligh...
Wed, May 2 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and t...
Wed, May 2 2018, 9:09 AM
There's a fair amount on the calendar today from an objective standpoint. The 3 headliners are ADP Employment, the Treasury refunding announcement an...
Tue, May 1 2018, 5:10 PM
The Day Ahead discussed the year's previous closing high of 2.95% in 10yr yields. It hadn't come into play too terribly much until the past 3 session...
Tue, May 1 2018, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher on average today, although a few lenders were better characterized as "unchanged." In either case, if you're shopping for ...
Tue, May 1 2018, 9:13 AM
2.95% was the closing high for 10yr yields back in late February. While we saw 10s move as low as 2.935 yesterday, that seemed to be a product of mon...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 4:36 PM
April was a bummer of a month for the bond market. Actually, it was decent through the 11th, but it got ugly quickly after that--especially during th...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 3:48 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today , which keeps them right in line with last week's lowest levels. That sounds pretty good! Unfortunately, any tim...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 9:42 AM
This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today's month-end trading process, it makes for a...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 6:53 PM
Bonds managed to scratch out a 2nd day of "recovery" leading back from the highest yields in more than 4 years seen on Wednesday. If you don't want t...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 6:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today , bringing them back in line with Monday's levels for the average lender. That said, rate sheets have been very...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 9:19 AM
The abrupt sell-off that began on 4/18 has been a bit frustrating from an analytical standpoint due to an absence of clearly-delineated motivations. ...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 5:00 PM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that we were likely to see a token bounce on one of the next 3 days, but that it didn't necessarily guarantee furt...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates caught a break today , as underlying bond markets made it back into Tuesday's territory. Refreshingly, lenders were willing to set rate...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 10:07 AM
Today is shaping up to be the first push back against the current selling trend. By current, I mean the sharper, shorter trend of the past 7 days a...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 4:32 PM
The recent rate drama continues unabated. Today was the 6th day of heavy selling in bond markets, bringing yields within striking distance of the 2...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates had another rough day as they continued moving up into new 4-year highs. Unlike the extremely mild and uneventful day-to-day changes se...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 9:33 AM
It will come as no surprise that I feel the level of discussion about 10yr yields being at 3% is overdone at best, and misguided at worst. Actually, ...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 4:56 PM
After yesterday's somewhat hopeful leveling-off in bond yields, today served to drive home the point that hope is futile and only bad things are goi...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved somewhat higher again today, thus pushing them farther into the highest levels in more than 4 years. This isn't the result of any...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 10:25 AM
You won't be able to avoid "3% 10yr Treasury Yields" this week. For starters, 10's have already hit 3.0033% today, but simply being close seems to ha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 5:16 PM
Have you ever seen someone randomly do something fairly awful/hurtful/aggressive, offer no explanation or apology, and then just leave the scene? Tha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved markedly higher today, officially leaving them at new 4-year highs. The only other time they've earned that distinction this year...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 9:03 AM
I'm going to be surly this week about the way the bond market is covered in the financial media. Many of the articles to which I take exception will ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 5:14 PM
10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 2:18 PM
Let's clear one thing up before we begin. Freddie Mac, MBA, and Ellie Mae all noted new 4-year highs in mortgage rates this week. They are all technic...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 9:20 AM
Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime conso...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 5:03 PM
The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday, yiel...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates jumped higher today as bonds continued a move away from narrow Springtime range seen in March and early April. Bonds dictate rate movem...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 9:51 AM
We've been increasingly wary about a potential break of the recent consolidation/rally trend --the one that saw yields move sideways to slightly stro...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an inter...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as bond markets continued a mildly weaker trend for the month of April. Bonds (which underlie rates) are under press...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 9:31 AM
The term "earnings season" gets thrown around quite a bit in financial news, but what is it, exactly? Simply put, it's a period of several weeks each...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 4:47 PM
With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks ...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates had a calm day. Lenders who had offered improved rate sheets yesterday afternoon didn't see much reason to drop rates any further today...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 10:16 AM
Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as t...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 5:20 PM
Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. T...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at higher levels, as bond markets lost ground overnight. Bonds dictate rates, and "losing ground" means bond prices are f...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 10:10 AM
Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 8:33 PM
Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's ...
