Mon, Jan 8 2018, 10:20 AM
Not to be confused with the consolidative trend seen in Q4, 2017, there's been a slightly more negative consolidation underway in the last few weeks. ...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 5:33 PM
Harker and the curve... It's not a song or a morning radio show.
It's a reference to the Fed's Patrick Harker commenting on the yield curve toda...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 5:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower following a weaker-than-expected jobs report. The so-called "jobs report" (officially "The Employment Situation") is--on av...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 9:37 AM
I had my doubts at times, after some of this week's volatility. I thought perhaps that bonds were showing signs that the "new year momentum" (a notic...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 4:44 PM
The overnight session and early morning hours saw a good, old-fashioned economic-data-driven sell-off in bond markets. Asian and European data were...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 3:46 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today , following stronger economic data at home and abroad. In general, stronger economic data implies better growth, hig...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 9:42 AM
If you happen to read and retain most of what I write, you'll have noticed that toward the end of December, I increasingly mentioned that it wouldn't ...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 4:56 PM
Bond markets improved overnight, but were under pressure in the morning after stronger ISM Manufacturing data and then again following the release o...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. Merely holding steady is a victory today. Reason being: bond markets (...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 9:37 AM
Today brings the first significant economic data of the new year in the form of ISM Manufacturing at 10am. During times when markets are actively res...
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 5:43 PM
Bond markets have had worse days , but the average day is definitely better than today. 10yr yields moved more than 5bps higher, bringing them to 2....
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates are theoretically supposed to go higher in 2018. Any upward pressure on economic growth or inflation (courtesy of the tax bill, perhaps...
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 8:42 AM
New Years Day doesn't always fall on a day that allows for a 3.5-day weekend. When it does (as it did this year), the first day back to work tends to...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 3:58 PM
There were no significant economic reports today, no major headlines, and no other events that prompted movement in bond markets. As is often the cas...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 3:38 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, keeping them at the same stronger levels achieved on Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday's gains were much-neede...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 9:35 AM
Markets will close early today (2pm ET for bonds), but most of 2017's trading needs have long since been handled for most traders. Case in point, th...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 6:01 PM
Bond markets sent a fairly clear message today: don't expect much tomorrow. Trading activity is dying down in the same sort of way it did last Thur...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates were broadly unchanged today, despite negative cues from underlying bond markets. In other words, the bonds that account for most mortg...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 9:27 AM
With yesterday's big rally out of the way (a correction to a correction in the yield curve, as discussed in yesterday's close), the most logical impli...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 5:44 PM
Last Tuesday was not my favorite kind of day when it comes to discussing reasons for bond market movement. The tax bill was in the process of being pa...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 3:38 PM
Mortgage rates had a bad week last week, quickly rising to the highest levels in months. To make matters more frustrating, there weren't any clearly-d...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 9:13 AM
The National Association of Realtors publishes reports for both Pending and Existing Home Sales. The conventional wisdom is that Pending Sales tend t...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 5:41 PM
Bond markets got off to a seasonally typical start this week with volumes and volatility both virtually nonexistent. There are past instances of vola...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates were lifeless today as financial markets drifted sideways. Although rates CAN move during the last week of December when there's an imb...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 9:21 AM
Welcome to the void--the week that bond markets forgot, and/or the week that bond market participants may wish to forget after 3 and a half more days ...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 5:27 PM
Today created very little--if any--need to think, say, or do things that haven't already been thought, said, or done--at least when it comes to bond t...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is a victory unto itself on a week with 3 of the worse consecutive days of the year. In fact, lenders tha...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 9:36 AM
If you weren't already noticing that the worst of this week's selling spree was over with yesterday's ground-holding, today's early trading essentia...
Thu, Dec 21 2017, 5:21 PM
There were several economic reports at 8:30am this morning--names that have some track record of moving markets like GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Phil...
Thu, Dec 21 2017, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates edged just slightly higher again today, capping the sharpest 3-day increase since late June and leaving the average lender more than an...
Thu, Dec 21 2017, 9:29 AM
As we discussed yesterday, the flattening of the yield curve has been a dominant trading theme in 2017. It's also been a "crowded trade" for bond mar...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 4:45 PM
Today was much calmer than yesterday in terms of intraday volatility. The overall trading ranges in 10yr yields and MBS were more than twice as nar...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, largely due to momentum in bond markets (which dictate rates) carrying over from yesterday. Trading was far les...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 9:43 AM
Things have gone from "very sideways" to "very bad" for bond markets in less than 48 hours. As of Monday afternoon, this could have been any other ...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 5:25 PM
There were no market movers in play today. I'm not trying to be funny or clever. There were no market movers- -at least not in the traditional sens...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 4:47 PM
Mortgage rates surged higher today, ultimately making it back to levels not seen since late October in some cases (depending on the lender). Part of t...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 9:28 AM
It could just be random December trading that ultimately proves to be inconsequential, but every visit to the top of our recent ranges has to be take...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 5:27 PM
Last Friday I said that bond traders had "had enough" when it came to reacting to every little tax bill headline. That theme held true today, but now...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates bounced modestly higher today, bringing the average lender back in line with last Wednesday's levels. Bond markets (which underlie mort...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 9:48 AM
While it's not on some economic calendars yet, this Friday will be an "early close" for bond markets, meaning no trading after 2pm ET. Even then, v...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 7:32 PM
Bond traders are increasingly saying "enough already! " when it comes to reacting to every little push and pull in the tug-o-war over the tax bill. ...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, despite movement in bond markets that would have suggested otherwise. The paradoxical strength is likely du...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 9:15 AM
From time to time, a discussion will start up among MBS Live community members regarding certain habits for certain months of the year. Some popular ...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 4:55 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory partly due to a correction from yesterday's strong run in the afternoon, and partly due to stronger economic...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates held on to yesterday's gains in most cases. Some lenders were even in slightly better shape today, but not enough to have an effect on ...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 8:29 AM
Volume swelled during the first 3 days of the week, culminating in yesterday's CPI/Fed combo and a fairly large move lower in rates. That's what we c...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 5:59 PM
Heading into the day, we knew we were looking at 2 key market movers in the form of the CPI data and the afternoon's Fed festivities (which include ...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 4:57 PM
Mortgage rates fell fairly quickly this afternoon following the Federal Reserves updated economic projections. While it is indeed true that the Fed "r...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 8:26 AM
Today brings 2 key developments in the form of the 8:30am CPI data and the afternoon's Fed announcement. CPI--the Consumer Price Index--was one of ...
