Fri, May 3 2013, 4:29 PM
Today's jobs report made for the first significant swing to the weak side for MBS and Treasuries, but through the rest of the day, losses deepened, ta...
Fri, May 3 2013, 3:31 PM
This morning's Employment Situation Report had been the most hotly anticipated piece of data for bond markets for the past three weeks, and with it's ...
Thu, May 2 2013, 12:19 PM
There were three pieces of domestic economic data at 8:30am, but only one of them mattered to bond markets. Jobless Claims came in at 324k versus a f...
Thu, May 2 2013, 8:14 AM
A few friends have mentioned that it's baseball season currently, making the recent metaphorical usage of "lead-off's" in bond markets all the more ...
Thu, May 2 2013, 4:23 PM
Yesterday's respectable rally to the best levels of the year turns out to have been markets' way of taking a more defensive stance against this mornin...
Wed, May 1 2013, 12:25 PM
MBS prices love it when a plan comes together, and that has been the case this morning. The plan--not just for MBS, but broader bond markets too--was...
Wed, May 1 2013, 7:37 AM
The bases may not be loaded yet for MBS or our preferred directional guidance giver Treasuries, but at two runners are on, and both are taking their l...
Wed, May 1 2013, 4:50 PM
Today's rally was interesting. At first, it was all about ADP's employment data this morning. The series has been increasingly correlated with the B...
Wed, May 1 2013, 2:01 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor...
Tue, Apr 30 2013, 12:43 PM
We haven't been shy about characterizing the potential breakaway from 2+ weeks of sideways range as a "lead off." In case it needed any explanation, ...
Tue, Apr 30 2013, 7:11 AM
With the coming and going of the confidence vote for Italy's new Prime Minister Enrico Letta on Monday, and the absence of a discernible reaction in U...
Tue, Apr 30 2013, 4:37 PM
MBS walked in the door in positive territory this morning and are currently heading out the door in roughly the same shape. That nearness to opening ...
Mon, Apr 29 2013, 11:57 AM
Even though we had a few mid-tier economic releases this morning, the week has gotten off to a slow start, and that's just fine at these levels! Much...
Mon, Apr 29 2013, 7:49 AM
There's significant economic data every day this week and several potential watershed moments. The big-ticket events start hitting on Wednesday wit...
Mon, Apr 29 2013, 4:31 PM
Today was a perfectly acceptable--even if low volume--Monday for bond markets. Things were more quiet than usual right out of the gate with Japan and...
Fri, Apr 26 2013, 11:44 AM
Stronger-than-expected Consumer Sentiment has not been enough to offset weaker GDP or the prevailing bullish sentiment in bond markets. That sentiment...
Fri, Apr 26 2013, 8:14 AM
Today brings to a close a two week that has--until this morning at least--been one of the most sideways and tightly contained two full weeks we've s...
Fri, Apr 26 2013, 4:38 PM
A week ago today, we began wondering what the current week could possibly offer bond markets in light of the fact that next week brought month-end, th...
Thu, Apr 25 2013, 11:22 AM
Yesterday's highest 10yr yield was 1.727 seen just after 6am New York time. Today's high yield? 1.727, seen both at 8:37am following Jobless Claims ...
Thu, Apr 25 2013, 8:12 AM
Thursday boasts an uncommonly light overnight session in the EU and Asia followed by an only slightly less extraordinary morning for the domestic se...
Thu, Apr 25 2013, 4:34 PM
It's almost as if bond markets have been in a slow motion countdown to next week's events since April 15th. We've seen essentially no movement during...
Wed, Apr 24 2013, 11:58 AM
The overnight session started out flat for bond markets and grew weaker in the early hours of the morning. A push back against the moderate weakness...
Wed, Apr 24 2013, 8:13 AM
Wednesday then, becomes somewhat more important i n the sense that it has an opportunity to confirm a breakout on the daily chart if and only if it c...
Wed, Apr 24 2013, 4:23 PM
The overall trading range in MBS was 6 ticks from peak to trough, but that doesn't really tell the story of the flatness. With the exception of the f...
Tue, Apr 23 2013, 11:29 AM
Tradeflows have been a much bigger consideration this morning than the reaction to economic data. To that end, bond markets were on a mission to retu...
Tue, Apr 23 2013, 6:48 PM
Today's trading range turned out to be fairly similar to Monday's, with a notable exception. In both cases, the wider part of the range was seen in t...
Mon, Apr 22 2013, 11:47 AM
Before MBS began trading this morning, the overnight session was mostly negative for Treasuries. Asian equities were led higher by the Nikkei after t...
Mon, Apr 22 2013, 11:15 PM
April has been a pleasant month for MBS so far. Eleven out of the 16 trading days have been positive. Only 3 of the 5 down days have been more than ...
Mon, Apr 22 2013, 8:03 AM
Several weeks of relative silence out of the EU may soon be coming to an end. Certainly, market moving European news hasn't been completely absent th...
Mon, Apr 22 2013, 4:23 PM
If the PM hours were the only consideration for MBS markets today, it would have been as uneventful as Friday's super narrow session. Even without th...
Fri, Apr 19 2013, 12:21 PM
Trading ranges like today's are occasionally referred to as "inside days" due to the highs and lows resting "inside" yesterday's highs and lows. Insi...
Fri, Apr 19 2013, 7:13 AM
Although Friday's economic calendar is utterly empty, we're getting closer and closer to a time when decisions must be made as far as the trading mome...
Fri, Apr 19 2013, 4:14 PM
The day and the week had potential. As far as today was concerned, it was yet another chance to test the incessantly firm resistance that's capped the...
Thu, Apr 18 2013, 12:01 PM
The overnight session provided the week's best examples of logical cause and effect. Germany's parliamentary approval of the Cyprus bailout along wit...
Thu, Apr 18 2013, 8:05 AM
Bond markets may be getting ready to make a bigger movement in the near future for several technical and fundamental reasons. From a technical standp...
Thu, Apr 18 2013, 4:11 PM
The past two days have been interesting for bond markets and MBS as the realized volatility (the gaps between the highs and the lows) has remained w...
Wed, Apr 17 2013, 11:54 AM
The resistance theme of the week remains in play for MBS and Treasuries. Neither market has been able to successfully challenge the week's best level...
Wed, Apr 17 2013, 7:33 AM
For both MBS and Treasuries, the sense of "resistance " has been building for several sessions--" technical resistance" to be specific. This termin...
Wed, Apr 17 2013, 4:43 PM
If we consider the range of trading in MBS and Treasuries so far this week, Today's session saw both markets move from one extreme to the other and ha...
Tue, Apr 16 2013, 11:49 AM
The resistance theme mentioned yesterday and today continue to play out today, as has the headline "More Data, More Opportunity To Ignore It." The ...
Tue, Apr 16 2013, 6:46 AM
The theme of the week is resistance . Were it not for the Boston Marathon bombing and the timing thereof, it looked unlikely that bond markets would...
Tue, Apr 16 2013, 4:26 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory after Monday night's flight-to-safety demand steadily dried up overnight. The domestic session was gre...
Mon, Apr 15 2013, 12:05 PM
Excruciatingly little has changed since MBS got in the door this morning, and Fannie 3.0s continue to trade right in line with those longer-term resis...
Mon, Apr 15 2013, 7:51 AM
There's no question that the past three weeks of trading for domestic bond markets have been their best 3 week stretch of the year. This was exclusiv...
Mon, Apr 15 2013, 4:23 PM
The last few ticks of price improvements in MBS amount to ill-gotten gains as they represent a quick flight to safety owing, in large part, to the tra...
Fri, Apr 12 2013, 11:29 AM
Bond markets began the day in slightly better territory after the European session traded "risk-off." German debt rallied, peripheral debt and equiti...
Fri, Apr 12 2013, 7:29 AM
Thursday was an enjoyable day for bond market bulls as both Treasuries and MBS managed to open in positive territory and hold those gains without the ...
Fri, Apr 12 2013, 4:12 PM
There was a twofold rally underway right from the outset today. Europe kicked things off overnight as the risk-on move that had been going strong all...
Thu, Apr 11 2013, 12:21 PM
A welcome break from the recent norms this morning as bond markets have remained stable in slightly better territory. The strength began as the start...
Thu, Apr 11 2013, 7:37 AM
At this point, Treasuries have unwound not only last Friday's rally, but Thursday's as well. They're very close to the lower levels of a long term in...
MBS Market Alerts
