Thu, May 16 2013, 8:01 AM
If the presence of greater amounts of economic data was a benefit for bond markets on Wednesday (and we're not sure that it was), then Thursday has ev...
Thu, May 16 2013, 4:47 PM
Yesterday and again early this morning (before the data), we discussed the potential significance of yesterday's prices failing to make a new low for ...
Wed, May 15 2013, 12:46 PM
Once again, please note the timestamp in the pricing snapshot below, as it is about an hour and a half old now. This time gap will continue to be the...
Wed, May 15 2013, 7:09 AM
Wednesday brings enough data in the morning hours that it could help shape the trading day for bond markets. This wasn't the case on Tuesday where an...
Wed, May 15 2013, 4:36 PM
It's about 24 hours too soon to start getting excited, but for the very first time in May, MBS did NOT make new lows today! That's not for lack of tr...
Tue, May 14 2013, 12:18 PM
Please note the timestamp in the pricing snapshot below (11:09am EST). The mid-day post will always pull a snapshot of current prices between 11:00 a...
Tue, May 14 2013, 8:32 PM
On May 3rd, after NFP, we said: "historically, a move like today's that runs counter to more than a month of trending, has been more likely to mark th...
Tue, May 14 2013, 6:45 AM
Tuesday is the lightest day of the week in terms of scheduled data without only Import/Export prices in the 8:30am time slot. This report tends to no...
Mon, May 13 2013, 12:15 PM
Bond markets are again in short term consolidation mode (where the trading range of prices and yields grows increasingly narrow, forming what some ref...
Mon, May 13 2013, 7:45 AM
The week begins with the Retail Sales report, an uncommonly relevant piece of data to be in the 8:30am time-slot first thing Monday morning. It's m...
Mon, May 13 2013, 4:49 PM
This morning's Retail Sales report was only a small contributor to a sell-off that took it's more meaningful cues both from overnight trading as well ...
Fri, May 10 2013, 7:41 AM
At the risk of disappointing some the audience, let's skip the Top Gun shtick and focus on the danger zone that bond markets have been approaching thi...
Fri, May 10 2013, 6:16 PM
Today was a fairly jarring and brutal ride for bond markets--a true example of the sort of volatility that we often consider, but seldom see on data-f...
Fri, May 10 2013, 1:02 PM
Sorry to be getting the recap out to you later than normal, but updates and alerts for the MBS Live community are first and foremost, and on days l...
Thu, May 9 2013, 11:56 AM
The 30yr Bond Auction is coming up at 1pm, and while it's Treasuries that are being auctioned, the extra supply in the market has a moderate ripple ef...
Thu, May 9 2013, 7:46 AM
For the first time this week , we'll get economic data in the morning that actually stands a chance to move markets. In fact, the only 2 reports of ...
Thu, May 9 2013, 4:55 PM
To see the story told on MBS chart, it was an incredibly dramatic day
that ended with a steep sell-off. Several negative reprices late in the
day...
Wed, May 8 2013, 12:10 PM
Take note of the timestamp in the table below as things have changed somewhat from 11:09am EST. Bond markets put in good gains at the outset this mor...
Wed, May 8 2013, 6:37 AM
If bond market trading were a movie script , we're at that point just after "the girl" yells at "the guy." In the romantic comedies with the happy e...
Wed, May 8 2013, 4:15 PM
Today's trading was certainly more active than yesterday's in terms of both movement and volume. The movement started out on the weak side in US Hours...
Tue, May 7 2013, 11:38 AM
Much like yesterday, MBS opened in line with the lows from the previous afternoon (yesteray's "previous afternoon" would be Friday, of course). Also ...
Tue, May 7 2013, 7:37 AM
Monday stood a chance to be eventful, if for no other reason than it was the first day back after Friday's mega NFP sell-off. It turned out to be ex...
Tue, May 7 2013, 4:59 PM
You may have to imagine the title of today's MBS RECAP set to the tune of "Super Freak." Indeed, the trading day was freakishly flat as far as MBS we...
Mon, May 6 2013, 12:08 PM
With nothing on the economic calendar to move markets and no surprisingly inspirational headlines, MBS and Treasuries have been coasting along in a na...
Mon, May 6 2013, 7:21 AM
Apart from a round of Treasury auctions , the week ahead is exceptionally silent, with Thursday's initial Jobless Claims data being the only quasi-si...
Mon, May 6 2013, 4:34 PM
After losing as much ground as MBS and Treasuries lost on Friday, the breadth of expectations for today's trading widened considerably. The biggest r...
Fri, May 3 2013, 8:15 AM
Baseball has been very very good to us--doing a relatively perfect job of helping us characterize the "lead-off" that bond markets have been taking ...
Fri, May 3 2013, 4:29 PM
Today's jobs report made for the first significant swing to the weak side for MBS and Treasuries, but through the rest of the day, losses deepened, ta...
Fri, May 3 2013, 3:31 PM
This morning's Employment Situation Report had been the most hotly anticipated piece of data for bond markets for the past three weeks, and with it's ...
Thu, May 2 2013, 12:19 PM
There were three pieces of domestic economic data at 8:30am, but only one of them mattered to bond markets. Jobless Claims came in at 324k versus a f...
Thu, May 2 2013, 8:14 AM
A few friends have mentioned that it's baseball season currently, making the recent metaphorical usage of "lead-off's" in bond markets all the more ...
Thu, May 2 2013, 4:23 PM
Yesterday's respectable rally to the best levels of the year turns out to have been markets' way of taking a more defensive stance against this mornin...
Wed, May 1 2013, 12:25 PM
MBS prices love it when a plan comes together, and that has been the case this morning. The plan--not just for MBS, but broader bond markets too--was...
Wed, May 1 2013, 7:37 AM
The bases may not be loaded yet for MBS or our preferred directional guidance giver Treasuries, but at two runners are on, and both are taking their l...
Wed, May 1 2013, 4:50 PM
Today's rally was interesting. At first, it was all about ADP's employment data this morning. The series has been increasingly correlated with the B...
Wed, May 1 2013, 2:01 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor...
Tue, Apr 30 2013, 12:43 PM
We haven't been shy about characterizing the potential breakaway from 2+ weeks of sideways range as a "lead off." In case it needed any explanation, ...
Tue, Apr 30 2013, 7:11 AM
With the coming and going of the confidence vote for Italy's new Prime Minister Enrico Letta on Monday, and the absence of a discernible reaction in U...
Tue, Apr 30 2013, 4:37 PM
MBS walked in the door in positive territory this morning and are currently heading out the door in roughly the same shape. That nearness to opening ...
Mon, Apr 29 2013, 11:57 AM
Even though we had a few mid-tier economic releases this morning, the week has gotten off to a slow start, and that's just fine at these levels! Much...
Mon, Apr 29 2013, 7:49 AM
There's significant economic data every day this week and several potential watershed moments. The big-ticket events start hitting on Wednesday wit...
Mon, Apr 29 2013, 4:31 PM
Today was a perfectly acceptable--even if low volume--Monday for bond markets. Things were more quiet than usual right out of the gate with Japan and...
Fri, Apr 26 2013, 11:44 AM
Stronger-than-expected Consumer Sentiment has not been enough to offset weaker GDP or the prevailing bullish sentiment in bond markets. That sentiment...
Fri, Apr 26 2013, 8:14 AM
Today brings to a close a two week that has--until this morning at least--been one of the most sideways and tightly contained two full weeks we've s...
Fri, Apr 26 2013, 4:38 PM
A week ago today, we began wondering what the current week could possibly offer bond markets in light of the fact that next week brought month-end, th...
Thu, Apr 25 2013, 11:22 AM
Yesterday's highest 10yr yield was 1.727 seen just after 6am New York time. Today's high yield? 1.727, seen both at 8:37am following Jobless Claims ...
Thu, Apr 25 2013, 8:12 AM
Thursday boasts an uncommonly light overnight session in the EU and Asia followed by an only slightly less extraordinary morning for the domestic se...
Thu, Apr 25 2013, 4:34 PM
It's almost as if bond markets have been in a slow motion countdown to next week's events since April 15th. We've seen essentially no movement during...
Wed, Apr 24 2013, 11:58 AM
The overnight session started out flat for bond markets and grew weaker in the early hours of the morning. A push back against the moderate weakness...
Wed, Apr 24 2013, 8:13 AM
Wednesday then, becomes somewhat more important i n the sense that it has an opportunity to confirm a breakout on the daily chart if and only if it c...
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