Mon, Sep 16 2013, 4:32 PM
Interest rates have been determined and methodical about their slog
higher from May 2nd levels. That's been well over a full percentage
point bot...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 11:54 AM
For bond markets, it's another day of "positivity, but with a
catch." That's been the case with every single drop of positive
momentum this week!...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 4:43 PM
It takes some measure of bravery to bet big rates moving
significantly lower or higher from current levels when the rest of the
market is so decid...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 1:43 AM
At this point, next week's FOMC events are on a pedestal so high that
their actual stature may be hard-pressed to live up to the legend.
After al...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 8:14 AM
Yesterday traded like the Thursday of an auction week rather than a Wednesday, in that there was a noticeable sigh of relief
in bond markets after...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 4:34 PM
Today's commentary began with the observation that yesterday seemed
more like the culmination of an auction cycle than the middle of one.
Today's...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 1:22 PM
Treasuries were stronger overnight as Asian accounts kicked off the
session piling in to the same post Verizon/10yr Auction positivity seen
during...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 6:46 AM
Even with backs already up against a wall, bond markets still managed
to find a way to be weaker on Tuesday. Perhaps this means we need to
adjust...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 5:15 PM
MBS began the day roughly in line with yesterday's latest post-roll
levels (meaning October's 30yr Fixed Fannie/Freddie MBS opened today
where the...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 1:13 PM
The 10yr Auction just came in much stronger than expected. Bond
markets had been volatile ahead of time as the massive Verizon corporate
bond off...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 12:56 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory with a number of
factors eligible for blame. Overnight data was stronger in China and
Europe.n Te...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 6:43 AM
Tuesday sees the inception of both the Treasury Auction cycle and the
MBS Settlement cycle for the week and month. For MBS, this merely
means tha...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 5:25 PM
At this point in the day, it looks like MBS will be able to make it
to the exits with sustaining any major damage on top of that which was
already...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 12:15 PM
Treasuries were strong and steady overnight, building the sense
that Friday afternoon's weakness was more a factor of investors pulling
up stake f...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 6:37 AM
After Friday's Employment Situation Report posed just as many questions as it cleared up, we now move on to the countdown for the next watershed even...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 4:25 PM
There's very little to observe and even less to conclude about the day
of MBS trading so far. Fannie 4.0s have held within 2 ticks of 102-24
sinc...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 11:39 AM
If you've ever willingly sought and and enjoyed vanilla ice cream,
then you're already familiar with the flavor of today's bond market
rally. The...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 7:35 AM
Today we will receive long-awaited data that does more than anything
else to confirm or reject the notion of September tapering than anything
else...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 5:25 PM
Treasuries and MBS were coming off a rough day heading into this
morning's Employment Situation Report. 10yr yields hit their highest
levels and ...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 12:37 PM
This risk that today's session would bring a pre-NFP "lead off" in
the event of stronger data is coming to nauseating fruition before our
eyes. 1...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 8:02 PM
There's little left to say about today that hasn't already been said in the earlier MBS MID-DAY .
As that post notes, seeing bond markets take a "l...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 7:49 AM
Since the methodology change, 7 out of 9 reports have accurately
predicted the direction of movement in the official private payrolls
tally from...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 12:02 PM
Overnight markets were relatively uneventful with moderate weakness for
Treasuries during Asian hours and a slight recovery during European
hours....
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 6:38 AM
Typically, the Wednesday before an NFP Friday would bring ADP Private
Payrolls at 8:15am, but due to the holiday-shortened week, ADP will now
arri...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 4:32 PM
Focusing too closely on the events and market movements of this
single session could make for challenging and unsatisfying analysis.
Instead, if ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 12:29 PM
Even before this morning's economic data, bond markets were in
weaker territory as the US played catch up to the rest of the world's
Monday tradin...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 8:22 AM
As certainty of the Fed's intent to reduce asset purchases at the September meeting has waxed and waned (and waxed again), one thing
has remained ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 4:30 PM
The first day back after Labor Day weekend offered a bit of excitement
with bond markets on the ropes right from the start. This was primarily
a ...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 11:19 AM
Bond markets were flat for most of the overnight session before weakening in tandem with late European data and early domestic trading. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 5:41 AM
For more reasons than meet the eye, the 3-day Labor Day weekend
coming up is the most relevant near term consideration for markets.
There are oth...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 2:56 PM
In the spirit of a day where many market participants are leaving
early, here's an sneak preview of a recent MBS Live update that would
normally a...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 12:17 PM
It's been an interesting morning so far for bond markets, even if
it's ultimately to be inconsequential. Indeed, the message is being
sent that m...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 7:29 AM
Bond markets have increasingly shown their hand regarding Syria-related headlines and their ability to influence a flight-to-safety
(where stock p...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 4:58 PM
Essentially, nothing has changed since the mid day commentary. The
intro section there is the best recap of why today happened the way it
did. ...
Wed, Aug 28 2013, 11:44 AM
The recent reality for bond markets can be viewed in several ways.
We could consider the longer term trend toward higher rates or the more
recent...
Wed, Aug 28 2013, 7:11 AM
The mid-point of the week is acceptably plagued by
uncertainty. We can't really be sure which of the events on tap will
have the largest impact...
Wed, Aug 28 2013, 4:55 PM
When equities markets made a big "risk-off" move on Monday afternoon
after Kerry's Syria speech, it was plain to see that bond markets
weren't muc...
Tue, Aug 27 2013, 12:35 PM
As the morning update below notes, bond markets couldn't help but get
involved with the global flight-to-safety surrounding the turmoil in
Syria. ...
Tue, Aug 27 2013, 7:02 AM
The week got off to an interesting but pleasant start for bond
markets with MBS ending the day 3/8ths of a point higher than Friday's
close. Almo...
Tue, Aug 27 2013, 4:52 PM
MBS and Treasuries are both near their best levels after a day that
has
been almost exclusively positive thanks to the flight-to-safety
associat...
Mon, Aug 26 2013, 11:52 AM
So far today, we've seen one of the quietest, least-offensive post-data
rallies in recent memory. The overnight session set the stage for a
quiet...
Mon, Aug 26 2013, 6:58 AM
The week ahead is very different from the week past. Fed speakers
will be out in greater numbers and economic data arrives in abundance.
Top tha...
Mon, Aug 26 2013, 5:02 PM
This morning's weaker-than-expected Durable Goods numbers started the
day off positively for MBS and Treasuries. MBS especially were solid
all da...
Fri, Aug 23 2013, 11:29 AM
While there was a normal amount of overnight trading and volatility,
none of it really matters considering bond markets were near unchanged
levels...
Fri, Aug 23 2013, 4:52 PM
Weaker-than-expected New Home Sales data threw bond markets for a
loop today. There was essentially no data on tap this whole week, with
the exce...
Fri, Aug 23 2013, 1:22 AM
I once read that if the title of an article is phrased in the form of
a question that the answer is "no"--something to do with an author
that's no...
Thu, Aug 22 2013, 11:26 AM
MBS are in slightly positive territory for now, but advancing to
anything more triumphant has proven quite challenging so far. Fannie
4.0s saw th...
Thu, Aug 22 2013, 7:37 AM
What would an uneventful reaction to today's Jobless Claims data tell
us? Quite a lot actually. Considering that last week's Claims data
was the...
Thu, Aug 22 2013, 4:51 PM
Looking at today's trading activity in MBS in the context of recent
movement gives the impression that it was the sideways (but potentially
suppor...
Wed, Aug 21 2013, 11:29 AM
The overnight session was shockingly docile for Treasuries, with 10yr
yields staying super-glued to the 2.81-2.84 range before entering
domestic s...
MBS Market Alerts
