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MBS Commentary

Over a decade and counting! Mortgage News Daily has provided daily MBS market commentary to the mortgage industry since 2007.

NEW MBS RECAP: Weaker After Data, Stronger After Headlines

Tue, Sep 3 2013, 4:30 PM

The first day back after Labor Day weekend offered a bit of excitement with bond markets on the ropes right from the start. This was primarily a ...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Calmly Holding Gains; Unofficial Early Close

Fri, Aug 30 2013, 11:19 AM

Bond markets were flat for most of the overnight session before weakening in tandem with late European data and early domestic trading. 10yr yields w...

NEW The Day Ahead: Extended Holiday Weekend Trumps Data

Fri, Aug 30 2013, 5:41 AM

For more reasons than meet the eye, the 3-day Labor Day weekend coming up is the most relevant near term consideration for markets. There are oth...

NEW MBS Pinata is Out of Candy; Afternoon Volatility Expected

Fri, Aug 30 2013, 2:56 PM

In the spirit of a day where many market participants are leaving early, here's an sneak preview of a recent MBS Live update that would normally a...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Bond Market Swap Meet Helps MBS Recover Most Losses

Thu, Aug 29 2013, 12:17 PM

It's been an interesting morning so far for bond markets, even if it's ultimately to be inconsequential. Indeed, the message is being sent that m...

NEW The Day Ahead: GDP, Jobless Claims and Treasury Auction

Thu, Aug 29 2013, 7:29 AM

Bond markets have increasingly shown their hand regarding Syria-related headlines and their ability to influence a flight-to-safety (where stock p...

NEW MBS RECAP: Holding Gains on Slow Afternoon

Thu, Aug 29 2013, 4:58 PM

Essentially, nothing has changed since the mid day commentary. The intro section there is the best recap of why today happened the way it did. ...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Back to Reality for Bond Markets

Wed, Aug 28 2013, 11:44 AM

The recent reality for bond markets can be viewed in several ways. We could consider the longer term trend toward higher rates or the more recent...

NEW The Day Ahead: Syria, Treasury Auction, and Pending Sales

Wed, Aug 28 2013, 7:11 AM

The mid-point of the week is acceptably plagued by uncertainty. We can't really be sure which of the events on tap will have the largest impact...

NEW MBS RECAP: Range Trade Trumps All; Bond Markets Weaker

Wed, Aug 28 2013, 4:55 PM

When equities markets made a big "risk-off" move on Monday afternoon after Kerry's Syria speech, it was plain to see that bond markets weren't muc...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Overnight Gains Hold After Data; Resistance in Play

Tue, Aug 27 2013, 12:35 PM

As the morning update below notes, bond markets couldn't help but get involved with the global flight-to-safety surrounding the turmoil in Syria. ...

NEW The Day Ahead: Home Prices; Consumer Confidence; Geopolitical Risk Trickiness

Tue, Aug 27 2013, 7:02 AM

The week got off to an interesting but pleasant start for bond markets with MBS ending the day 3/8ths of a point higher than Friday's close. Almo...

NEW MBS RECAP: Grudgingly Accepting the Benefit of Geopolitical Risk

Tue, Aug 27 2013, 4:52 PM

MBS and Treasuries are both near their best levels after a day that has been almost exclusively positive thanks to the flight-to-safety associat...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Range-Bound Rally Continues; Pin-drop Quiet

Mon, Aug 26 2013, 11:52 AM

So far today, we've seen one of the quietest, least-offensive post-data rallies in recent memory. The overnight session set the stage for a quiet...

NEW The Week Ahead: Lots of Data and Fed Speakers

Mon, Aug 26 2013, 6:58 AM

The week ahead is very different from the week past. Fed speakers will be out in greater numbers and economic data arrives in abundance. Top tha...

NEW MBS RECAP: Strong All Day Following Weak Data, Light Supply, and Geopolitical Risk

Mon, Aug 26 2013, 5:02 PM

This morning's weaker-than-expected Durable Goods numbers started the day off positively for MBS and Treasuries. MBS especially were solid all da...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Soberingly Weak Housing Data Propels Rally

Fri, Aug 23 2013, 11:29 AM

While there was a normal amount of overnight trading and volatility, none of it really matters considering bond markets were near unchanged levels...

NEW MBS RECAP: Impressive Correction Following Home Sales Data

Fri, Aug 23 2013, 4:52 PM

Weaker-than-expected New Home Sales data threw bond markets for a loop today. There was essentially no data on tap this whole week, with the exce...

NEW The Day Ahead: Will This Chart Mean Anything?

Fri, Aug 23 2013, 1:22 AM

I once read that if the title of an article is phrased in the form of a question that the answer is "no"--something to do with an author that's no...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Slightly Positive Territory, but no Bullish Stampede

Thu, Aug 22 2013, 11:26 AM

MBS are in slightly positive territory for now, but advancing to anything more triumphant has proven quite challenging so far. Fannie 4.0s saw th...

NEW The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims are Important, Especially if They're Not

Thu, Aug 22 2013, 7:37 AM

What would an uneventful reaction to today's Jobless Claims data tell us? Quite a lot actually. Considering that last week's Claims data was the...

NEW MBS RECAP: Extended 'Bottoming-Out' at Yesterday's Lows

Thu, Aug 22 2013, 4:51 PM

Looking at today's trading activity in MBS in the context of recent movement gives the impression that it was the sideways (but potentially suppor...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Steady in Weaker Territory After Home Sales Data; FOMC Minutes Ahead

Wed, Aug 21 2013, 11:29 AM

The overnight session was shockingly docile for Treasuries, with 10yr yields staying super-glued to the 2.81-2.84 range before entering domestic s...

NEW The Day Ahead: Existing Home Sales and FOMC Minutes

Wed, Aug 21 2013, 7:00 AM

After The first two days of the week offered a fairly large sell-off and an equally large rally for bond markets--all against the backdrop of NO da...

NEW MBS RECAP: Markets Tank After Fed Minutes Leave Sep-Taper on Table

Wed, Aug 21 2013, 4:54 PM

The best thing that bond markets (and stocks too, for that matter) could have hoped for from today's FOMC Minutes would have been a fractured Fed ...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Continuing to Hold Overnight Gains

Tue, Aug 20 2013, 11:26 AM

Today's story is a fairly simple one. It relies on the prologue that bond market momentum has been decidedly skewed toward the weak side for at l...

NEW The Day Ahead: Falling Knives and MBS Changing of The Guard

Tue, Aug 20 2013, 7:06 AM

At least tomorrow morning there will be something substantive coming up during the course of the day to discuss with anticipation. Until then, we...

NEW MBS RECAP: Yesterday's Losses Recovered; FOMC Minutes and Data Ahead

Tue, Aug 20 2013, 5:26 PM

Bond markets had a tremendously strong overnight session with solid gains and big volume. Whether this had anything to do with the actual events ...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Struggling to Hold Near Friday's Weakest Levels

Mon, Aug 19 2013, 11:24 AM

Against the backdrop of a silent data calendar, bond markets are on the ropes. Both MBS and Treasuries have been grinding uncomfortably against F...

NEW The Week Ahead: Limited Data Focuses on Housing; Punctuated by FOMC Minutes

Mon, Aug 19 2013, 7:29 AM

One of the most interesting things about last week was the phenomenon of 'status quo' data serving to inspire heavy selling in both stocks and bon...

NEW MBS RECAP: When Will Sept-Taper be Priced-in?

Mon, Aug 19 2013, 4:51 PM

Bond markets continued free-falling today, ostensibly searching for the theoretical point at which a September 18th reduction in the Fed's asset p...

NEW MBS RECAP: After Econ Data, Bonds Smell Like September; Traders Bolt

Fri, Aug 16 2013, 9:00 PM

The balance of this week's economic data was unequivocally "not enough" to remove the stench of September tapering from MBS and Treasuries. It wa...

NEW The Day Ahead: Even The Pre-Taper Sell-Off Has Limits

Fri, Aug 16 2013, 7:20 AM

Yesterday's post was generally a warning against viewing 2.74 as a 'ceiling' in 10yr yields ( read it here ). That gives us the opportunity to disc...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Big Nasty Sell-Off. Widespread Reprices

Fri, Aug 16 2013, 2:23 PM

Please note the timestamp on the pricing snapshot below. This mid-day recap can occasionally be delayed if we're working on alerts and interactio...

NEW The Day Ahead: Busiest Day of the Week for Econ Data

Thu, Aug 15 2013, 7:14 AM

So far this week, Monday has shown us that bond markets were considering getting back in the swing of things after a dull week past. Tuesday conf...

NEW MBS RECAP: Data Delivers on Promise of Volatility

Thu, Aug 15 2013, 4:54 PM

Bond markets continue to adhere to the notion that near term economic data is fantastically important in honing in on a target date for tapering. ...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Absent Data, Bonds Bounce in Narrow Range

Wed, Aug 14 2013, 12:38 PM

Today was well-scripted in the sense that it offered little by way of actionable data compared to yesterday and tomorrow. Trading activity has been...

NEW The Day Ahead: Quick Break in The Action; Data Unlikely to Matter

Wed, Aug 14 2013, 7:15 AM

Yesterday's sell-off was a bit of wake-up call for anyone lulled into a false sense of security by last week's tepidity or their crystal ball's t...

NEW MBS RECAP: Eerily Quiet Session Places Emphasis on Tomorrow

Wed, Aug 14 2013, 4:30 PM

In stark contrast to yesterday's session, volume and volatility were nowhere to be found today. MBS and Treasuries entered the domestic session right...

NEW The Day Ahead: Retail Sales to Set The Tone

Tue, Aug 13 2013, 7:03 AM

Last week was one of those perfectly slow weeks that looked like it would be slow ahead of time and didn't disappoint. It was also "Shark Week" o...

NEW MBS RECAP: First Big Move in 7 Sessions is Unfriendly

Tue, Aug 13 2013, 4:35 PM

After maligning last week's lack of excitement, bond market bulls would be happy to have it back after today's sell-off. We were expecting more v...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Slow but Positive Start

Mon, Aug 12 2013, 11:57 AM

This morning's slowness was mostly to-be-expected. There's nothing on the calendar in terms of economic data until the afternoon and the report in qu...

NEW The Week Ahead: More Meaningful Economic Data

Mon, Aug 12 2013, 7:29 AM

Coming off a week that was uneventful by any standard, the week ahead is notably different in terms of its more robust economic data offerings. T...

NEW MBS RECAP: Illiquidity Paves Way for Volatility

Mon, Aug 12 2013, 5:03 PM

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary ++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++ MBS Pricing Snapshot Pricing shown below is delayed, please no...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Every Bit as Slow as it was Supposed to be

Fri, Aug 9 2013, 12:22 PM

Volume and volatility were exceptionally light in the overnight session with Treasuries holding flat during Asian hours, rallying during European ho...

NEW The Day Ahead: Roll Helps Range Stay Bound

Fri, Aug 9 2013, 7:50 AM

Last night was Class A Settlement for MBS--aka " the roll ." If the roll causes any confusion (pretty normal), try thinking of it like an assembl...

NEW MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Escape Unscathed by Excitement

Fri, Aug 9 2013, 5:14 PM

Nothing at all happened today. There were no significant market moving events. Data didn't matter--or at least no one cared to trade it today. ...

NEW MBS MID-DAY: Steady Near Highs Ahead of 30yr Auction

Thu, Aug 8 2013, 12:53 PM

Bond markets were initially stronger in the overnight session. Then they were weaker. Then they were stronger again. The net effect is that a l...

NEW The Day Ahead: Continuance of Tepid Rally Depends on Data and Auction

Thu, Aug 8 2013, 7:44 AM

There are fewer and fewer ways to express that the broader themes in bond markets are in place and that this week not only looked like an opportun...

NEW MBS RECAP: Coasting Out Near Best Levels; Uneventful Post-Auction

Thu, Aug 8 2013, 4:47 PM

Today's 30yr Bond Auction managed to create a few small spikes higher and lower in rates this afternoon before the long end of the yield curve settl...