Tue, Jul 16 2013, 7:17 AM
With Bernanke's congressional testimony still a day away, Tuesday's session offers an opportunity to either make something
of yesterday's ostensib...
Tue, Jul 16 2013, 5:03 PM
The last two days may as well have not even happened. With the small
exception of Retail Sales, the current week has been all about Bernanke
Test...
Mon, Jul 15 2013, 12:30 PM
Bond markets looked indecisive overnight, holding flat in the European
session, before moving into weaker territory as domestic participants
began...
Mon, Jul 15 2013, 5:10 AM
The extent to which bond markets will be able to continue building on
last week's consolidation will be predicated on this week's data and
events....
Mon, Jul 15 2013, 5:10 PM
Apart from the heavy volume that followed Retail Sales this morning, the
day was quiet for Treasuries and especially for MBS. It's not
impossible...
Fri, Jul 12 2013, 8:21 AM
Bernanke's Wednesday night soothe-saying (as opposed to
soothsaying--it's funny if you think about it) was enough to get bond
markets through Thur...
Fri, Jul 12 2013, 4:54 PM
For all the sturm and drang surrounding mid-day market movements
inspired by dueling ideologies between Fed speakers, MBS are inching
toward the d...
Fri, Jul 12 2013, 1:21 PM
Today has almost been a carbon copy of yesterday where MBS started out
the day holding highs, ticked just a bit higher at 10am and started
heading...
Thu, Jul 11 2013, 8:45 PM
Prices below are for July MBS as of 4:05pm. Just after 5pm, those
prices dropped abruptly for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS
(collectively "Cl...
Thu, Jul 11 2013, 1:48 AM
Bernanke spoke late enough in the day yesterday that his
market-moving question and answer session escaped the brunt of the
domestic session's blo...
Wed, Jul 10 2013, 8:13 PM
Note the timestamp in the snapshot below is from 4:04pm. MBS were
pretty beat up at that point in the day, but were soon to get a lift
from Berna...
Wed, Jul 10 2013, 6:44 AM
The first two days of the week have progressively undone much of last
Friday's damage. but neither has been much to write home about in terms
of v...
Wed, Jul 10 2013, 1:11 PM
The morning has been a bit bumpier than the previous two for bond
markets for several reasons--not the least of which being that prices
have falle...
Tue, Jul 9 2013, 12:50 PM
It's been another "nice" morning for bond markets. Treasuries are
holding their ground and MBS are improving incrementally. Both began
the day i...
Tue, Jul 9 2013, 7:37 AM
Monday's session was certainly lacking in conviction . Volumes
were out of line with historical examples of post-NFP Mondays
(especially after ...
Mon, Jul 8 2013, 12:34 PM
With last Friday being the day after a holiday in the middle of summer,
it's a fair assumption that NFP was the only reason for many bond market
p...
Mon, Jul 8 2013, 7:27 AM
After Friday's wild ride , the first two days back this week contain precious little by way of data and events to inform the trade. Considering Wedn...
Mon, Jul 8 2013, 5:04 PM
On a trading day with no meaningful data or events, bond markets went
calmly about their business--picked up at least half the pieces from
Friday'...
Fri, Jul 5 2013, 12:08 PM
Fannie 3.5s ended Wednesday's session at the exact same 100-31 price
that Fannie 4.5s ended the session before Black Wednesday in 2009.
Consideri...
Fri, Jul 5 2013, 8:44 AM
Bond markets had already been on the ropes during the overnight
session with 10yr Treasuries rising as high as 2.58 before the domestic
open. Som...
Fri, Jul 5 2013, 4:34 PM
As noted previously, trading was basically wrapped up very early in the
day as most participants didn't want to be here any longer than
necessary....
Wed, Jul 3 2013, 8:11 AM
Yesterday's commentary noted that bond markets were likely to be
'bowling with the bumpers' for one more day--or at least held it out as a
possibi...
Wed, Jul 3 2013, 1:01 PM
Expectations for light liquidity on this holiday-shortened trading day
were well-founded, as movements between highs and lows were coming
quickly ...
Tue, Jul 2 2013, 7:52 AM
After a docile session on Monday, Tuesday offers up even less by way
of economic data though might make up for some of the calendar
shortcomings w...
Tue, Jul 2 2013, 5:45 PM
Nothing happened today. It might not look
that way based on the charts considering that yesterday saw a decent
rally while today sold off a bit, ...
Tue, Jul 2 2013, 1:41 PM
Note the timestamp in the pricing snapshot below. Only a few
minutes after that, MBS and Treasuries sold off fairly quickly but
fairly moderately...
Mon, Jul 1 2013, 7:42 AM
The running consensus on when we'd see the first actual reduction in
Fed asset purchases--provided economic conditions don't change change
enough ...
Mon, Jul 1 2013, 5:11 PM
In the context of the past few weeks and months, something feels wrong
about today. Nothing is actually wrong (or actually "anything"
considering...
Fri, Jun 28 2013, 12:29 PM
The turning of the corner noted in the last alert quickly turned in to a
revisit to the highs of the day. Fannie 3.5s hit 101-15 and are
currentl...
Fri, Jun 28 2013, 7:42 AM
If market participants were into trading cards, the flavor of the month
would certainly be "cue cards." These are the things you need when
you're...
Fri, Jun 28 2013, 5:16 PM
Given all the volatility of the past 2 months--and especially the past 2
weeks--today's movements in MBS and Treasuries were relatively tame by
co...
Thu, Jun 27 2013, 12:55 PM
Coming in to today, markets were curious to see how Pending Home Sales
data would inform the discussion about an overheated housing market.
The n...
Thu, Jun 27 2013, 7:46 AM
If you were to say "QE cues" quickly out loud, it might sound like " kewy kews ." Acronyms and abbreviations
abound in the realm of market-watchi...
Thu, Jun 27 2013, 5:16 PM
At several points in the day, the improvements upon the already higher
opening levels seemed at risk of reversing--especially into the 11am and
2p...
Wed, Jun 26 2013, 12:56 PM
Please note the timestamp on the pricing snapshot below. Since then,
prices fell a bit more and we sent out one additional reprice alert to MBS Li...
Wed, Jun 26 2013, 7:49 AM
The shape of the charts yesterday is a dead giveaway on the extent to which markets continue to be hung up about the " QE on/off" trade .
While the...
Wed, Jun 26 2013, 4:49 PM
The last day MBS put in a 20 tick gain was Thursday June 6th, just
before NFP Friday. It would be excellent if we could conclude that
today meant...
Tue, Jun 25 2013, 11:29 AM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
The trading session has actually been one of the more straightforward we've seen in the past month ...
Tue, Jun 25 2013, 8:13 AM
Economic data shows up today, and there's reason to believe that it won't be as relevant
as it otherwise might be. Chief among these reasons is t...
Tue, Jun 25 2013, 5:16 PM
For a day where 10yr Treasuries are heading out the door more than 6bps
higher than the previous day (and at the highest closing yields in
nearly ...
Mon, Jun 24 2013, 11:34 AM
MBS Live: SPECIAL ALERT
We began the trading session today in MBS with liquidity conditions possibly WORSE than they were on May 27th, 2009--ak...
Mon, Jun 24 2013, 6:22 AM
Those whose pulses and pocketbooks are somewhat tied to bond
markets have enjoyed an era of unprecedented yields, both in terms of
outright leve...
Mon, Jun 24 2013, 5:13 PM
Bond markets were awakened just before the domestic session, not by a
bucket of cold water, but more like some evil crucible of lava and
ill-tempe...
Fri, Jun 21 2013, 11:30 AM
Bond markets are in a bad way... One constant theme we're hearing from traders has been the liquidity problems.
That means that bets are all over ...
Fri, Jun 21 2013, 8:29 AM
Not that economic data was our enemy on Thursday (more to do with
follow through from Wednesday), but today we have no data, and a day
behind us w...
Fri, Jun 21 2013, 5:28 PM
For those of us whose lives are intertwined by mortgage markets, these
are dark times. The 3-day sell-off just seen in MBS (or Treasuries for
tha...
Thu, Jun 20 2013, 12:50 PM
Please note the timestamp of the pricing snapshot below. The Mid-Day
commentary will occasionally be delayed when prices are volatile in the
11am...
Thu, Jun 20 2013, 7:08 AM
It will be hard for today not to have something of an anticlimactic
feel after seeing another nail driven into the QE coffin that magically
appe...
Thu, Jun 20 2013, 5:46 PM
Tough day for the modern era of ultra-low rates in ultra-compressed
ranges. It feels like a long time until July 5th NFP and even longer
until Se...
Wed, Jun 19 2013, 12:11 AM
By the end of this long MBS Commentary post, you'll see that all the MBS/Treasury trauma in May was already laid out by Bernanke on
March 20th . ...
MBS Market Alerts
