Fri, Jan 7 2011, 5:28 PM
Clearly the Household Survey paints a much different picture of reality than the Establishment Survey. Wall Street tends to focus on the growth implie...
Thu, Jan 6 2011, 11:17 AM
10yr yields are once again knocking on the door at 3.4287, remember they need to make it past 3.42 to confirm!
Thu, Jan 6 2011, 9:48 AM
The market has become more optimistic for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report since Wednesday’s ADP survey tripled expectations by showing a private pay...
Thu, Jan 6 2011, 5:48 PM
A Reuters poll showed they now foresee the U.S. added 175,000 jobs last month, up from 140,000 before the ADP number was released. Last month’s figure...
Thu, Jan 6 2011, 4:17 PM
3.42+ continues to turn away rising yields as we tick into the less liquid after hours part of the day. The ability of benchmark treasuries to hold su...
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 11:23 AM
The case is not necessarily closed, but so far this support zone has held up admirably with a few bounces off the the high side closer to 3.43 and ple...
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 9:21 AM
The Employment Situation Report prints on Friday. This data has been our focus for the last two weeks. Why?
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 8:37 AM
The Fed seemed to soothe bond buyers yesterday with generally dovish FOMC Minutes. Dovish = low inflation, low interest rate environment. While the un...
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 8:10 AM
Equity futures are lower and bonds are better on Wednesday morning as investors await key indicators on employment and the services industry.
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 4:15 PM
Supposedly strong JOBS DATA was the culprit behind today's forced liquidation of post 7-year note auction longs and the ultimate retest of 3.50% (prof...
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 4:15 PM
It makes more sense to view recent yield highs merely as a convenient location for things to run out of steam in this seller-dominated trading day. Af...
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 2:55 PM
Bargain hunters have parked their wallets and moved to the sidelines and sellers are making their presence known in the "rate sheet influential" belly...
Wed, Jan 5 2011, 1:42 PM
The "Live MBS Updates" Section of our new MBSonMND Dashboard has been a great indicator of that volatility today. It is updated as market conditions w...
Tue, Jan 4 2011, 11:17 AM
A trader from Cantor Fitzgerald wrote, "In order to win in 2011, you need to be right about the timing of the economy turning around. In my mind it's ...
Tue, Jan 4 2011, 8:34 AM
Both Treasury yields and S&P futures moved mostly sideways in Asian trading before making a directional move as London came back to work around 3AM e...
Tue, Jan 4 2011, 4:17 PM
10's tested this morning's highs in earnest, briefly eclipsing the 3.3578 mark from 9:54 AM to touch 3.361, but have since returned to sub 3.34 levels...
Mon, Jan 3 2011, 11:17 AM
10yr yields fell all the way to AM lows at 3.36, but have since ticked just slightly higher. So 3.36 to 3.42 marks the range in 10yr Treasuries this m...
Mon, Jan 3 2011, 10:35 AM
Because trading conditions are still illiquid and investors are still shaking out the cobwebs, tactical considerations remain the primary (un) inspira...
Mon, Jan 3 2011, 8:30 AM
Happy New Year. Welcome to MND 3.0! After 12 months of planning and hard work, we are very excited to launch the updated site. We've added and improv...
Mon, Jan 3 2011, 5:53 PM
Chart or no chart, it SHOULD all boil down to the big ticket economic items this week: FOMC minutes and Employment Situation Report.
Mon, Jan 3 2011, 4:23 PM
On average, loan pricing is 28.2bps better than it was last Thursday. We did not update our model on Friday. Improvements are pretty consistent across...
Mon, Jan 3 2011, 1:07 PM
While not quite the same as the agonies of 2007 and 2008, 2010 was another calamitous year for the mortgage and MBS markets. Here are my expectations ...
Fri, Dec 31 2010, 10:57 AM
Almost non-existent trading volumes continue to remind us of the 2pm bond market close that can't come soon enough on this last day of the year. This ...
Fri, Dec 31 2010, 8:36 AM
Good Morning. Happy Last Day of 2010.
Overnight trading in the Treasury market was slower than usual as Japan enjoyed an exchange holiday and the r...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 12:44 PM
10s have largely been able to elude the brunt of three bond bearish data sets this morning thanks to month-end index extension needs and previously pl...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 10:02 AM
Unless your lender was lite on the reprices for the better yesterday, rebate will be reduced today. If you gotta lock before January 7th...4.75 is you...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 9:10 AM
The seasonally adjusted initial claims number declined by 34,000 people while the unadjusted total climbed 24,879. Again, it's hard to say just how la...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 8:25 AM
Bonds are backing up a bit while and equity futures point modestly lower on the last full trading trading day of the year.
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 5:43 PM
It was a bouncy sort of day with multiple motivations in the market vying for their agenda here on the last full trading day of the year. Don't get m...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 11:44 AM
We're seeing some signs of life from bargain buyers, but nothing to get excited about, especially with trading volumes so low and price action largely...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 8:39 AM
The econ calendar is empty today. This leaves bond traders to focus on underwriting $29 billion 7-year notes. Treasury closes the TAAPS bidding window...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 5:34 PM
If you were watching the market today, you're already aware that we saw some pretty massive gains in production MBS coupons. 4.0's were up 38 ticks (...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 1:16 PM
Rates are rallying. If you haven't seen reprices for the better already, you will soon. So far this rally smells like a short squeeze so don't get ove...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 11:27 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller home price data and Consumer Confidence were both bond market friendly this morning. Yet the bond market did not react logically to...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 8:29 AM
Benchmark interest rates are holding onto yesterday's post-auction bond market rally even as equity futures rally toward new two-year highs. This come...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 5:20 PM
Today is not one of the best days for MBS purely from a PRICE standpoint. 4.5's lost nearly a point (down 25 ticks to 101-10). In fact, losses of th...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 1:53 PM
Prices are at their lows of the day, yields well above previous highs. Reprices for the worse could get heavy-handed....
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 8:17 AM
Welcome to the last week of 2010. We have three Treasury note auctions, two Fed QEII coupon passes, some housing data, and a couple of regional manufa...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 5:18 PM
Without an improvement in attendance we'd expect to see more random meandering about a defined yet wide range. Call it an exploratory "poking and prod...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 1:57 PM
The when-issued market was trading 2yr notes around .773 at the time of the 1pm auction. That means at a high yield of .74, the auction "traded throu...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 11:50 AM
Blah blah blah rates higher blah blah blah outside the range blah blah blah Treasury supply blah blah blah tactical considerations blah blah blah hol...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 9:48 AM
Today being the last trading day of the week, and a shortened one at that (SIFMA rec. 2pm), low volume is no surprise. In fact, it's 75% lower than a...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 8:25 AM
The final day of this holiday-shortened week is packed full of macroeconomic data. An hour before the first report, the stock market is mixed as inves...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 12:46 PM
Bearish trends are certainly more established at the moment, which is to be expected if we're right about the market beginning to build in a concessio...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:53 AM
The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE Price index fell from +1.6% in the 1st quarter to +0.8% in the 2nd quarter to a record low +0.4% ...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:26 AM
Interest rates are generally sideways, equity futures are flat and oil prices are above $90 per barrel while the market awaits final GDP revisions, ex...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 5:45 PM
First of all, the overriding caveat for today and probably for tomorrow as well is the low volume. Normally, low volume is seen at 60-90% of recent a...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 2:09 PM
It's too bad to refer to a negative trend in a positive way, but it is behaving just as expected. After breaking the triangle convergence, 10's have c...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 11:42 AM
Profit takers and short sellers are making their presence known following the Fed's latest POMO in the long end of the yield curve. Flows have gone ne...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 8:22 AM
The 2.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently +8/32 at 94-08 yielding 3.311%. The 2s/10s curve is 3bps flatter at 271 wide. The FNCL 4.5 is UNC...
MBS Market Alerts
