Mon, Jan 3 2011, 1:07 PM
While not quite the same as the agonies of 2007 and 2008, 2010 was another calamitous year for the mortgage and MBS markets. Here are my expectations ...
Fri, Dec 31 2010, 10:57 AM
Almost non-existent trading volumes continue to remind us of the 2pm bond market close that can't come soon enough on this last day of the year. This ...
Fri, Dec 31 2010, 8:36 AM
Good Morning. Happy Last Day of 2010.
Overnight trading in the Treasury market was slower than usual as Japan enjoyed an exchange holiday and the r...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 12:44 PM
10s have largely been able to elude the brunt of three bond bearish data sets this morning thanks to month-end index extension needs and previously pl...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 10:02 AM
Unless your lender was lite on the reprices for the better yesterday, rebate will be reduced today. If you gotta lock before January 7th...4.75 is you...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 9:10 AM
The seasonally adjusted initial claims number declined by 34,000 people while the unadjusted total climbed 24,879. Again, it's hard to say just how la...
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 8:25 AM
Bonds are backing up a bit while and equity futures point modestly lower on the last full trading trading day of the year.
Thu, Dec 30 2010, 5:43 PM
It was a bouncy sort of day with multiple motivations in the market vying for their agenda here on the last full trading day of the year. Don't get m...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 11:44 AM
We're seeing some signs of life from bargain buyers, but nothing to get excited about, especially with trading volumes so low and price action largely...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 8:39 AM
The econ calendar is empty today. This leaves bond traders to focus on underwriting $29 billion 7-year notes. Treasury closes the TAAPS bidding window...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 5:34 PM
If you were watching the market today, you're already aware that we saw some pretty massive gains in production MBS coupons. 4.0's were up 38 ticks (...
Wed, Dec 29 2010, 1:16 PM
Rates are rallying. If you haven't seen reprices for the better already, you will soon. So far this rally smells like a short squeeze so don't get ove...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 11:27 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller home price data and Consumer Confidence were both bond market friendly this morning. Yet the bond market did not react logically to...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 8:29 AM
Benchmark interest rates are holding onto yesterday's post-auction bond market rally even as equity futures rally toward new two-year highs. This come...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 5:20 PM
Today is not one of the best days for MBS purely from a PRICE standpoint. 4.5's lost nearly a point (down 25 ticks to 101-10). In fact, losses of th...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 1:53 PM
Prices are at their lows of the day, yields well above previous highs. Reprices for the worse could get heavy-handed....
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 8:17 AM
Welcome to the last week of 2010. We have three Treasury note auctions, two Fed QEII coupon passes, some housing data, and a couple of regional manufa...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 5:18 PM
Without an improvement in attendance we'd expect to see more random meandering about a defined yet wide range. Call it an exploratory "poking and prod...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 1:57 PM
The when-issued market was trading 2yr notes around .773 at the time of the 1pm auction. That means at a high yield of .74, the auction "traded throu...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 11:50 AM
Blah blah blah rates higher blah blah blah outside the range blah blah blah Treasury supply blah blah blah tactical considerations blah blah blah hol...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 9:48 AM
Today being the last trading day of the week, and a shortened one at that (SIFMA rec. 2pm), low volume is no surprise. In fact, it's 75% lower than a...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 8:25 AM
The final day of this holiday-shortened week is packed full of macroeconomic data. An hour before the first report, the stock market is mixed as inves...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 12:46 PM
Bearish trends are certainly more established at the moment, which is to be expected if we're right about the market beginning to build in a concessio...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:53 AM
The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE Price index fell from +1.6% in the 1st quarter to +0.8% in the 2nd quarter to a record low +0.4% ...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:26 AM
Interest rates are generally sideways, equity futures are flat and oil prices are above $90 per barrel while the market awaits final GDP revisions, ex...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 5:45 PM
First of all, the overriding caveat for today and probably for tomorrow as well is the low volume. Normally, low volume is seen at 60-90% of recent a...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 2:09 PM
It's too bad to refer to a negative trend in a positive way, but it is behaving just as expected. After breaking the triangle convergence, 10's have c...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 11:42 AM
Profit takers and short sellers are making their presence known following the Fed's latest POMO in the long end of the yield curve. Flows have gone ne...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 8:22 AM
The 2.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently +8/32 at 94-08 yielding 3.311%. The 2s/10s curve is 3bps flatter at 271 wide. The FNCL 4.5 is UNC...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 5:20 PM
Another data-less day has passed and we've seen another day of chopatility led by technical inflection levels surrounding the Fed's open market operat...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 1:56 PM
From a big picture perspective...the modest gains we've enjoyed lately have done little to dent the massive declines that played out in December. Reba...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 12:44 PM
Once the Fed's open market operations were done for the day...we started seeing rates make a move higher along with with a modest increase in trading ...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 10:06 AM
I've made a list. I've checked it twice. And yep. Confirmation! I have not finished my holiday shopping yet! Nor am I ready to welcome the holiday spi...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 8:55 AM
December floaters shouldn't be comfortable yet. You should actually be pretty antsy. That's how the market will behave next week at least. The week ah...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 5:34 PM
We started letting War Roomers into MBSonMND last week. So far so good! If you signed up to be a beta tester, be patient with us, your invitation is c...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 11:22 AM
We stand a reasonable chance of confirming the rally that began around mid-day yesterday. Bonds have added to those gains this morning but positive p...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 8:51 AM
The House of Representatives last night voted 277 to 148 to approve an $858 billion tax package extending the Bush-era tax cuts. After the news S&P fu...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 5:52 PM
Phew. We made it through yesterday afternoon. And then we made it all the way through today too! Rally intact!! Additional gains secured!!! Reprices f...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 2:08 PM
MBS and treasuries have broken their intraday resistance levels after earlier stability prompted fast$ bond "vigilantes" to cover their short positio...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 11:15 AM
Lots of data to recap this morning and lots of drama to digest from yesterday. Not much has changed overnight as MBS and treasuries both sit at simila...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 8:23 AM
Benchmark interest rates spiked yesterday afternoon following the Senate's passage of the tax cut extension bill. About half of those losses were reco...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 5:22 PM
For now....YAY the bleeding has stopped....For now. Let's see what happens tomorrow before we start getting excited about another false start.
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 2:10 PM
It sounds almost surreal, but the new best execution rate is 5.25%. We just blew through 4.75% and 5.00% in less than a week. Volatility in loan pric...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 12:05 PM
The 10yr note got gappy after the Fed completed their latest QEII POMO at 11am. The move has not been originator friendly. 10s have lost almost all of...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 8:34 AM
Plain and Simple: Inflation hawks really don't have a crutch to lean on if they're looking to explain the recent run up in rates as a factor of increa...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 8:23 AM
The bond market had another bad day yesterday following a strong read on Retail Sales and an improved outlook from the small business sector. Treasur...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 5:04 PM
Lots of explanations out there. Not much of a consensus on the actual cause of this mess though. Everybody seems to be grinding a different axe or tak...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 3:01 PM
Whether your a stock or a bond, you've been selling off hard in the past few minutes. 10 year yields have skyrocketed right past 3.5 and currently si...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 11:27 AM
Rates starting rising after 830am data and they haven't really stopped rising since then. If you are floating, beware, lenders may reprice for the wor...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 8:32 AM
Retail Sales show strong gains in seasonal consumer spending but larger sales volumes also reflect rising energy costs. On the surface this supports t...
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