Mon, Dec 6 2010, 9:23 AM
The week ahead is pretty light on fresh data until Friday brings in the latest trade balance and consumer sentiment figures. This leaves the broader m...
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 5:49 PM
It's already been said that today was a generally quiet day in the bond market. But it's the kind of quiet we'll smile about because it took the prod...
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 1:32 PM
In the absence of new domestic data, the Fed's fifteenth QEII open market operation has been the primary force behind price action in the government b...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 12:23 PM
Somebody call Spiderman! You know that thing he does when people are falling out of buildings and what not? With the wrists and the web shooting and...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 10:27 AM
Between a better than expected ISM report and the stock market's somewhat surprising unwillingness to sell-off on the NFP news, the 10yr note is showi...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 9:58 AM
As stock markets open down about a tenth of a percent, bond have been off the the races this morning, with the 10yr note dropping 10bps and MBS 4.0's ...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 8:30 AM
The November Employment Situation Report has been released. Contrary to the October report, November data was extremely disappointing .
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 8:16 AM
enchmark yields moved mostly sideways overnight but have ticked higher over the last hour as investors await the all-important jobs report for Novembe...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 7:23 PM
I'm here to offer some perspective amidst what might seem like crisis. The crisis? Weak NFP numbers sparked massive bond rally early which has compl...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 11:17 AM
AQ mentioned negative convexity and extending hedge ratios and that's indeed the reason for what seems like an overly aggressive drop. But if the ove...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 8:42 AM
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 16,000 heads in the week ending November 27th. This was 11,000 claims above the median forecast...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 8:28 AM
Stock markets continue to rally Thursday morning ahead of key labor and housing data....and the bond market continues to suffer as a result.
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 7:11 PM
The last time the Employment Situation Report was recapped on this blog, we were fresh off a one-day QEII rally that had led mortgage rates back down ...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 2:51 PM
A depressed housing market, burgeoning retail and tourism statistics, price sensitivity, and producer price pressures are among the things noted in th...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 8:48 AM
All that buying we witnessed yesterday, in VERY high volume, was erased overnight. The yield curve is significantly steeper this morning and "rate she...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 8:26 AM
A global rally to begin December has stocks soaring ahead of a full schedule of macroeconomic data. The risk trade is back on it's not helping interes...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 2:56 PM
What began as a bad day for bonds with overnight optimism regarding the Eurozone crisis was only made worse by a slew of as-expected or better than ex...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 1:24 PM
oan pricing got whacked by lenders today. On average rebate is 55.5bps worse with some chunky reductions in the note rates below 4.50%. As much as 75b...
Tue, Nov 30 2010, 10:47 AM
Although we experienced a modest rally retracement heading into the release of Case-Shiller and following Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, the ove...
Tue, Nov 30 2010, 10:11 AM
Bond markets are improved again this morning, adding follow-through to some positive momentum from late last week. Those gains began after some preci...
Tue, Nov 30 2010, 8:53 AM
The flight to safety that pushed U.S. interest rates lower yesterday has extended into today's trading session. Equities are weaker around the world, ...
Tue, Nov 30 2010, 5:50 PM
Yesterday, the last price to come across our screens for Fannie 4.0's was 101-16. So I suppose the fact that today's last price was 101-17 should be ...
Tue, Nov 30 2010, 1:25 PM
After running into some overhead resistance, MBS have rapidly hit new lows making reprices for the worse likely. From highs around 101-26, FN 4.0's ...
Mon, Nov 29 2010, 12:50 PM
Because lenders were on autopilot after Thanksgiving, I decided to run my loan pricing comparison vs. rebate offers from last Wednesday, which was not...
Mon, Nov 29 2010, 9:27 AM
The risk trade is off again this morning as the dollar gains value and U.S. TSYs catch a bid while stock futures deflate. That might be a bit dramatic...
Mon, Nov 29 2010, 8:34 AM
"Rate sheet influential" interest rates are marginally lower this morning ahead of an important week of fresh economic data. The schedule includes key...
Mon, Nov 29 2010, 3:37 PM
Although they cut their output forecast, the Fed still expects a noticeable GDP improvement in 2011 from 2010. This uptick in total output is expect...
Sun, Nov 28 2010, 8:17 PM
I always poke around my viewer on Sunday nights. This is what I was looking at....
Fri, Nov 26 2010, 8:35 AM
I feel fat and lazy but the yield curve is bull flattening and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are chipping away at the unraveling that occurred ...
Fri, Nov 26 2010, 1:18 PM
Recent choppy movements in bond markets are trying to trick you. They want you to believe that something important has CHANGED. While I wholehearted...
Wed, Nov 24 2010, 12:28 PM
The bond market lost it's bid and offer prices were pushed lower and lower to attract buyers. And just like that...poof...three days of positive progr...
Wed, Nov 24 2010, 11:00 AM
We are seeing a complete repricing in the bond market at the moment with weakness really taking flight following 830 econ data. Loan pricing is especi...
Wed, Nov 24 2010, 8:27 AM
Interest rates are giving back yesterday's flight to safety rally and equities are recovering this morning after a rout that pushed the major indexes ...
Wed, Nov 24 2010, 1:19 PM
10s and 30s down over a full point in price now. 10s yielding 2.905%. 2s/10s curve back over 236 pivot at 238bps wide. Cash FNCL 4.0s -21/32 at 101-04...
Tue, Nov 23 2010, 8:44 AM
The BEA has released Q3 Preliminary GDP data. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the adva...
Tue, Nov 23 2010, 8:21 AM
The risk trade is off this morning, the yield curve is bull flattening and "rate sheet influential" benchmarks have broken a key resistance level. Tw...
Tue, Nov 23 2010, 6:04 PM
Plain and Simple Recap: "In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants generally agreed that the incoming data indic...
Tue, Nov 23 2010, 2:18 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons are 9/32 off their price highs. This may prompt some lenders to reprice for the worse.
Tue, Nov 23 2010, 1:57 PM
Well. If there was anytime to say the indirect bid reflects overseas bidder interests, now would be the time. Indirect accounts were awarded a 20-auct...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 12:41 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS prices are trading higher this morning and lenders have passed along some love.
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 11:50 AM
The big story for global financial markets today is the EU/IMF's 80-90 billion euro bailout for Ireland. WARNING: this whole "Ireland thing" is not y...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 8:34 AM
Interest rates are rallying after the market heard news that Ireland's Prime Minister Brian Cowen had asked for and will receive financial assistance ...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 2:55 PM
We don't want to get ahead of ourselves during a holiday shortened trading week, but this choppy price action does offer a few glimmers of hope....mos...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 1:12 PM
The 2s/10s curve is steeper as dealers distribute 2s while the "getting is good". 10s seem to have printed a local high price and are now retesting th...
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 11:40 AM
Prices of front month FNCL 4.0 are down 1 tick at 101-17+. This follows an afternoon rally yesterday that brought them to nearly 101-24 this morning....
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 8:24 AM
Investor focus is likely to remain on foreign events and speeches today, as no significant economic data is scheduled for release, this implies we sho...
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 3:10 PM
We're long overdue a look at loan pricing. I have charted loan pricing on 4.00%, 4.25%, and 4.50% note rates going back to late June.
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 2:41 PM
Naturally, many billions of extra dollars flowing into the bond market are going to cause movements, and we'll see the extent of those in the charts t...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 10:07 AM
We've been talking a lot about bearish technical biases in the bond market lately. Besides needing to overcome that rally resistance we've also been ...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 10:03 AM
Initial Jobless Claims released this morning at 830am showing a small 2k increase from 437,000 last week. The 439k was basically dead on with consens...
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