Fri, Oct 29 2010, 8:30 AM
Plain and Simple: GDP data was on the screws. A few things stood out to me. Weakness in the housing market is VERY OBVIOUS....see the 29.1% decline in...
Fri, Oct 29 2010, 8:26 AM
Ahead of a deluge of data, domestic interest rates are improved. This follows the release of several discouraging reports on the international economy...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 10:04 AM
We sniffed out the pain trade the day after $13 billion long bonds were met with poor demand. The pain trade is just about played out and benchmark in...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 8:28 AM
The long end of the yield curve continued to weaken early in the overnight session but have since corrected back to yesterday's yield lows/price highs...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 6:08 PM
The first step in revisiting record low mortgage rates was taken today. Selling in the long end of the curve stopped out, shorts were covered, prices ...
Thu, Oct 28 2010, 1:30 PM
lain and Simple: Overall, this 7-yr auction was very well received, and has pushed benchmark yields lower. It is definitely the best auction of the w...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 12:32 PM
There is a great deal of nervousness regarding the outlook for interest rates as it relates to QEII. I expected this to happen.The bond market got ahe...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 8:29 AM
Ahead of a $35 billion 5-year Treasury note auction, the 5-year note is -9/32 at 99-23 yielding 1.306% (+5.3%) and the 10-year Treasury note is -17/32...
Wed, Oct 27 2010, 1:08 PM
10s are off their yield highs and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are off their intraday price lows....but both are generally bouncing around nea...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 9:06 AM
"A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figu...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 8:20 AM
Benchmark interest rates backed up yesterday in a low volume trading environment. The move was short term in nature but clearly illustrates the idea ...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 2:31 PM
This post is more of an FYI as opposed to an alert. If you're floating I would not recommend locking at this point in the retracement process. The lon...
Tue, Oct 26 2010, 1:05 PM
The bid to cover ratio, a measure of auction demand, was above average, the high yield was lower than the 1pm "When Issued Yield", direct and indirect...
Mon, Oct 25 2010, 11:27 AM
The bond market reacted counterintuitively to better than expected Existing Home Sales data this morning. Price are rising, trading volumes are low an...
Mon, Oct 25 2010, 8:40 AM
New & Existing Home Sales, S&P/Case-Shiller HPI, Treasury Auctions, Q3 GDP, Consumer Confidence,Durable Goods Orders, the MBA Convention, Fed/FDIC M...
Mon, Oct 25 2010, 1:50 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS prices have fallen over 10 ticks in the last five minutes. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
Fri, Oct 22 2010, 11:46 AM
The yield curve is bear steepening and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are in the red but well off the lows and outperforming benchmark guidance ...
Fri, Oct 22 2010, 8:38 AM
After a quiet overnight trading session, interest rates in the long end of the yield curve are moving higher and equity futures are heading sideways.
Thu, Oct 21 2010, 12:08 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS have recently benefited from a supportive supply/demand environment in the TBA marketplace. Those favorable conditions drie...
Thu, Oct 21 2010, 11:25 AM
After failing to breach 2.46% resistance yesterday, the 10 year TSY note is experiencing profit taking following a stale overnight session and better...
Thu, Oct 21 2010, 8:20 AM
Mortgages continued to trade well in a favorable technical environment yesterday. Read "favorable technical environment" as investor demand outpaces l...
Wed, Oct 20 2010, 12:42 PM
"This is your central bank. This is your Federal Open Market Committee. This is your country. May we all hope that a kind providence will give us the ...
Wed, Oct 20 2010, 11:22 AM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons continue to benefit from favorable supply and demand technicals and an on-going chase for yield. As a result, produ...
Wed, Oct 20 2010, 8:29 AM
U.S. federal regulators will meet on Wednesday to discuss the foreclosure crisis amid concerns it could affect the housing market and broader economy,...
Wed, Oct 20 2010, 1:59 PM
There has been a modest uptick in activity but the fundamentals of a sustained economic recovery are not present. The question is: ARE MODEST IMPROVEM...
Tue, Oct 19 2010, 12:49 PM
Stocks are flagging lower, the yield curve is bull flattening, and positive price appreciations across the curve have led rate sheet influential MBS ...
Tue, Oct 19 2010, 9:19 AM
Rates did react negatively to the release but it is important to note that weakness was present in the bond market prior to 830 housing data. There's...
Tue, Oct 19 2010, 8:24 AM
Interest rates are higher and stock futures are falling ahead of housing starts and building permits data. Further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s pl...
Mon, Oct 18 2010, 11:45 AM
The long end of the yield curve is catching a corrective bid and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are tagging along for the ride. Rebate is a litt...
Mon, Oct 18 2010, 8:56 AM
A slow macroeconomic data calendar in the week ahead includes industrial production today and housing starts Tuesday, but more important may be the he...
Fri, Oct 15 2010, 11:50 AM
The pain trade is playing out in the long end of the yield curve but "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are displaying resiliency.
Fri, Oct 15 2010, 8:41 AM
Ben was clear that QEII is coming, but was very cautious when discussing possible policy approaches in relation to the two headed mandate monster. The...
Fri, Oct 15 2010, 7:41 AM
If another QE program is to be effective, the Fed will need to expend much energy managing the market's rational expectations. This means the FOMC's c...
Fri, Oct 15 2010, 2:16 PM
Benchmark 10s are at session price lows/yield highs, which has dragged "rate sheet influential" MBS coupon prices even lower.
If you have not recei...
Thu, Oct 14 2010, 12:15 PM
Benchmark 10s are just about back to their session high yield as Treasury prepares to release the results of their $13 billion long bond fundraiser. T...
Thu, Oct 14 2010, 8:59 AM
Rate sheet influential MBS prices are basically flat but likely heading lower ahead of the bond auction (IMO). Reprices for the better were not wides...
Thu, Oct 14 2010, 8:28 AM
Benchmark interest rates traded in a tight range overnight near yesterday's yield lows while equity futures ticked sideways near yesterday's highs. Cu...
Thu, Oct 14 2010, 2:07 PM
Lock desks have plenty of pipeline coverage after selling forward about $5.5 billion in loan supply over the past two days. That left dealers long yes...
Wed, Oct 13 2010, 8:42 AM
The yield curve is steeper and benchmark interest rates are higher ahead of a $21 billion 10-year Treasury note auction. The 2s/10s curve is 3bps stee...
Wed, Oct 13 2010, 2:51 PM
"Rate sheet influential" TSYs have found a bid after running into a key technical support level. To the delight of the dealer community, flows have sh...
Wed, Oct 13 2010, 1:01 PM
It is widely anticipated that the Fed will announce QEII in the not so distant future, which should push bond prices higher and lead yields lower. Fro...
Tue, Oct 12 2010, 9:37 AM
The December FNCL 3.5 is trading +0-08 at 101-03. Trading flows are thin ahead of the 3 year note auction and FOMC minutes but rates are recovering fr...
Tue, Oct 12 2010, 8:55 AM
The holiday shortened week ahead is filled with data, Federal Reserve speakers, debt auctions, and the beginning of earnings season
Tue, Oct 12 2010, 5:39 PM
After a slow overnight session that left rates better bid heading into the domestic trading day, benchmark TSY yields and rate sheet influential MBS p...
Tue, Oct 12 2010, 2:03 PM
"Although participants considered it unlikely that the economy would reenter a recession, many expressed concern that output growth, and the associate...
Tue, Oct 12 2010, 1:08 PM
Treasury has just auctioned $32 billion 3-year notes. Even though the market did its best to let the issue cheapen, record low yields and a generally ...
Fri, Oct 8 2010, 10:19 AM
I have waited and waited and waited to do this but I think I can safely award the 3.5 MBS with the official production coupon designation. YAY! 30 ye...
Fri, Oct 8 2010, 8:40 AM
QUICK RECAP: NFP: -95K vs. call for UNCH vs. Aug -57K. Private Sector +64K jobs vs. call for +75. vs. +93K in August. Government job cuts total 159K v...
Fri, Oct 8 2010, 7:58 AM
Economists polled by Reuters currently believe the report will show the labor market was flat last month after 54k jobs were lost in August. Private e...
Fri, Oct 8 2010, 3:37 PM
If you haven't gotten a reprice for the worse yet, you will be soon. If you have gotten a reprice for the worse, I don't rule out another round of reb...
MBS Market Alerts
