Tue, May 2 2023, 4:09 PM
What a Difference a Day Makes
Bonds completely erased yesterday's snowball sell-off with an even bigger snow...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:38 AM
After a sharp sell-off to start the week, bonds are back in action this morning, enjoying the carnage and chaos in the economy every bit as much as th...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:46 PM
Snowball Sell-Off to Start The Month
Sometimes headlines reference the beginning or end of any given day/wee...
Mon, May 1 2023, 12:13 PM
The bond market is in a trifecta of trouble so far this morning. Just before the open, JPM announced that it was assuming the loans and deposits of F...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:40 PM
Stronger Today, Sideways in General
Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:54 AM
Bonds were ushered into the domestic session in moderately stronger territory thanks to a friendly policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and soft...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:38 PM
Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP
Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs ...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 12:30 PM
The bond market is standing in front of the whack-a-mole game with only 2 holes. On one side is the mini banking crisis. On the other side is inflat...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Follow First Republic News Cycle; MBS Underperform
First Republic Bank (FRC) remains in focus as a tra...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 11:23 AM
On the heels of yesterday's weak earnings, First Republic was back in the news this morning with reports that it's exploring a fire sale that would in...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Risk Aversion Returns. Bonds Like It
First Republic's weaker earnings set the tone in the overnight session ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 11:17 AM
Weaker earnings from a few notable names, including First Republic Bank... Weaker economic outlooks at home and abroad... Debt ceiling trepidation......
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Should Have Taken The 3-Day Weekend!
Every so often, the bond market has a Monday that does absolutely nothi...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 1:05 PM
The bond market remains in an aggressively sideways holding pattern as traders wait for economic data and events that have enough street cred to meani...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:01 PM
From Slightly Stronger to Slightly Weaker After PMI Data
The "data dependent" theme kept on rockin' all week...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 1:06 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory and made some gains early. The 9:45am PMI data was the only item on the calendar and we'd consider...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 10:36 AM
The bond market is certainly in a lull in terms of highly consequential data and events. It will be almost a full two weeks before the next Fed meeti...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:43 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Threatening The Range Yet Again
If yesterday looked like a challenge to the prevaili...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 11:54 AM
The bond market is nothing if not willing to react to economic data these days. After all, that data will add up to a very big revelation regarding t...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:42 PM
Super Sideways After AM Volatility
It turned out to be an intensely uneventful day for the bond market after...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 12:34 PM
In a week without an obvious focus or flashpoint for the bond market, it wouldn't be too surprising to see traders fall back on a range-trading strate...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:35 PM
Frustratingly Persistent Selling Pressure in Bonds
Bonds got off to a rocky start well before the domestic s...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 12:31 PM
If you had to reduce the past few weeks of bond market movement to the most basic of explanations, you might say that the jobs report on April 7th led...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 3:57 PM
Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off?
The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly ...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 12:32 PM
Perhaps there's some recency bias in play, but we're hard pressed to remember a big, obvious bond market sell-off in response to a big miss in Retail ...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:16 PM
Longer Term Rates Lose Ground Despite Softer Inflation
Today's initial focus was on the big drop in Producer...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 9:26 AM
If only the bond market cared as much about producer prices as it does for consumer prices! The latter had a fine showing yesterday with CPI coming i...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:11 PM
Mixed Reactions to CPI and Fed Minutes
This morning's "as-expected" inflation data was very well received by...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 10:44 AM
The importance of economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated in the current environment. Case in point, this month's i...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:29 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Wednesday morning brings the most consequential economic data of the next several weeks in t...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 12:19 PM
With the global financial market mostly firing on all cylinders after the various closures of the holiday weekend, the post-NFP defensiveness remains ...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 4:00 PM
Unofficially Still Waiting For The Week to Begin
Bonds took today to get caught up after an unconventional h...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 12:34 PM
The juxtaposition of an uncharacteristically early close on Friday, an important nonfarm payrolls release, and widespread holiday closures in European...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 3:03 PM
Straightforward Selling After Jobs Data; CPI Up Next
While it's possible to find a few folks on the internet...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 11:53 AM
This morning's jobs report was very close to perfectly in line with forecasts. While the job count declined from last month, the report was strong ov...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:32 PM
Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report
10yr yields began the week over 3.5% and rallied more than 20...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 12:04 PM
The tone of Wednesday's trading was a bit different than the previous two days. All 3 featured motivation for lower rates/yields from the economic da...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 4:16 PM
Rates Rally Cautiously After ISM Services Data
On the approach, today's ISM Services PMI looked like the 2nd...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:03 AM
Apart from Friday's jobs report, this morning's ISM Services (or "non-manufacturing") data was the week's most relevant market mover in terms of sched...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:44 PM
Downbeat Data Primes The Pump For Shift
Tuesday's Job Openings report combined with Monday's ISM Manufacturi...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 11:17 AM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight. But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS dat...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 3:49 PM
Downbeat Data Puts Downward Pressure on Rates
Although there was some cause for concern in the overnight tra...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 9:39 AM
The bond market is still in the process of reestablishing composure after the recent banking panic. The bank episode sent Fed rate expectations plumm...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 3:34 PM
Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data
Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and ...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 12:12 PM
Today brings two new updates on inflation. Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously. This isn't nearly...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 3:52 PM
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was signifi...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 12:00 PM
Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game. What are we waiting for? Successive day...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 4:44 PM
Another Boring (But Resilient) Day
After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcom...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 12:10 PM
In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated. This is a more normal trading pattern for...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 4:59 PM
The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks
Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Sili...
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