Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:29 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Wednesday morning brings the most consequential economic data of the next several weeks in t...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 12:19 PM
With the global financial market mostly firing on all cylinders after the various closures of the holiday weekend, the post-NFP defensiveness remains ...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 4:00 PM
Unofficially Still Waiting For The Week to Begin
Bonds took today to get caught up after an unconventional h...
Mon, Apr 10 2023, 12:34 PM
The juxtaposition of an uncharacteristically early close on Friday, an important nonfarm payrolls release, and widespread holiday closures in European...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 3:03 PM
Straightforward Selling After Jobs Data; CPI Up Next
While it's possible to find a few folks on the internet...
Fri, Apr 7 2023, 11:53 AM
This morning's jobs report was very close to perfectly in line with forecasts. While the job count declined from last month, the report was strong ov...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 4:32 PM
Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report
10yr yields began the week over 3.5% and rallied more than 20...
Thu, Apr 6 2023, 12:04 PM
The tone of Wednesday's trading was a bit different than the previous two days. All 3 featured motivation for lower rates/yields from the economic da...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 4:16 PM
Rates Rally Cautiously After ISM Services Data
On the approach, today's ISM Services PMI looked like the 2nd...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:03 AM
Apart from Friday's jobs report, this morning's ISM Services (or "non-manufacturing") data was the week's most relevant market mover in terms of sched...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:44 PM
Downbeat Data Primes The Pump For Shift
Tuesday's Job Openings report combined with Monday's ISM Manufacturi...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 11:17 AM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight. But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS dat...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 3:49 PM
Downbeat Data Puts Downward Pressure on Rates
Although there was some cause for concern in the overnight tra...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 9:39 AM
The bond market is still in the process of reestablishing composure after the recent banking panic. The bank episode sent Fed rate expectations plumm...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 3:34 PM
Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data
Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and ...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 12:12 PM
Today brings two new updates on inflation. Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously. This isn't nearly...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 3:52 PM
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was signifi...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 12:00 PM
Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game. What are we waiting for? Successive day...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 4:44 PM
Another Boring (But Resilient) Day
After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcom...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 12:10 PM
In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated. This is a more normal trading pattern for...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 4:59 PM
The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks
Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Sili...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 10:20 AM
The week began with a somewhat sharp sell-off. This followed the steady selling pressure in bonds seen last Friday (albeit after the lowest opening y...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 3:53 PM
Bonds Buyers Back Off as Banks Bounce
Bank health continues to dominate the news cycle with investors buying...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 9:26 AM
Bond yields began rising at 2am this morning when news broke regarding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). First Citizens bank will acquire...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 4:40 PM
Bonds Manage to Hold Gains Despite Risk Recovery
Everything has been driven by the "risk-on, risk-off" movem...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 10:07 AM
The old sign on the trading floor that proudly boasted we had gone 2 days without a systemic banking flare-up (as of yesterday) has been reset to "0,"...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 3:56 PM
Bonds Improve on Late Day Risk Aversion; Thoughts on Liquidity
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territ...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 12:11 PM
The Fed cleared a lot up for the market yesterday by confirming that inflation still matters, but that systemic banking problems also matter. Powell ...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 4:55 PM
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite a Fed Hike and a Stubborn Dot Plot
Today promised to be one of the most inter...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 2:02 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust picked up in recent months, months and are runn...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 11:19 AM
It's difficult and probably not that important to rank today's Fed day against other iterations over the past few years. It's easy to say that it is ...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Stocks and Bond Yields Moving Higher Together; Fed on Deck
Today's trading session turned out to be every bi...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 10:05 AM
Relative to the presence of important market developments and high volatility, the current landscape for bonds is surprisingly simple. The banking pa...
Mon, Mar 20 2023, 3:55 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Even More Focus on The Fed
If there happened to be some significant economic data tod...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 4:46 PM
Simple, Boring, Half Point Rally in MBS
There won't be too many days with a half point MBS rally that are as...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 9:59 AM
While there are no new bank failures in play, financial markets have traumatic memories from last Friday and last weekend. Better safe than sorry hea...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:04 PM
Bank Lifelines Lead Bond Market Reversal
Financial markets continue feeling out prospects for global banking...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 11:21 AM
While yesterday's Credit Suisse concerns were serious, the last official major bank failure happened 5 days ago. That's a very long time considering t...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:03 PM
You Have Gone Zero Days Without a Systemic Contagion Flare-Up
As of Tuesday, the global financial market was...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 11:01 AM
After systemic banking fears died down earlier in the week, Credit Suisse and other European banks are saying "game on!" Stock prices of said banks l...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 3:21 PM
Where's the 4th Biggest Bank Failure?
With the 2nd biggest bank failure in history on Friday and the 3rd big...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 9:47 AM
What a difference a little systemic banking crisis makes! Without the last 3 business days, today's CPI data may well have tipped the scales toward a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 4:13 PM
Breaking Down the Big Move in Rates and Considering The Road Ahead
The 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 8:59 AM
Despite the announcement of a Fed/Treasury/FDIC backstop for SVB and Signature Bank, financial markets are trading as if current events imply a sea ch...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 3:20 PM
SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally
In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a compa...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 12:36 PM
The most notable development on jobs day has stunningly turned out to be the trading that came before the jobs report in the overnight session. Bonds...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:24 PM
Thursday Was Nice, But It's All About Friday
There wasn't much for the bond market to sink its teeth into on...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:11 AM
After a ho-hum and mostly sideways overnight session, bonds are starting the day with a surprisingly swift reaction to the Jobless Claims data. While...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:26 PM
Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse
Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker terri...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 11:20 AM
The world "resilient" has frequently been repeated in the commentary over the past two weeks, and today is already shaping up to be worth adding to th...
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