Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 11:28 AM
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k. Additionally, the previous month was re...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 4:30 PM
Post Fed Weakness Keeping Markets on Edge
Wednesday's Fed reaction reverberated through overseas markets ove...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 12:33 PM
Powell did as was expected yesterday by acknowledging an eventual conversation about slowing the pace of rate hikes while at the same time reminding m...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 5:34 PM
Powell Sticks To Same Script (The One That Bonds Don't Really Like)
Today's much-anticipated Fed announcemen...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 11:57 AM
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year. 4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook. Those announcement days tend to produc...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 4:52 PM
Both Sides of The Market Eagerly Trading Fed Cues
Stocks and bonds both began the day in stronger territory ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:43 PM
November kicked off with a strong showing from buyers after October's month-end session saw a fair amount of selling. But the gains didn't last long....
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 10:03 AM
Throughout the week, we've been of the mind that last week's losses were overdone and this week's gains represented a correction to that unjustified w...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 4:59 PM
Another Move to Long Term Lows 'Just Because'
Today began with more upward pressure on yields, apparently du...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 11:08 AM
Today begins with bond yields at new 14 year highs with the ostensible culprit being the inflation reading in the UK overnight. While there's no ques...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:30 PM
Secret Market Movers or New Normal For Intraday Volatility?
Today's most exciting moments arrived just after...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 11:16 AM
When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and ...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 4:26 PM
Technically Stronger But it Feels Weaker
Bonds began the day in stronger territory with overnight support co...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 12:40 PM
Recall that last Friday saw an extremely sharp selling spree led by UK and exacerbated by domestic data (consumer inflation expectations). Yields end...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 4:28 PM
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and E...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 12:32 PM
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe. Kwarteng, the British Finance Minister who kicked off the worst ...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 5:00 PM
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but t...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 11:42 AM
Pretty simple this morning, at first anyway. Bonds hoped to see just a modicum of relief in the most important data series of 2022, the Consumer Pric...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 4:16 PM
Fully Free to Focus on CPI After Tuesday's Uneventful Data and Events
Bonds shrugged off this morning's PPI ...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 12:42 PM
Bonds had a mixed overnight session with modest gains initially and moderate losses during European hours. In a bit of a break from the norm, German ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 3:42 PM
Bonds Dodge British Bullet But Still Fighting For Survival
The overnight session and especially yesterday's ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 12:05 PM
The holiday trading session was dominated by another snowball sell-off in British bonds with the UK 10yr yield rising more than 30bps. Much like last...
MBS Market Alerts
