Fri, Jul 29 2022, 10:37 AM
Both the June PCE inflation data and the Employment Cost Index came in hotter than expected this morning. Bonds certainly thought about selling in re...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 3:54 PM
Big Rally After Big GDP Miss
We don't often think much of GDP as a major consideration for the bond market, ...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 12:23 PM
Feel free to debate recession vs no recession amongst yourselves. The economy is more complex than a single word, but today's GDP number says the eco...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 4:56 PM
MBS Outperform After Powell Discusses The Fed's Outlook
The Fed stuck closely to the script in today's annou...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 2:01 PM
Overall economic activity appears to Recent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job softe...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 12:36 PM
A few weeks ago, expectations ramped up for the Fed to hike rates by 100bps at the conclusion of today's meeting. That sentiment lasted only a few da...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 3:56 PM
Leading-Off And Pulling-Back Ahead of Fed
Bonds began the day in stronger territory thanks to another overni...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 10:55 AM
July has been a month with a decidedly European flair for the US bond market. Sure, there's been plenty of inspiration from domestic inflation data a...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 4:17 PM
Slow Start With Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Volume was "summertime low," which is par for the course o...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 10:52 AM
Bonds rallied fairly sharply at the end of last week, largely in response to weaker economic data at home and abroad. In Friday's recap, we discussed...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 4:59 PM
Rally Accelerates After Weak PMI Data. Fed Coming Up Next Week
Eurozone PMI data was much weaker in the over...
Fri, Jul 22 2022, 11:12 AM
This week's decidedly European theme was only reinforced overnight as bonds benefitted from weaker PMI data in Germany, France, and the overall Eurozo...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 4:26 PM
Big Bad Econ Data and Big ECB News = Big Victory For Bonds
Bonds shrugged off a 50bp hike from the European ...
Thu, Jul 21 2022, 11:15 AM
If you had to pick today's most important calendar item based on its potential impact on the bond market, the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement...
Wed, Jul 20 2022, 3:51 PM
Strong Start and Strong Reversal Ahead of ECB
European markets led bonds well into stronger territory overni...
Wed, Jul 20 2022, 10:01 AM
On a week without much by way of domestic econ data and the biggest ticket market mover being Thursday's European Central Bank announcement, it's no s...
Tue, Jul 19 2022, 11:08 AM
If we were limited to only one observation about the bond market over the past few trading sessions, it would be that volume and volatility have been ...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 4:42 PM
Weaker Despite Decent Mid-Day Bounce
Bonds began the week in weaker territory with yields pulled higher by E...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 11:15 AM
This week's economic data is primarily focused on the housing market with NAHB, Housing Starts, and Existing Sales on the first 3 days respectively. ...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 3:38 PM
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 12:10 PM
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeti...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 4:23 PM
Nice Bounce Back After a Bumpy Morning
All in all, today's trading range fell inside yesterday's and this we...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 12:27 PM
In the bigger picture, longer-term yields are trading a narrow, sideways range this week with today's yields well inside yesterday's range and yesterd...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:25 PM
Did Rates Just Realize They're Invincible?
Want to see an interest rate that isn't worried about going much ...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:59 AM
We knew CPI was the biggest potential market mover this week and it hasn't disappointed in that regard. It has also provided bonus entertainment in t...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Retreat After Auction. Here Comes CPI
Bonds began the day in a surprisingly strong stance and it didn'...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:30 AM
Bonds are starting the day in much stronger territory, and this raises a few interesting points and questions. First off, it's interesting to see a 2...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Open to Suggestion Ahead of Inflation Data
After selling off fairly swiftly for most of last week, bon...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 12:27 PM
Heading into the new week early this morning, Treasuries refused to move any higher than Friday's highs and ultimately moved lower as they followed an...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 5:01 PM
Rates Defeated by Data. Another Big Fight Next Week
This week's recap is fairly straightforward. Rates were...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 12:54 PM
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus. Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 4:35 PM
Bond Bounce Continues Ahead of Jobs Report and Next Week's CPI
Apart from a brief breakout in mid-June, rate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 11:18 AM
Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 4:31 PM
Sharp Losses Offer a Reminder About The Range
We first began to discuss the prevailing rate narrative on May...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:41 AM
The 2nd half of the last 2 months has been good for the bond market, as long as you're willing to overlook the fact that both multi-week rallies requi...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading ...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week's data focus was all about today...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
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