Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:24 AM
Last week was volatile for bonds with trepidation heading into (and out of) the Fed Announcement. A surprisingly strong reversal on Thu/Fri brought y...
Fri, Jun 18 2021, 3:52 PM
MBS Only Slightly Better While 10yr Shines
As discussed in the day ahead, the bond market is in the midst of...
Fri, Jun 18 2021, 11:04 AM
Our typical definition of "repricing" has to do with mortgage lender reprices, but the term has always existed beyond our little corner of the market....
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 4:31 PM
Strong Showing For Longer-Dated Bonds
With the Fed's dot plot in focus yesterday, the associated drama was h...
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 10:55 AM
After Wednesday's Fed-inspired rout, bond yields have done a great job finding support in the 1.56-1.59% area overnight amid high volume trading. All...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed's Salty Dots Rock Bonds
As feared/anticipated, today was all about the "dots" (the dot plot that shows F...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 9:52 AM
There are 8 Fed announcements per year (barring emergencies). Today's announcement is one of the 4 that include updated economic projections (the "do...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 4:10 PM
Pre-Fed Paralysis Despite Some Interesting Data
Retail Sales down 1.3% and last month revised up to 0.9%? C...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 9:00 AM
On weeks that close out with the big jobs report, an inordinate amount of headlines include a reference to the impending data. The same is true with ...
Mon, Jun 14 2021, 4:19 PM
New Week, New Sense of Urgency
The new week wasted no time in differentiating itself from the previous week ...
Mon, Jun 14 2021, 9:20 AM
Last week was relatively impressive and perhaps somewhat surprising in terms of bonds' ability to rally in the absence of overt fundamental motivation...
Fri, Jun 11 2021, 3:55 PM
Bonds Circle Weekend Wagons as Fed Day Looms
This week was a bit of a barn burner for the bond market with 1...
Fri, Jun 11 2021, 9:43 AM
Slightly weaker?! How could we say such things when the MBS chart looks like this:
Don't worry. This isn't exactly "real" due to the roll. The...
Thu, Jun 10 2021, 4:00 PM
Best Levels in Months After Much Higher CPI Data (No, Really!)
If you'd told someone that core annual CPI wo...
Thu, Jun 10 2021, 10:04 AM
If you'd told someone that core annual CPI would come in 0.4% higher than expected at a staggering 3.8%, but that Treasuries would only sell-off a few...
Wed, Jun 9 2021, 3:51 PM
Strong 10yr Auction Reinforces Friendly Trend
Bonds charged into the domestic session making surprisingly sw...
Wed, Jun 9 2021, 10:37 AM
In the past 48 hours, bonds have entered into one of those interesting rally patterns marked by a striking absence of conventional motivations. That ...
Tue, Jun 8 2021, 3:53 PM
Snowball Rally Reinforces Post-Payrolls Opportunities
Last week's jobs report created an opportunity to ride...
Tue, Jun 8 2021, 10:24 AM
A short squeeze occurs when bond yields fall to levels that force short sellers to cover their positions (read more here, if that didn't make sense), ...
Mon, Jun 7 2021, 4:25 PM
Sideways to Start The Week, But That's Still a Victory
Last Friday's jobs report sparked a reasonably big bo...
Mon, Jun 7 2021, 9:37 AM
Summertime Mondays--especially those without any significant calendar events--have a tendency to be lighter than normal in terms of volume and volatil...
Fri, Jun 4 2021, 3:05 PM
Locking vs Floating After Today's Jobs Report
NFP missed the mark and bonds ultimately rallied today. That ...
Fri, Jun 4 2021, 9:45 AM
The reaction has been back-and-forth in a very narrow range, but with very typical volume for NFP (in other words, traders are clearly trading... they...
Thu, Jun 3 2021, 4:36 PM
Have We Mentioned The Jobs Report?
It seems that there's been more build-up than normal ahead of this month'...
Thu, Jun 3 2021, 9:48 AM
A clear theme has emerged this morning. The day's early jobs-related reports have all come out noticeably stronger (technically Challenger Layoffs in...
Wed, Jun 2 2021, 4:00 PM
Sideways and Still Waiting on Friday's Jobs Report
Today's trading lived up to the sideways promises discuss...
Wed, Jun 2 2021, 9:23 AM
The spring of 2021 has been marked by a sideways consolidation that alternates between being "a sure thing" and "surely about to end. By mid April, b...
Tue, Jun 1 2021, 3:31 PM
Bonds a Bit Nervous as Big Data Week Begins
If there was ever a time when economic data was inconsequential ...
Tue, Jun 1 2021, 9:24 AM
The new, holiday-shortened week begins with a good amount of weakness versus Friday's latest levels. Nonetheless, yields are right in the middle of t...
Fri, May 28 2021, 3:03 PM
Decent Gains Despite Hotter Inflation Data
While there was nothing especially memorable about today's tradin...
Fri, May 28 2021, 10:04 AM
When we pondered the possibility (or frankly, the likelihood) of core inflation numbers hitting 3.0%+ several months ago, there was no way to know exa...
Thu, May 27 2021, 3:37 PM
Moderate Weakness; Decent Treasury Auction
7yr Treasury auctions haven't been great for the bond market in 2...
Thu, May 27 2021, 9:28 AM
With so much uncertainty about economic outcomes in the coming months, and with a healthy amount of bond market weakness already seen in the first qua...
Wed, May 26 2021, 3:35 PM
Yields Find a Floor Ahead of Month-End and Long Weekend
Today's most notable feature was a paradoxical move ...
Wed, May 26 2021, 9:41 AM
When yields began to rise in August 2020 (and when they continued to rise at an even fast pace in Q1), we began looking for an intermission that wou...
Tue, May 25 2021, 4:05 PM
Surprisingly Strong Move For No Great Reason
While there were a few positive developments for bonds today, t...
Tue, May 25 2021, 9:27 AM
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin had the mic this morning at the NC Chamber of Commerce and one of his comments does a good job of capturing the esse...
Mon, May 24 2021, 3:56 PM
Uneventful But Slightly Stronger Start
At times, and especially during the summertime months, Mondays end up...
Mon, May 24 2021, 10:51 AM
May's nonfarm payrolls number (released on June 4th) is the next obvious instance of a big ticket market mover. Between now and then, there are sever...
Fri, May 21 2021, 4:08 PM
Stronger Data Proves No Match For The Sideways Grind
Bonds have done a good job of clearing hurdles of vario...
Fri, May 21 2021, 10:00 AM
Who would have ever imagined that a week where the Fed Minutes included the first notion of post-pandemic instance of "tapering" could end up being "q...
Thu, May 20 2021, 3:39 PM
Inflation Expectations And Weaker Econ Data Helping Bonds
Ever since last week's CPI data caused inflation e...
Thu, May 20 2021, 9:49 AM
Wednesday was a bit silly in the sense that a fairly innocuous reference to tapering in the Fed Minutes was blown out of proportion by the time market...
Wed, May 19 2021, 3:48 PM
Questionable Taper Talk Conclusions Result in Heavy Selling
The word "heavy" requires some qualification. I...
Wed, May 19 2021, 9:10 AM
Bonds were flat to start the overnight session, but moved higher right at the start of European trading. This has been a major theme in the past few ...
Tue, May 18 2021, 3:26 PM
Low Volume/Volatility For a Second Straight Day
Although it was last Wednesday that offered the lion's share...
Tue, May 18 2021, 9:09 AM
Today's only notable economic release is helping the bond market get off to a stronger start today. New Residential Construction, came out weaker tha...
Mon, May 17 2021, 4:03 PM
Super Slow Day; Still Waiting For Breakout
Whether it's the narrow range between 1.62 and 1.68% in 10yr yiel...
Mon, May 17 2021, 9:24 AM
Q4, 2020 was all about yields moving higher at a gradual pace. Same story for Q1, 2021, but at a much quicker pace. If Q2, 2021 has a them, it's bee...
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