Mon, Oct 4 2021, 9:57 AM
Bonds managed to consolidate by the end of last week after yields surged to the highest levels since June. They're now faced with the choice to acqui...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 4:43 PM
Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3
Last week conditioned us for Drama. Monday and Tuesday su...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 11:32 AM
Today is off to a relatively tame start with yields trading in the narrowest range of the week so far. It also marks the 3rd straight day of modest r...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over?
After some initial weakness brought 10yr yields back in lin...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 9:26 AM
In case you missed it, things have been bad for bonds since last Thursday. A combination of factors conspired to push yields higher at the fastest pac...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 4:17 PM
Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree
After 4 straight days of heavy selling pressure, bon...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 10:39 AM
When bonds sell off as decisively as they have over the last 4 trading sessions, it's only a matter of time before buyers push back. The bigger the s...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 4:50 PM
Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market
Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond m...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 10:02 AM
Momentum, macroeconomic considerations, and Fed policy continue to dominate the bond market since last Thursday as traders are swept up in the widespr...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 4:29 PM
Losses Continue Despite Decent 5yr Treasury Auction
Today's 5yr Treasury auction was respectable with the in...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 9:50 AM
At the end of last week, we noted the looming Treasury auction cycle at the start of this week. Due to calendar constraints, it's earlier than normal...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 3:37 PM
Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?
It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yi...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 10:47 AM
As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear pic...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 2:41 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?
It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical cei...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 10:03 AM
Wednesday's reaction to the Fed was essentially a non-reaction with yields ending the day very close to pre-Fed levels. Traders were more willing to ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 4:31 PM
Powell Effectively Confirms November Taper Barring NFP Catastrophe
Bonds reacted well to the initial Fed ann...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 10:02 AM
We've been pining for this particular Fed day for weeks, at least. In fact, as early as June 1st, we pointed out that Fed speakers seemed to suggest ...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 3:54 PM
"Inside Day" Placeholder Ahead of Wednesday's Main Event
The AM commentary revisited and reiterated the cons...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 9:54 AM
Trading ranges and consolidation patterns can make for tedious discussion when they're well-behaved for weeks on end. We began discussing the current...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 4:18 PM
Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks
When it comes to stocks vs bonds, pundits generall...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 9:53 AM
Evergrande is a Chinese real estate company that has been circling the drain for months. During that time, press reports increasingly suggest that Ev...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 4:33 PM
Traders Move to Sidelines Ahead of Fed Announcement
September's big Fed announcement doesn't hit until next ...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 10:07 AM
The headline is a bit dramatic, but not untrue. 10yr yields were as high as 1.351 yesterday--just a moderate day of weakness away from the 2-month hi...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 3:54 PM
Uneventful Afternoon After Strong Data Sends Yields Higher
Today's key development was the duo of much stron...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 9:08 AM
Bonds are starting the day on the back foot as Retail Sales rose 0.7% despite a median forecast of -0.8. The Philly Fed numbers also surged past 18.8...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 4:08 PM
Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet
Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower bound...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 9:57 AM
Yesterday's most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka "pennant," to use a technical ...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 7:04 PM
arlier this year, the FHFA and Treasury amended Treasury's preferred stock repurchase agreements (PSPAs) to put limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 4:13 PM
Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big tick...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 9:34 AM
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week's Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one ...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 4:20 PM
Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Treasuries have experienced more of the volatility in...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 10:06 AM
There is a smattering of data in the week ahead with Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's Retail Sales reports being the headliners. Data is merely a "potent...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 4:00 PM
Bond Weakness Reinforces The Consolidation Pattern
Bonds were weaker overnight and the selling trend continu...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 9:26 AM
Bonds are starting the day in moderately weaker territory. In so doing, 10yr yields are rejecting the opportunity to break below the 1.30% technical ...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 3:38 PM
Strong Auction Trifecta Helps Bonds Hold The Range
The day began with a relatively bond-friendly European Ce...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 10:50 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) was widely expected to do "something" to tighten up its PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in today's policy a...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 3:44 PM
10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?
Today's 10yr auction was exceptionally strong. ...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 9:50 AM
Yesterday marked the weakest weekly opener in several months as bonds built on negative momentum following last week's jobs report and positioned them...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 3:50 PM
3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness
Bonds have been consolidating in roughly a 17bp range c...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 9:18 AM
After being closed for Labor Day yesterday, the bond market is noticeably weaker to start the new week. In the overnight session alone, yields rose e...
Fri, Sep 3 2021, 4:26 PM
MBS Outperformance is Part of the Answer to Today's Riddle
When does an obviously weak jobs report result in...
Fri, Sep 3 2021, 11:23 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 235k versus a median forecast of 728k. Poll a hundred market strategists about the likely market impact and 99 of them wo...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 4:05 PM
Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP
The widest trading range of the week has been 4.5bps (...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 10:10 AM
Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report--much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates. They're typically fairly boring with movement that tends to ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:06 PM
Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration
Today's ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit. If ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 11:00 AM
The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government's non-farm payroll number. Assessing its efficacy ...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears
Bonds improved after weaker economic data this morning. Trade...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 12:09 PM
Tuesday morning wasted no time in confirming the relevance of economic data to the current bond market environment. When Chicago PMI came out weaker ...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 5:35 PM
Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range
Bonds were at the top of their recent range last Frid...
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