Fri, Mar 5 2021, 10:30 AM
Today began with Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 379k vs 182k forecast. Last month's numbers were revised up to 166k from 49k. The unemployment rate t...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 4:19 PM
Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It)
From this AM: "some recent analysis h...
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 2:57 PM
There seems to be a fair amount of surprise and confusion surrounding today's bond market sell-off in response to Fed Chair Powell's Q&A with the WSJ....
Thu, Mar 4 2021, 9:29 AM
Monday and Tuesday brought a stronger start for bonds and, with it, hopes that a broader bounce was in the works. Wednesday dashed those hopes and in...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 3:51 PM
MBS Outperform, But Bonds Fail To Confirm The Bounce
Tuesday's gains increased odds that a friendly bounce w...
Wed, Mar 3 2021, 9:30 AM
Bonds had a great day yesterday--not so much because the rally covered a ton of ground, but rather because it helped build a case for the end of the m...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 4:25 PM
Much Better Day For Bonds. Dare We Discuss It?
A fairly flat morning gave way to an afternoon rally, especia...
Tue, Mar 2 2021, 9:34 AM
- The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart)
- 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?)
...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 3:57 PM
Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy
- New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ...
Mon, Mar 1 2021, 10:13 AM
After Friday's impressive (and much-needed) bounce toward lower yields, the new week/month took on even greater importance than normal as a venue for ...
Fri, Feb 26 2021, 5:47 PM
Nice Bounce! Now What?
- An early bounce turned into an even bigger, friendlier bounce at the end of the...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 4:58 PM
Just When You Thought It Wouldn't Get Much Worse
Staggeringly weak day for bonds.
2.0 MBS coupon is now ...
Thu, Feb 25 2021, 10:37 AM
It got much worse. Bond yields were up more than 8bps by the open with the 10yr just a hair under 1.47%. It might be hard for traders to avoid ringi...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Is It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I Watch Now?
Yesterday's bond market resilience offered hope for a bo...
Wed, Feb 24 2021, 9:49 AM
Yesterday saw yields hold at just slightly lower highs on an intraday basis, thus offering a glimmer of hope for a bond bounce. We discussed the risk...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 4:37 PM
Glimmer of Hope in Bonds, But It Might Be a Trap
Bonds started the day in roughly unchanged territory and pr...
Tue, Feb 23 2021, 10:04 AM
In the past few weeks--and especially the past few days--we've seen a sharp spike in MBS yields relative to Treasury yields. And yes, the Treasury yi...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 5:00 PM
Huge Mortgage-Specific Weakness
The rate reset continues. Just when you thought 10yr yields surely couldn't...
Mon, Feb 22 2021, 10:15 AM
Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far. The move has surprised more than a few market pa...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 3:22 PM
Surprisingly Swift Selling in The Bond Market; What's Next?
This week has been one of the most surprising se...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 10:13 AM
Given recent temperature trends, we're well within our right to expect actual bears to be in hibernation. How about bond market bears? They've eaten...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 4:43 PM
No Easy Answers Today; Still Anyone's Game
Bonds were weaker earlier in the trading session but rallied back...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 10:12 AM
We talked about momentum indicators being 'oversold' yesterday--a possible prelude to a friendly bounce in bonds. If that narrative is going to play ...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 4:13 PM
Looking For Silver Linings Despite Falling Sky
After a huge day of snowball selling yesterday, bonds started...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 11:08 AM
Bonds have been hammered by selling pressure in 2021--especially in February. When it comes to many parts of the financial market, and especially bon...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 4:06 PM
Panic In The Bond Market
It's no mystery that longer-term Treasury yields have been trending higher since Au...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 9:28 AM
Last week ended with snowball selling in the bond market. Given the approach of a holiday weekend, there was a chance that the weakness was overdon...
Fri, Feb 12 2021, 1:10 PM
Snowball Selling in Bonds After Mid-Week Rally Fizzles
We were looking for a friendly correction in bonds th...
Fri, Feb 12 2021, 9:38 AM
As of Monday, bonds had closed at higher yields for 8 straight days. Such streaks beg for a correction. They rarely last longer. The correction bec...
Thu, Feb 11 2021, 3:24 PM
Friendly Bounce May Already Have Run Its Course
Friendly bounces after strong selling sprees are slightly mo...
Thu, Feb 11 2021, 9:27 AM
For the most part, this week has been "so far, so good" through Wednesday. Yields have pushed back nicely after topping out at the highest levels in ...
Wed, Feb 10 2021, 3:23 PM
CPI and 10yr Auction Make a Case For a Near-Term Rate Ceiling
NOTE: charts look weak this morning despite st...
Wed, Feb 10 2021, 9:29 AM
Contrary to some of the wholesale price pressures suggested by recent reports (like the ISM manufacturing "prices paid" component, which rose to the h...
Tue, Feb 9 2021, 3:18 PM
Locking vs Floating After Underwhelming "Rally Day."
The recent losing streak in the bond market made it inc...
Tue, Feb 9 2021, 9:27 AM
After 8 straight days with yields closing higher than they opened, bonds are starting out in stronger territory with a chance to reverse the curse. T...
Mon, Feb 8 2021, 4:03 PM
Reasons For Both Hope and Fear In Today's Trading
Bonds have been in a consistent trend leading toward highe...
Mon, Feb 8 2021, 10:25 AM
There were spooky stories told around bond market campfires late last week. The monster in those stories was the looming specter of the Treasury au...
Fri, Feb 5 2021, 5:16 PM
Treasury Slide Transcends NFP; MBS Outperform
Bond yields rose overnight--well before NFP came out--followin...
Fri, Feb 5 2021, 10:03 AM
The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs. The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 t...
Thu, Feb 4 2021, 3:54 PM
Markets May Be Underestimating Tomorrow's Jobs Report
Today's trading session was rather uneventful for b...
Thu, Feb 4 2021, 10:05 AM
This is a bit of a paradoxical outlook. In short, things have been consistently downbeat enough for the bond market that we're due to see a friendly d...
Wed, Feb 3 2021, 4:20 PM
Bad Vibes Persist For Bonds and Rates
Bonds began the day in weaker shape, thus keeping the threat of an ong...
Wed, Feb 3 2021, 9:52 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the bond market is in the midst of a big-picture correction from the all-time lows seen in the middle of ...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 3:39 PM
Mid-Day Recovery, But Broader Risks Remain
Bonds did well enough yesterday to suggest yields might not be in...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 9:47 AM
Between Friday and Monday, it looked like the bond market might try to hold at slightly better levels than those implied by the recent bounce at 1.0% ...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 3:42 PM
Fairly Balanced Day For Bonds and Fairly Balanced Outlook For Now
This morning's commentary discusses the tw...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 9:14 AM
Bonds find themselves in an interesting position heading into February. On the one hand, there's a well-established tepid recovery narrative that coi...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 5:35 PM
Decent Recovery After Scary Start But Risks Remain
10yr yields were as high as 1.105% at one point today, bu...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 9:40 AM
Yesterday's bond market weakness ran the risk of signalling an end to the winning streak enjoyed since January 12th. Those gains were fairly steady a...
Thu, Jan 28 2021, 3:52 PM
Why Are We Losing Ground Today and What's The Implication?
Due to its timing and size, today's bond market w...
MBS Market Alerts
