Tue, Jul 27 2021, 10:17 AM
After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorro...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 6:20 PM
t was a slow trading day for the most part until the last 90 minutes. Until then, MBS and Treasuries were generally flat. As the day wound down, yie...
Mon, Jul 26 2021, 10:05 AM
Heading into the weekend, the delta variant continued driving a surge in U.S. covid case counts with Friday's 118k+ being the highest day-over-day inc...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 3:19 PM
Ending on an Equivocal Note Ahead of Fed Week
If we look through the small-scale volatility throughout the w...
Fri, Jul 23 2021, 10:26 AM
After a stellar Monday and a big reversal on Tuesday, Wednesday stands out as the week's big shift back toward last week's trading range. Today's ses...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient With Help From ECB
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-frien...
Thu, Jul 22 2021, 10:20 AM
This morning's ECB announcement proved to be moderately bond-friendly. Combined with weaker Jobless Claims data, it's been enough to keep bonds inside...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 5:01 PM
Defensive Shift Ahead of ECB Announcement
Coming into the week, there was some speculation that Monday's bon...
Wed, Jul 21 2021, 9:23 AM
With a moderate dose of weakness in the overnight session, 10yr yields have quickly found themselves on the doorstep of 1.25%--a level that marked the...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 3:24 PM
Intraday Weakness vs Bigger Picture Strength
There comes a time in the midst of an aggressive snowball rally...
Tue, Jul 20 2021, 10:00 AM
Even before this week, the mid-2021 bond rally exceeded many expectations with the 10yr yield's brief love tap of the 1.25% level last week. It's onl...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 3:37 PM
Big Bond Rally Just Got Bigger
U.S. traders fired up the screens this morning to see a substantial bond rall...
Mon, Jul 19 2021, 9:13 AM
The week is off to a very strong start as heavy selling in stocks coincided with a flight to safety in bonds during the overnight session. Treasuries...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 5:09 PM
Quiet Bond Market Leaves Focus on Demise of Adverse Market Fee
Seemingly out of the blue, the much-maligned ...
Fri, Jul 16 2021, 9:49 AM
As bonds have recovered from the high yields seen in March, the tendency has been for rally weeks to end with a bit of defensiveness on Fridays. This...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 3:06 PM
Bonds Keep Running The Table Without Much Motivation
The absence of overt, discrete motivation is one of the...
Thu, Jul 15 2021, 10:34 AM
After Wednesday's respectable rally, we may as well give up the search for too much discrete causality in the bond market. While we can definitely ob...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 4:24 PM
Bonds Recover as Friendly Powell Trumps Inflation Data (sort of...)
Producer prices surged in this morning's...
Wed, Jul 14 2021, 10:03 AM
The bond market doesn't tend to care about wholesale inflation (PPI) relative to the mainstream indices (CPI, PCE), but a number as high as 5.6% might...
Tue, Jul 13 2021, 3:43 PM
How Does Today's Big Sell-Off Affect The Bigger Picture?
Bonds sold off somewhat aggressively this afternoon...
Tue, Jul 13 2021, 9:16 AM
We came into today expecting some asymmetric risk in favor of the bond market due to the recent tendency to take inflation numbers in stride. In simp...
Mon, Jul 12 2021, 3:56 PM
Still on a Fence as Bonds Work Through Early-Week Risks
We closed out last week on a fence about the short t...
Mon, Jul 12 2021, 9:18 AM
Last week ended on a bittersweet note as a surprisingly strong rally was met with big push-back on Friday. The jury was out as to whether we were wit...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 2:23 PM
Bigger Picture Bounce or Just Another Pre-Weekend Pause
Bonds were moderately to sharply weaker overnight an...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 9:17 AM
Big changes in the economic landscape bring big opportunities to consider whether bonds are priced where they should be. The entire spring and summer...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 4:20 PM
Impressive Move to Longer-Term Lows. What's Next?
The centerpiece of today's global trading session was an ...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 8:59 AM
A more and more vocal contingent of traders and analysts began calling for "1.25% before 1.75%" over the past 2 months and they were rewarded overnigh...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 4:04 PM
Traders Shrug Off Fed Minutes to Keep buying Bonds
Hindsight is 20/20 and it now seems clear that traders we...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 9:38 AM
Whether it's an imperfect catch-all term like "tradeflows," or a similarly imprecise reference to the "unseen hand," bonds often find motivation from ...
Tue, Jul 6 2021, 4:00 PM
Strong Start to a Slow Week
Bonds rallied today, both before and after the weak ISM Non-Manufacturing data. ...
Tue, Jul 6 2021, 9:36 AM
2021 began with heavy selling pressure in bonds following the Georgia senate election (which gave full control of congress and the White House to one ...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 3:34 PM
What To Make of The Post-NFP Rally
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) beat forecasts (850k vs 700k), which is normally s...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 9:03 AM
While the headline for nonfarm payrolls (850k vs 700k f'cast) seems like cause for concern at first glance, the bond market is digesting it well so fa...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 3:14 PM
Uneventful Start to Q3, But Tomorrow is a Wild Card
There's always some risk that the first trading day of a...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 9:36 AM
The simple concept of timing is often underappreciated as a market mover. For instance, 820am and 3pm ET can often be sources of volatility simply be...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Failed Breakout Puts More Emphasis on End-of-Week Events
Notice that the headline didn't invoke "the jobs re...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 9:41 AM
Some people may pine for Fridays due to the end of a work week, or perhaps as the start of an extended weekend (as is the case with the impending exam...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 4:10 PM
Strong Data, But Even Stronger Sideways Grind
Bonds started the day in slightly weaker territory but moved v...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 9:21 AM
Since the 2nd week of June, the bond market has been operating in a fairly narrow range with trading momentum being largely flat in the bigger picture...
Mon, Jun 28 2021, 4:38 PM
Monday Giveth
Summertime weekend trading dynamics are sadly a source of motivation for bond markets--especia...
Mon, Jun 28 2021, 10:39 AM
This week brings good potential for volatility as Friday represents the confluence of several individual events that are normally worth some volatilit...
Fri, Jun 25 2021, 11:56 AM
Small, Defensive Shift Heading Into The Weekend
The highest core inflation in decades proved to be no big de...
Fri, Jun 25 2021, 10:07 AM
Much like the CPI data 2 weeks ago, today's PCE data showed the highest core inflation in decades. In fact, we'd have to go back almost 3 decades when...
Thu, Jun 24 2021, 3:26 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Data and Infrastructure Bill
The day began with a morning of lackluster econ data being...
Thu, Jun 24 2021, 10:22 AM
This week's supply of economic data is rapidly dwindling and we've yet to see a bond market reaction worth writing home about. This morning's crop pr...
Wed, Jun 23 2021, 3:58 PM
Sideways Grind Means More Focus on Next Jobs Report
As bonds continue to distance themselves from last week'...
Wed, Jun 23 2021, 9:25 AM
If Yesterday's big to-do was Fed Chair Powell's testimony, today's will be the 5yr Treasury auction. Notably, Powell didn't have a big impact. His c...
Tue, Jun 22 2021, 5:05 PM
No Whammies From Powell. Bonds Like It
Today's only notable calendar item was the congressional testimony fr...
Tue, Jun 22 2021, 10:50 AM
The Fed's messaging is in a state of flux to some extent, as they move away from the "full speed ahead until further notice" and toward an evolving co...
Mon, Jun 21 2021, 4:23 PM
Treasury Trading Trends Coming and Going
Way back in early 2021, steepening was all the rage. That refers t...
MBS Market Alerts
