Wed, Feb 28 2024, 3:50 PM
Despite the release of economic data that sounds like it should matter to markets (mainly "GDP"), the bonds that drive interest rates had a remarkably...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 12:05 PM
The bond market may be data dependent (it totally is!), but not just any data will do. You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like "GDP" and "Cor...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 11:09 AM
At the TMBA’s Secondary Conference in Houston a topic is obviously interest rates and the economy… And the fact that the nation’s interest payment exp...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 8:37 AM
The week ending February 23 produced the third consecutive period of declining mortgage activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Mark...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 4:03 PM
Weird Reaction to Durable Goods, But Generally Slow and Sideways
The economic data drought finally began to ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 2:50 PM
One of the downsides of rates being very close to the highest levels in months is that it doesn't take much of nudge to hit new highs. That was ALMOS...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 12:28 PM
With apologies to those who follow closely enough to know how frequently this notion has been recycled recently, bonds continue grinding sideways as i...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 11:55 AM
Despite the upward path of interest rates, both the CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Housing Price Index (HPI) published by the Federal Housing ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 11:01 AM
A correction to yesterday’s Commentary regarding the next holiday (Memorial Day) being two months out. Several emailed that Memorial Day is actually t...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher to begin the new week, but they remained just under the highest recent levels seen last Thursday. Many lenders...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:55 PM
Auctions Caused Modest Weakness, But Mostly in Advance
As the bond market looks at the 5yr Treasury auction ...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:24 PM
With the market for existing homes struggling amid a lack of inventory, New Home Sales continue doing the heavy lifting for the housing market. Rathe...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 11:05 AM
Saturday was George Thorogood’s 74th birthday, and fans know that he wrote the classic tale of rent collection, land ladies, and payment avoidance. Ti...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 10:07 AM
While it may not prove to be the most relevant market mover of the week, the upcoming Treasury auction cycle is at least in the running. This particu...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:31 PM
One of the upsides of these weeks with boring, sideways movement in the rate market is that it doesn't take much of an improvement to undo several day...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:28 PM
Strong Friday For Bonds Helps Keep Sideways Vibes Intact
Friday ended up being surprisingly strong for the b...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 11:44 AM
It was destined to be a mostly boring, sideways week (to whatever extent "destiny" actually has any predictive value). Perhaps it's more fair to say ...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 10:52 AM
“Alexa, where’s my damn package?” (Page down 3-4 times to the video.) Life is full of surprises, good and bad. Rates aren’t a surprise… The U.S. Feder...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 3:23 PM
The Drift Continues
Bonds only had a small reaction to the stronger Jobless Claims data, despite the referen...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 2:44 PM
Mortgage rates continue making nearly microscopic movements in day-over-day terms, but they continue adding up. Today's increase over yesterday was n...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 1:23 PM
Prospects for the spring market look a bit brighter as January numbers show an increase in both the pace of existing home sales and the size of the un...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 12:14 PM
Rates are "data dependent" and the two biggest pieces of economic data are CPI and the big jobs report. Neither are on today's calendar, but there wa...
Thu, Feb 22 2024, 10:49 AM
Did someone say, “National Margarita Day”? (Splendid timing, especially as vendors and lenders contemplate a rate and volume environment that may not ...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 4:57 PM
Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness
Bonds managed to start the day in modestly s...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 4:20 PM
In the short term, mortgage rates haven't experienced any extreme movement since earlier in the month, but a slow trickle of weakness is starting to a...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 2:36 PM
There’s an old LO joke, telling their client, “When you’re buying a house, be sure to do it with a significant other, and make sure that one of you ha...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 12:29 PM
Bonds had a generally constructive day to start the holiday-shortened week yesterday, with yields rallying in the morning and ultimately holding modes...
Wed, Feb 21 2024, 8:43 AM
Higher interest rates continued to depress mortgage applications last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a ...
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 4:27 PM
Slow Start as Markets Wait For Inspiration
Bonds got off to a slow start despite the holiday-shortened week....
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 4:18 PM
Most mortgage lenders set rates for the first time this week on Tuesday (today) due to yesterday's holiday. Federal holidays mean banks are closed wh...
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 11:26 AM
Two vultures are in a field, eating a dead clown. One vulture says to the other, "Does this taste funny to you?" The last thing you want to hear about...
Tue, Feb 20 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds were moving with a clear purpose at the end of 2023 before embarking on a small, logical correction at the beginning of 2024. In terms of 10yr ...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 5:17 PM
At present, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the jobs report are the two most important considerations for interest rate momentum as far as economic...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 5:02 PM
Inflation Surprises Delay The Decision
In the short term, it's nice to see that today's massively higher PP...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 11:56 AM
If CPI is a 10 out of 10 on a scale of economic data that causes bond market volatility, PPI is never more than a 5. It's a good thing too. All it t...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 11:10 AM
Even though the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the third consecutive increase in its measure of home builder confidence, actual...
Fri, Feb 16 2024, 10:42 AM
It was a sad day earlier this week for anyone who likes food out of a toaster as the inventor of Pop-Tarts passed away at age 96. (Yes, Pop-Tarts were...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:43 PM
Reasons For Hope And Caution Heading Into 3-Day Weekend
First off, "hope" and "caution" have different meani...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 4:21 PM
While weekly mortgage rate indices are pointing out the sharp jump from last Wednesday's levels, daily rates have fallen twice in a row. The peak was...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 11:01 AM
In my travels I’ve eaten some unusual foods, although maybe not this unusual, but here in Boise the talk is about how unusual it is that applications ...
Thu, Feb 15 2024, 9:57 AM
Apart from CPI and NFP there are only a handful of other reports that truly deserve to be considered supporting actors in the current bond market dram...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:23 PM
As is often the case, there are a few ways to look at rates at the moment. In the medium term, we can still take heart in the fact that rates are abo...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 5:22 PM
Refreshing Resilience, But Not Guaranteed
On a positive note, it was refreshing to see the bond market make ...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 12:20 PM
Wednesday is shaping up to be a victory based on early trading, with bonds pushing back tentatively on yesterday's big sell-off. The emphasis is on t...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 11:50 AM
Have you ever been to a chiropractor? You know, where there’s something out of alignment, you describe it to them, and then they work their magic? Her...
Wed, Feb 14 2024, 9:02 AM
Higher mortgage rates hindered application activity during the week ended February 9. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:55 PM
If it feels like there's been an inordinate amount of focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently, today proved it was justified. It's not hard ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:16 PM
Unfortunately, Bonds Did Exactly What They Were Supposed to Do Today
Over the course of the past two weeks, ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 11:36 AM
In our biz, you never want to hear, “deception,” “targeting the elderly,” or “abusive tactics” related to a company. But there they are in this report...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 9:58 AM
It is a very straightforward morning for the bond market, but not in any sort of pleasant way. There was a lot at stake heading into today's inflatio...
